Member Info for Jimmy23

The forward price of natural gas in Spain for 2023 is currently $43.8 mcf
Predator prepared it’s economic for compressed natural ga s for Morocco at $16 mcf.
Let’s hope they go into production early 2023
Jimmy

The forward price of natural gas for 2023 in Spain is currently $43.8 mcf
Chariot prepared it’s economics at $10 mcf and brokers stiffel prepared their economics at $9.oo mcf
Jimmy

Auctus have updated their report and put a value of 1 to 15 p on the latest green power deal announced. Reiterated core value of 55 p.
Interestingly this excludes the value of the low risk additional prospective resources at anchois with a chance of success of 49 to 61% which has an unrisked value of 79p.
That’s got to be of interest to a farm in partner.
Jimmy

Good pint Keith.
And while gas from corrib declines naturally, base load electricity supply is coming from increased coal power at moneypoint. How green is that.
Gas has 45% of the co 2 of coal.
Jimmy

No.

Chariot stated that it expected to have close to 1gw pipeline of renewable energy for mines projects, this new project and its expansion plans brings the pipeline of projects to 780 mw.
These will require a lot of off balance sheet debt but will bring strong annual cash flows after debt repayments by circa 2030.
Jimmy

Predator is dependant on lng prices in Europe to determine the price of compressed natural gas in morroco and natural gas prices in Morocco as well as the mag mell lng project offshore Ireland.
At present and for the medium term the price of natural gas in Europe will be influenced by the cost of delivering lng from USA to Europe.
The trading companies that purchase gas under long term contract pay approx $10 mcf loaded at USA. As explained at
https://www.politico.eu/article/cheap-us-gas-cost-fortune-europe-russia-ukraine-energy/
The cost of shipping is approximately $1.5 mcf .
So to break even the traders must sell at $11.5 mcf plus a profit margin.
At present the price of lng gas in Spain is approx $32 mcf.

Pipeline transport charges from Spain to morroco are estimated at $2 mcf, so before applying a profit margin a competitor selling into moroccon gas market using lng gas needs to $13.5 mcf
Predator has prepared it’s cng pricing at $16.00 mcf

Jimmy

At present and for the medium term the price of natural gas in Europe will be influenced by the cost of delivering lng from USA to Europe.
The trading companies that purchase gas under long term contract pay approx $10 mcf loaded at USA. As explained at
https://www.politico.eu/article/cheap-us-gas-cost-fortune-europe-russia-ukraine-energy/
The cost of shipping is approximately $1.5 mcf .
So to break even the traders must sell at $11.5 mcf plus a profit margin.
At present the price of lng gas in Spain is approx $32 mcf.
The stiffel brokers report prepared it’s gas price valuation of chariots anchois field at $9.oo less $2.00 transport charge to Spain.
Looks like there is plenty of room to increase that valuation model which still valued chariot , excluding exploration and hydrogen at 54p.
Jimmy

Very neat solution for hydrogen cars.
https://www.namx-hydrogen.com/en/namx-hydrogen-car
Jimmy

The article states the share price is trading at a 93% discount to fair value.
Jimmy

Correction, that’s $15 m per year after the debt is repaid in 2030.

Hi surety,
The recent stiffell broker report suggested that the three renewable energy for mine projects would be generating $15 million per year to chariot from 2026.
However capital funding required .
The CFO has previously stated that chariot were looking to take third party equity investment into the renewable subsidiary . Pension funds are looking at investments like that due to its high yield and long term returns.
Jimmy

Bloomberg report that trafigura have signed a $3 billion loan facility with German government to secure gas supplies for Germany.
An obvious candidate to farm into chariots acreage.
Jimmy

I expect an Rns will be issued to advise investors that a new presentation will be issued, there will be price sensitive information in such presentation such as the progress on the feed study, so it will be rns probably at the same time.
The last presentation included a note that the lixus licence included nearly 5 tcf of prospects in the sub nappe. Hopefully we get some details on this and the size of the prospect below anchois.
Jimmy

I certainly wish for £3 per share but that’s a long way off as the market has yet to form a view that higher gas prices will prevail for longer.
Now if chariot or a farm in partner were to drill the sub nappe prospects which chariot estimate to hold approx 5tcf, then I think we can dream of way higher prices.
Jimmy

Also of interest, each $1 increase in the price of gas above $9.00 mcf is worth 15 p per share.
The price of gas in Spain is currently around $32 mcf. So even a small amount exported will have huge cashflow impact.
Jimmy

New broker has initiated coverage .
Summary valuations based on $9 mcf long term gas price
54 p risked valuation of anchois field and value increases to 75 p when the value of the low risk exploration adjoining anchois is included along with a risked value on the hydrogen.
Theunrisked valuation is 144 p.

Jimmy

Older and wiser,
Thank you for your analysis of the potential for increased reservoirs in the proposed mou 2 well.
I agree there is a strong case to suggest that mou 2 might intersect over 100 meters of net reservoir sands provided that the interpretation of sands at mou 1 are indeed the pinch out of a fan reservoir system and that the top seal at the mou 2 is effective.
The reality is that predator has to drill to confirm this.hence the upside.
My analysis was to try to establish if there was a repeat of the mou 1 well results at mou 2 would it be enough to get into production and quickly generate cash, which it would,
Hence the opportunity to invest now.
Jimmy

Yes, looks like our new broker may be having an impact. Chariot certainly needed to market itself outside of the uk where I suspect valuations are better.
Jimmy

An additional point regarding the cove exit valuation was that the gas was to be used to generate lng and hence had a value of circa $2 mcf as natural gas whereas gas in Morocco will quickly to the market at between $8 and $16 mcf .
Jimmy