Member Info for Jimmy23

Thanks for the comments Keith.
What Impressed me about the drilling of anchois 2 before it was drilled was the combination of Avo seismic anomaly calibrated to a discovery well and seismic spectral decomposition which identified both reservoirs and gas saturation.
We know that the forthcoming mou 2 well is drilling into an Avo identified prospect.
Has pdr published any information on spectral decomposition, as you seem to suggest that GRH has seen it ?
Jimmy

Graham,
A number of technical chart traders have been calling a reduction to current price as it closes a gap in the charts. Combine that with some investors who invested in the last placing at 18p then closing out with a stop loss and you have a lousy day in a bear market.
Time will tell if there is an insider dealing explanation for the decline as you seem to suggest.
I remain long.
Jimmy

I am a long term investor but still do not like to see this drop so substantially below the average broker target price of 60p . It did trade 9.9 million shares to day which is high by recent standards but still only represents approx 1% of the issued share capital.
My guess, is that investors who invested recently at 18 p just closed the position. The volume was not high enough to indicate some impending bad news .
Communication from chariot is really important so that investors are re assured that everything is ok.
As far as I can tell everything is still ok. With production at 100 mmcf per day from four wells this is a very robust project.

Jimmy

BDC
What I found encouraging was the farm in interest.
Jimmy

Good update from sound energy on its farm out progress of its onshore Morocco exploration and production.
Jimmy

Hi amateur,nordell
I too am strongly invested in chariot and having moved my funds out of equities earlier this year, chariot is one of two equity investments I hold.
I have invested for the long term and do not understand why the shares are at this low price.
When I look at gas producers like serica they get recognised as value for their shares and hopefully chariot will soon.
Jimmy

The amateur
So we know that chariot will be producing 100 mmcf per day at a minimum of $8 mcf which will generate £190 million in revenue , with about £35 million of opex, for at least 17 years with the firs 10 years tax free.
This opportunity can currently be purchased for a current market capitalisation of £156 million.
To me this this is a fantastic opportunity with huge follow on potential, risk reward is great.
However for som investors who want complete certainty , buy a gilt.
Jimmy

The lex column in yesterdays FT describes the long term gas shortage in Europe very well. Looks good for anchois production.
Jimmy

Foot and mouth
With regard to the geological risks, the cpr classifies the prospect as being contingent resource, so technically the geological risk is addressed, however reading the cpr it does say that it’s marginal contingent resources.
So what do we not know.
1. We do not know the gas water contact, although there is a reference to a seismic flat spot bewteen mou 1 and 2 that could be the gwc, I can see the flat spot in the seismic in Twt version, but it needs to be validated in depth converted seismic, which I have not seen.
2. We do not know the net reservoirs in mou 2 but there is an estimated 168 meters of gross reservoir and the p50 contingent resources are based on 21 meters of net pay similar to what was seen in mou1. The seismic Avo is indicating both reservoir and gas fill in the mou 2 well location.
3. We do not know the flow rates, but we have comparative flow rates from nearby to make an estimate.
4. We do not know what caused the leakage of gas that caused the seismic gas cloud above the mou 2 well. With two periods of basin inversion this is expected, particularly as the reservoirs are reported as being over pressurised. We know that thin top seals at anchois have acted as good top seals and are expecting the same at mou2 .
5. We do not know if there is reservoir pressure communication between the mou 1 reservoirs and mou2 reservoirs , if there is then this could indicate a gas filled structure without compartmentalisation. If there is no communication it could indicate compartmentalisation between the reservoirs. By drilling into the mou2 four way dip anticline it’s expected to have enough gas to go into cng production which will fund the ongoing appraisal of the field. The licence terms require that 3D seismic is required in the next licence phase which will help address these matters. Given the gas shortage in morroco it’s expected, but not certain that a production licence can be issued before the 3D seismic is acquired.

So there are risks, but on balance they appear manageable and the probability of getting at least 5 to 10 mmcf per day flow rates for cng looks pretty good, which is why I have invested, and there remains some really good upside with more reservoirs provided the top seal holds.
Jimmy

If chariot met with onhym for a week then it’s likely to have been to finalise the FEED .
GOOD NEWS.
J

I agree, the flow rates are the most important to get information on first.
We know that there are 22 meters of net pay at mou 1 and predator have assumed an additional conservative 21 meters of net pay, being 46% of the audited contingent resource , at mou 2
Total 43 net meters, and the referenced nearby well flowed 1.9 mmcf per day from 1 meter gives pro rata production of 81.7 mcf per day, as it’s unlikely that all the sands will have such flow properties as the 1.9 mmmcf per day, I would scale it back by 50% at least, so say 40 mmcf per day, so very profitable with lots of upside

Has the seismic flat spot been validated in the depth seismic map?

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/chariotlimited_chariot-had-a-fantastic-week-hosting-a-workshop-activity-6991756396476178432-kAzW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_ios

Interested to learn what investors think about that message from chariot
What can you see.

Jimmy

Should read GRH not green

Green,
Great analysis.
Have you seen any data that identifies the gas water contact.
Jimmy

I am a long term investor based on my knowledge of the industry and the audited competent persons report of the proven and probable gas volumes.
We are in a bear market and pre revenue companies have been hit hard as interest rates rise. But I believe the fundamentals are very strong.
I am happy for others to correct my calculations with good reason.
That’s the purpose of a forum like this so we are all informed.
Jimmy

Speedferet
I disagree with your analysis, and so does the forward price of natural gas on the Ice market.
Russia previously supplied 30 million cubic meters of gas to Europe, representing 42% of natural gas usage, no way is that currently in lng ships offshore Europe, otherwise the forward price of natural gas for 2024 would have collapsed and it has not.
Jimmy

I view mag Mel as a long shot with a green minister for energy.
Corrie south I think is a better bet , but needs a farm out.
J

The forward price of gas for winter 24 /25 on the ICE uk market is the equivalent of $29.35
Chariot did its economics at $10.o
Jimmy

The importance of the cng project is that it provides the company with short term cashflow and reduces risk of follow on equity dilution, to finance further gas production wells that can then be tied into the nearby pipeline.
Jimmy