Member Info for Jimmy23

Fazer,
At the recent investor presentation during the Q and A Adonis stated there was strong interest from those who went to the data room , so you are incorrect to say there has not been. It’s too early to have got a farm in bid, particularly with the recent audited low risk prospects now included in a farm out.
Jimmy

Do we know what reserves are being purchased or what the most recent production volumes have been
Jimmy

Gazer, graham.
I too believe that the share price is way too low for the proven and probable audited gas which they have. And you are correct to ask why are we not trading much higher , in my view we should at least be in the 40 being 75% of broker valuations.
I can’t see an obvious reason, other than the aim market is only putting value on cash generators.
There is uncertainty as to how the green renewable energy equity investment is to be funded and project nour even though it’s several years away it too will need equity investment. In addition even though we know the gas price in Spain is about $32 mcf a gas price in Morocco has not been agreed. Those are the uncertainties as I see them and the market is discounting the value harshly in my view, but that’s the opportunity if you can accept such risk as I can.
Jimmy

Fazer,
Thank you for your comments.
Firstly, just to clarify my comments, you state that my answers are just like an Rns, that’s because I try to verify as much of my answers as possible with information released by the company, as I am not an insider I need to check what I say is consistent if possible with what the company says.
With regard to progress, the timelines for oil and gas field offshore development are in fact long and I believe chariot has made huge progress in months since the anchois 2 well results, in fact it’s relative fas progress, the updated audited proven and probable gas volumes, a revision to the production profile and Feed almost completed, are very significant development milestones.
With regard to lack of rumours of take over interest, I did hear a rumour that they had been informally approached but it was a low ball offer that was declined. Rumours cannot be verified so I had not posted this previously.
With regard to the green hydrogen project, and that it’s years away from cashflow , this is very true, but that does not mean it does not have substantial value. Ap stated that he expects the cost of production to be $1.5 to $2.00 per kg, which is currently economical, and I posted links from electroylsers companies claiming similar costs. Brokers stiffel assigned a value of £100 million to the green hydrogen project, so it seems they have seen the value if the market has not.
I too am a long term investor and very disappointed by the price but continue to hold because of the huge potential.
Jimmy

Hi Fraser,
Here are my thoughts and views on the questions you raised.
1 Why no institutional investors?
There most likely are many institutions who have invested in the many fundraisers in the last 18 months but none holding an amount of shares requiring separate disclosure above 5%
2.Why no finance deal in place after nearly one year on from transformational discovery?
Soc Gen have been appointed as lead bank to arrange the debt finance, reportedly strong interest in supporting the project from both moroccon and international banks. As is common with project finance no financing can be signed till the gas sales agreements are completed.
3. Why no farm in partners yet ?
Firstly before a farm out can occur it’s important to get an updated independent competent persons report on the proven and probable gas volumes. The proven gas was reported in July and the probable gas of nearly 1tcf was reported in the last update in early December. As the probable audited gas volumes are so significant compared to the proven volumes one would not farm out without this having been audited. For those who care to look further go back and look at earlier presentations and note how the B sands cross a minor fault at anchois west and continue to show the same direct hydrocarbon indicators as anchois 1 b sands. This anchois west has now been upgraded to 241 bcf, I view it as a near certainty 85% chance similar to onshore geology in the same basin. These extra probable gas volumes of nearly 1tcf will be of high interest to farm in companies. AP reported strong interest in the data room looking at anchois.
3.Why no takeover interest?
Well we know there has been no formal offers as it would have to be announced, but I suspect there have been informal approaches which were bottom fishing.
4.Why no gas sale agreements?
There is an Mou for both gas pipeline access to both Morocco and Spanish markets and the an agreement in principal with onee in Morocco for 60 mmcf per day, but no announced pricing . A gas sales agreement would require completion of the FEED study as gas delivery volumes, gas composition and pressures delivered to the pipeline need to be finalised. Expect GSA By end of Feb.
5. Why no update on feed?
At the recent corporate presentation it was stated that FEED is almost complete.
6.Why no time scales on the gas to market plan ?
AP did say the project was still on schedule for first gas end of 2024 to early 2025.
7.Why no updates on socgen progress?
The recent presentation reported there was strong interest in the project debt, would not be usual to announce consortium till after gas sales agreements are in place.
8.no institutional or industry interest
Ap stated there was strong interest in the project and the data room had been very busy.
A key value driver for chariots shareholders is to get the extra probable gas volumes drilled which would add nearly 1tcf of gas and allow an increase in daily gas production to 150 mmcf per

Eu has set a gas price cap at $56 mcf, predator prepared it’s compressed natural gas economics at $16 mcf.
Jimmy

Eu have set a gas price cap of $56 mcf,
Chariot prepared it’s economics at $10 mcf,
Happy days.
Jimmy

Hi speculiar
The price cap is targeted at stopping Russian , oil, gas and coal imports to the eu from excessive profiting from such sales. Russia says it will not sell any commodities to the eu which are below the price cap.
So this could in theory create a further shortage in Europe of gas , replacements to be supplied by lng, mostly from USA.
That means that gas prices will be priced off lng, so higher for a longer time.
Germany is supplied with gas in storage at the moment, mostly from Russia, gas consumption in Germany has not declined as much as had been hoped, so the energy crisis will continue as germany will need to replace its gas storage next summer and it’s unclear where that will come from.
From a moroccon gas price perspective , pre Ukraine crisis gas prices were guided at $8 mcf to replace coal which was used to generate electricity. Since the Ukrainian crisis coal prices in morroco have increased 4x .
In my opinion I think we can expect gas prices to be linked to the Spanish gas price market which in turn allows both parties to hedge as required .
Jiimmy

Henry, surfit,
Firstly most oilfield developments are in fact a series of subcontracts to specialised contractors, drilling, pipeline surveys, pipeline acquisition and pipelaying etc. chariot have demonstrated strong skill and experience in drilling, and while subsea alliance will handle much of the other work, there will need to be a project manager and chariot should hopefully be hiring a very experienced expert to do this important job. Would definitely be worthy of an Rns.
I think completion of feed and the agreement of the gas pricing formulae are the catalysts for a farm in which would provide a valuation re re rating . A farm in partner will probably want to sell their own share of the gas with separate contracts, so my thinking is farm in occurs after the gas sales formulae are agreed but before contracts are signed.
What I think will be very interesting for shareholders is that a farm in partner is expected to accelerate the exploration of the lixus licence.
There is 754 bcf of 49% to 64% success to deepen the anchois production wells into the O sands and nobody has noticed that anchois west has been massively upgraded to 241 bcf and a chance of success of 52% , that’s an additional 995 bcf of low risk gas, which must be very appealing to a farm in partner, then add in The sub nappe below anchois which I am guessing is 1tcf. We know from the milestone schedule drilling planned for end q3 beginning q4 .
If successful after a 25% farm out we could double malcy target of £1 in value.
The current share price is effectively the price of an option on that outcome backed by proven gas of 635 bcf of gas,
Remember the geological model that identifies low risk gas volumes by way of Avo and spectral decomposition analysis has been validated by anchois 2 and the same direct hydrocarbon indicators are present in these low risk additions.
That should attract a good farm in which will provide industry validation and valuation and address the risk of further equity dilution.
Jimmy

Gooner
I just look at value and do not predict the share price.
Jimmy

Goonerpete,
The facts are three broker reports have stated chariot is worth more than 55 p , malcy says he thinks the price will get to £1 per share.
I do not predict short term share prices as I look at fundamental values.
I am a long term investor, don’t believe chariot is suitable for short term speculators but each to their own.
Jimmy

Gooner,
It’s easy, if you don’t believe in the value of 635 bcf proven reserves and 754 of probable reserves valued at less than £150 million then sell.
An opportunity for others.
Jimmy

Firegazer
Last ten years have been spectacular failures as previous management relied on exploration farm outs and diluted equity shareholders as they failed to achieve good farm outs. Hence the urgent need to get to first cashflow based on proven audited reserves. Very different now.
Jimmy

Ap recently stated in the shareholder update that he expected the cost of green hydrogen to be in the region of $1.5 to $2.00 per kg to produce.
A recent technology breakthrough discussed at
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-28953-x
How this can be done.
Sleeping giant.
Jimmy

Redetermines,
I do not subscribe to the idea for an industry investor investing in chariot ltd as Ap posed to the exploration licences, because such an investor would not be able to book the share of the proven and probable gas reserves on their balance, which major oil companies need to, as well have the production licence interest as an asset they can pledge for debt, an industry farm in is the way that is commonly financed.
With regard to the values of green hydrogen which total have farmed into, the stiffel report assigned a value of £100 million. Adonis stated they expect to have a cash cost of production of less than $2.00 per kg, that makes it hugely profitable, but no one has noticed.
With regard green renewables they stated they will be taking in third party finance into it in order to preserve cash for anchois.
I am not going to predict the share next week or next month, but 3x by end of dec 23 is very achievable. Where else can you get that with audited proven gas.
Jimmy

Surfit,
Good post,
We know from the recent webcast that chariot are looking for a strategic partner that will have a common % in the anchois field production licence, the lixus licence and rissana exploration interest,
Any farm in interest will provide cash for the non debt financing for field development, drill the O sands below anchois to add 754 bcf of low risk reserves and drill the rest of the lixus licence, to start in Q3 2022.
The companies that have cash and a strategic interest to do this are
1. Serica
2. Newmed
3. Total

All have had interests in Morocco and have cash.
Lots to look forward to.
Jimmy

Charlotte
I believe the next important information to be released is the spudding of the well. I am looking for confirmation that the final well location is to be drilled into the four way dip anticline previously suggested for mou 4 now called mou 2.
We need to let the drill bit decide on the potential of this project as in week market conditions it’s alway s hard to move a share price up,
The mag mell project is a long shot, I like corrib south, but it will be farmed out or not and we have to wait. I have yet to be convinced of TT project economics having visited TT a number of years ago to look at marginal field developments.
Jimmy

Should read at little extra cost

I believe the next piece of news will be the completion of the Front End Engineering and Design. Which should be completed by year end.
The plans to potentially increase daily production to 150 mmcf per day are transformational at least extra drilling cost. That will certainly attract farm in interest.
Jimmy

Redetermines,
Fair comment nobody wants to see another equity fundraiser.
However, the news that anchois 1 a and anchois 3 and anchois 3 a are to drill the 0 sands which are derisked but not proven . This will occur at little cost as they are deepening the production wells but the impact , if successful would increase reserves to approx 1.4 tcf
The importance of this strategy is that it makes a farm out very attractive without dilution of shareholders equity.
Jimmy