Member Info for Jimmy23

If chariot produce at 100 mmcf per day and an 15% opex , then annual ebitda for their 75% at $13 mcf gas price is £266 million.
Jimmy

Been looking at the corporate presentation and notes from some of those that attended the Agm.
I think the following are important.
1. Onshore gas processing facilities, initial capacity 105 mmcf pd , reference page 9
2. Sub nappe additional mapped prospective resources, 4.8 tcf includes prospect below anchois, page 10
3. Anchois development to comprise a 3 well intial development , page 8
4. Anchois Field additional sands can be tested in combination with
development drilling at negligible additional cost, page 10
5, I estimate sub nappe below the number 3 well is circa 1tcf
6. Opportunity to convert existing oil powered power plant to gas at kenitra, page 10
7. Spain & Europe offers an immediate and practically infinite market for rapid monetisation of any additional discoveries, page 10. Looks like initial gas just for Morocco
8. Evaluating strategic partnering at Transitional Power level to equity finance projects, page 12
9. A shareholder who talked to Chariot management stated chariot were using a $13 mcf gas price and the npv valuation was circa $2.5 billion, report by attendee.
10. Chariot looking at accepting a minority equity investment in the transitional power subsidiary to fund that growth without diluting shareholders.
Jimmy

Hi Rwt.
The latest estimate from chariot is first production in early 2025,
J

What’s really interesting about that interview is that Adonis mentions collaboration with Total and not just Total Erin,
The rns announcement says chariot and total Erin will progress the offtake contracts, yet Adonis mentions big oil Total.
If Total were the offtake partner that would secure the project finance.
Also Adonis mentions this as a low cost producer, so looking good, and not valued at all by the share price.
Jimmy

The key part of the rns is arrangements for the offtake contracts, total Erin are well placed to do that, and that in turn secures the project finance. This is really important.
Jimmy

Hi snott,
What hibergene is getting in the project nour 50% farm out is for total Erin to fund the detailed feasability costs . As they have done this previously they will be bringing a lot of know how to the table. What’s probably most important is that a really big company is involved to secure the huge project finance required to develop this project.
Jimmy

CeoB.
I did say chariot would be in production by the end of 2024 because the chariot cfo stated that in his video interview.
Jimmy

Total Erin have a number of green hydrogen projects around the world so they are avery good fit.
The recent auctus advisers report on chariots green hydrogen project stated that due to the combination of highly efficient wind and solar conditions in Mauritania that production costs are likely to be 30% tp40% below competitor solar powered hydrogen producers.
In addition they state the cost of green hydrogen in Mauritania is calculated to have an operating cost of $600 per mt compared to the current cost of natural gas generated hydrogen of $1300 per mt
Project nour is planning to produce 700,000 mt per year.
Jimmy

Hi CeoB.
The last corporate presentation illustrated the anchois development well locations.
The number three well, yet to be drilled is located at anchois west, the plié prospect and happens to be located above the giant sub nappe prospect below the anchois field. It looks enormous so I am hoping for some farm out news for that drilling at the Agm.
Jimmy

Hi sniper
At some stage the day before the Agm chariot usually an Agm statement and a corporate presentation, possibly after the close.
Jimmy

Link did not post well, it’s at research tree.
Production in 2025 at 70 to 100 mmcf per day
Contracted gas price $12 mcf
Expect lots of news before the Agm this week
Jimmy

Strong buy
https://*********************/dashboard/DownloadResearchNote?id=72_90ee8c83-ae38-4d52-86a1-899da9baef70
Jimmy

Hi Larry,
I suspect the cost of a 14 inch pipeline with an estimated capacity of 200mmcfd would not be a lot more than than the planned 12 inch pipeline with initial production of 70 mmcf.
However the revenue difference is huge.
Assuming a $10 mcf gas price then 12 months revenue , before opex would generate approx revenue of $184 million to chariots 75% , opex is likely to be $30 million giving an ebitda of $154 million
Compare this to revenue from 200 mmcf d is $528 million giving an ebitda of $498 million.
The limiting factor is to increase the size of the processing facilities, which can be financed from year one revenues.
I have not factored in the higher gas prices which would be available for gas exports to Spain.
Each investor can apply their own risk assessment of this but it appears highly likely to me.
The fact that the market capitalisation is less than 6 months ebitda at the higher volumes and the low gas price tells me the market has not worked this out.
Jimmy

I seem to recall the cenkos report used a $0.25 cent transport charge per mcf to export to Spain.
There are two gas powered electricity power stations that consume most of the gas in Morocco, so once they are fully supplied, the balance can be exported.
Happy days
Jimmy

Hi CeoB,
We know from sound energy that the pipeline to the main export pipeline to Spain will likely be owned by chariot. There will be a charge to export to Spain which I understand is about 25 cents per mcf.
Jimmy

Hi Larry
Thanks for your message. I agree phased development is the way to go with future capex funded from cash flows. Do you think they would install a higher capacity pipeline from the beginning and if so what size pipe would be needed for 200 mmcf per day
Jimmmy

Hi fernan
Great analysis., with the extra gas reserves, in my view expect a phased development, initially at 70mmcf per day and by year two add additional capacity of another 70mmcf per day most of which will get exported to Europe , and its this extra gas that will get the premium pricing
This will be a huge cashflow generator even at $10 to $11 mcf per day
Jimmy

Hi sniper
Yes, I am expecting an Rns ahead of the Agm with an Agm statement and presentation
Jimmy

The price of natural gas in Spain for 2023 works out at $60 mcf.
See
https://www.mibgas.es/en/market-results
The conversion factor is 1 mcf is 3.41 kwh
Chariot has prepared it’s npv economics at $10 mcf
There are two power stations importing gas from Spain most likely paying this high price. The price of natural gas in Spain is closely related to the price of lng which in turn is related to oil prices. So chariots $10 mcf is very conservative and yet we trade nowhere near the npv value of the project.
Obviously,chariot are holding back news ahead of the forthcoming Agm next week.
Jimmy

There are two gas power stations in Morocco that currently import their requirements of approx 100 k mcf per day from Spain.
The current price of wholesale gas in Spain is approx $70 per mcf.
Chariot have prepared their npv valuation calculation at $10mcf.
I guess the big issue is what is the gas pricing formulae for Morocco and how will it work.
The last npv valuation by chariot $900 million in respect of 361 bcf of 2c proven gas volumes, which have subsequently increased to 635 bcf.
There is real value here on so many fronts.
Jimmy