Member Info for Jimmy23

Billy ray,
We know there is gas , because the well was logged and the competent persons report confirmed the resources as contingent resources, so the gas is there.
We know there was 22 meters of net reservoir in the mou 1 well, because it has been logged and shown in the predator presentation.
We do not know:
1 . The flow rate from 22 meters of net pay at mou 1
2. The flow rate from the reservoir at mou 2 ,
3, the gas water contact to confirm whether the gas and reservoirs at mou 2 are connected to mou1,
4. Whether gas at mou2 is in a stratigraphic trap linking with mou1 or is in a four way dip anticline being the p50 case.
So there is plenty of upside that needs to be confirmed by drilling.
I am invested because I believe there is enough logged gas reservoirs to justify a compressed natural gas plant and proceed to cashflow.
Jimmy

Bloomberg report that Gasprom have threatened to cut off gas to Europe via Ukraine from next week.
Will mr Ryan take any notice.
Jimmy

Bloomberg report that Gasprom threatens to cut off gas to Europe from next week.
Jimmy

It takes a crisis for ministers and civil servants to change their views even if it’s been obvious that change is required for a long time.
Ireland is dependant on the irl Scottish gas inter connector for its security of gas for base load electricity supply. We have seen what happened to nordstream pipeline, does the minister wish to expose Ireland to the same risk and crater the economy.
However, with a minister for energy from the Green Party then politics trumps logic . So predators most likely chance of getting Meg mall licence is if the energy portfolio is re assigned to the department of enterprise in the December cabinet reshuffle . Possible.
However, I am invested in predator for the testing of mou 1 and 2 and it’s near term production cashflow.
Jimmy

Lancy,
The only chance I see of Meg Mel getting a licence is if minister Ryan loses the energy portfolio.
J

At present most gas used in Morocco is imported from Spain where it is sourced from lng supplies. Current estimate of lng gas to Morocco is $29 mcf . However supply is limited as reported by Bloomberg at.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-21/global-lng-supplies-are-sold-out-for-years-top-importer-warns

Jimmy

I thought AP interview was very good.
With regard to South Africa it’s good to know that chariots jv company is one of only three licensed companies to trade electricity in South Africa, fits nicely with the renewable business and selling clients excess power into the market place which is desperately short of power.
Looks like all going well on anchois . Interestingly he said that chariot has been approached by many companies to farm in and that they would only accept an farm in if the offer was good enough.
In addition he described Soc Gen as making good progress on the financing. Now I maybe splitting hairs here but previously Soc Gen were lead the project financing, so perhaps they are lining up subordinated debt instead of a farm out. The project production cashflow sat 105 mmcf per day could certainly take subordinated cashflow easily.
Good to have options though.
Jimmy

Foot and mouth
The mou 1 well encountered 22 meters of net pay from a shallow and a deep zone which totalled 112 gross meters so an average net to gross of 19.6%
The 13% net to gross was for the deeper sand only.
Predator are forecasting 168 meters of gross pay for mou 2 but have retained the net sands at 21 meters as encountered at mou1 as the cpr cannot attributes contingent resources to sand that has not been proven.
If the same net to gross ratio is encountered in mou2 well then there would be 32.9 meters encountered being 56% bigger than expected.
Got to drill to prove it though.
Jimmy

The importance of the news from the Moroccan newspaper is that it confirms in detail the focus that chariot are bringing to get anchois into production asap. All going well and that article seems to confirm that the year end update will include the completion of some very important milestones.
Jimmy

Billy ray,
It really very much depends on the flow rates to determine if pdr can supply Morocco gas requirements, I am expecting a combined flow rate of 20 to 25 mmcf per day from a combination of both wells. It’s great news for both chariot and pdr if the flow rates are greater as any surplus gas not required in Morocco can be exported to Spain where prices are higher.
Jimmy

Very true nordell that delays in Africa can cost money.
However, the moroccon state is currently importing lng gas from Spain at approx $29 mcf and it’s likely to purchase gas directly from chariot at less than half, so any delay really costs the moroccon state a fortune ,win win for all to get this done asap.
Jimmy

Hi lancy,
Thank you for clarifying that it’s the flow test program which will determine the continuity of the reservoirs between mou1 and mou 2.
In this situation do you expect that the reservoir pressure gradients will demonstrate connectivity between mou 1 and 2 .
Do you expect that there will be extended flow testing and shut ins to establish a flow test area of investigation to prove connectivity of the mou 1 and 2 reservoirs.
Hopefully we will get an update on the final mou 2 well location and an explanation of the flow test programme.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I would not have expected the minister to publish any information regarding a farm out.
Jimmy

Thanks lancy for your clarifications.
Is the mou 3 well to be drilled immediately after the drilling and testing of mou 1 and 2 or is that aspirational for some unspecified time in the future?
With regard to mou 3 I seem to recall that the porosity of the reservoirs was only 8% based on drilling in the area, is that correct.
Jimmy

Hp bob,
I get the impression that predator management are promoting the upside outcome case, but it does have a 10% chance . Is there some new information that makes it more likely, remember we do not know where the gas water contacts are.
Jimmy

Hi fernan,
I agree that having highly connected parties working for chariot in morroco is key to getting to first gas asap.
The fact that chariot has a former ceo of Onee as an advisor is very important as chariot will be selling gas to onee. Good move by AP.
JIMMY

That’s why the strategy to go for early production cashflow from cng is so important to avoid folllow on dilution.
Jimmy

I was particularly interested to note how chariot positioned the discussions to include an update on the new realities of higher gas prices, which will have a dramatic impact on the npv valuations.
Jimmy

"Deliver information these significant benefits to enable FID of Anchois in the first quarter of 2023 and production of the first m3 of gas in the first quarter of 2025 will require a concentrated period of intense technical, commercial, economic and legal activity," Chariot's representative for Morocco insists. "This will require considerable activity on the part of stakeholders in the Moroccan government and Anchorage's gas developers," he continues. "It is recommended that the project parties form a dedicated Gas Commercialization Working Group (GCW) and plan a series of bi-monthly face-to-face meetings in Morocco with the goal of reaching agreement." Three necessary milestones were thus outlined by Chariot:
-" The definition of a comprehensive Anchovy gas commercial development concept and related gas technical and commercial structure by mid-December 2022
-" The setting of agreed bankable terms for the GSA by December 22, 2022 and the full GSA by February 23, 2023" -" The start of GSA negotiations from November 14, 2022"
-And finally, the conclusion of "other agreements necessary to enable financing and DIF by the end of the first quarter of 2023."

He summarizes it in four points: "Europe has a structural natural gas deficit to reduce its dependence on Russian gas, representing nearly 200 bcm per year, there is little gas available or existing infrastructure to fill the gap, the price of natural gas will remain high, a decorrelation of the price of natural gas from the price of oil, which itself has fallen back to pre-crisis levels Ukraine and finally the decarbonization of European economies should maintain this trend. Maamar is convinced that the project "can go into production as early as the first quarter of 2025". It should thus, according to him, "improve the energy security of Morocco in a context of scarcity of the gas molecule, reduce the country's energy bill, ensure the self-sufficiency of Morocco's gas in a horizon of 10-15 years, contribute to accelerate the energy transition of the national economy, export the surplus quantities to Europe, catalyze investments in hydrocarbon exploration in our country by promoting a success story, emphasizing that the Moroccan subsoil is still under-explored and ultimately initiate the Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline project by constituting a local embryo. Chariot's principal consultant recalls that "important work has been done to date in order to meet the 2025 objective" and emphasizes in his presentation that "the success of the project will require continuous efforts in four interdependent workshops": a technical workshop dedicated to concretizing the exploitation concession, an environmental workshop dedicated to obtaining environmental permits, a commercial workshop that should lead to the natural gas sales contract to ONEE and finally a financing workshop whose main deliverable will be the financial closing. If he sees "the opportunity for Morocco" to set itself up "as a natural gas producer" by "accelerating the development of the Anchovy project presents historic opportunities in a difficult regional context", Maamar also warns about a "threat" that still hangs over the project: the "delay". "The delay in the implementation of the project will have unfortunate consequences on all the points mentioned," he said. He explains that "the resumption of exploration efforts around the world leads to a significant load on offshore equipment (drilling units, installation vessels, specialized equipment, etc.)". A loss of slot would delay the project by 18 months Therefore, says Chariot's senior consultant: "Three months of delay (loss of slot) in the project launch can translate into 18 months of delay in commissioning. "We have, together, the historic opportunity to open a new page in the energy history of the Kingdom and to be at the rendezvous of its development," he pleads. In his conclusions at the meeting, Pierre Raillard indicated that the FEED study phase (integrated with SIA and Schlumberger) allows the incorporation of EPC (Engineering, Procurement and Construction Management) pricing into the FEED schedule. The lump sum EPC proposal will