Member Info for Jimmy23

Another step forward for the mining industry.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-64248564
Jimmy

Hi Henry,
I am aware of the plan to shoot seismic in 2023 as it was the licence commitment to secure the rissana licence. It’s 2D seismic so not a huge expense.
The new play has not been described previously, but my guess is that it’s the sub nappe.
Jimmy

I am just looking forward to a combined flow rate of 25 mmcf per day from a combined flow rates from Mou 1 and 2 .
Should be able to get close to that from mou1 alone.
Got to wait.
Remember the 1000 ft reservoirs were a safety case , would be pleasantly surprised if it happened.
Hope the rns is to morrow as I hate rns on Fridays.
Jimmy

Explorist,
Thank you for your reply confirming that your assessment of the O sands was based on the may 2021 presentation page 21.
If you look at the bottom of that page it references the prospective volumes and risks as per the netherland Sewell report 2019 and 2020, so it did not include the results of the 2021 drilling program.
The chance of success which I stated for the O sands is based on the new competent persons report which incorporates the drilling results of 2021, which I believe to be more valid.
Regards
Jimmy

Explorists,
Thanks for your comments , it’s always good to get other views.
With regard to the O sands the last presentation in December reported them as 754 bcf with a chance of success of 49 to 61% , page 25 for reference.
In my post regarding production of 150 mmcf per day , this was in response to a question from this BB, obviously it has to be drilled to be proven. The interesting thing is that these extra gas volumes can be evaluated by deepening the proposed production wells at little extra cost.
In these circumstances these O sands have some value to a farm in investor, we will have to wait to see what the industry thinks.
Jimmy

Prospective resources have geological risk
Contingent resources deal with proven resources that are subject to contingent risk associated with development.
Predator report contingent resources at guercif
Jimmy

Of course till something is achieved there is always risk, but I don’t see any technical reason why gas is not produced in high volumes from anchois. I did previously have a concern about the production of water from the reservoirs along with gas given that there are multiple gas water contacts, and water production reduces pipeline capacity. However, chariot latest development plan includes the drilling of new production wells which I suspect will be completed up dip and away from the gas water contacts.
Jimmy

Nigel
Please the cpr states.
Contingent Resources are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from known accumulations by application of development projects, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable owing to one or more contingencies,
So the risk is not a geological risk as to whether the gas is there or not , which is geological risk which you referenced as having a 27% chance of success.
Jimmy

I should add that the development plan includes the proposals to deepen the production wells to test the Low Risk O sands below the main anchois reservoir, which if successfull , which is likely, then it would add 754 bcf to reserves, more than doubling current proven gas volumes.
Jimmy

The deal breaker,
I see development risk as very low as the type of development has been used widely through out the world and the consortium to build it are highly experienced specialists in this area.
The development risk is a cost over run, but given the projects quick payback that should not be a problem either.
Jimmy

Nigel
Mou 2 does not a have a geological chance of success because the gas has been classified by the competent persons report as a contingent resource.
So the gas is there, the risk is what rate will it flow and will the necessary authorisations for production be achieved, which was risked as a 27% chance of success.
Jimmy

Starbanker,
Regarding the green hydrogen project, the chariot milestone schedule indicates a spin out of the division by the end of 2024, which is when the detailed feasability study will have been completed by Total.
The green hydrogen project started as a 10GW project to generate 600,000 mt of green hydrogen and has been upgraded to a 10GW project to generate 1.2 million mt of green hydrogen , indicating a huge reduction in operating costs per kg.
The recent stiffel brokers report assigned a value of £100 million to the green hydrogen project.
Jimmy

Hi fernan
China imports of lng last year dropped 19% due to covid lockdowns and I think that they will be back in the market in force going forward which will provide suppport to lng prices.
Jimmy

Wizard,
Many thanks for an alternative view.
One area of difference in our calculations is that you are assuming 60% of the extra production from the O sands is sold into Morocco market at $8 mcf.
The current moroccon gas market is approx 105 mmcf per day, and I believe sound energy have signed contracts for 30 mmcf, SDX are producing around 11 mmcf and with chariots 60 mmcf per the recent rns that effectively meets the market demand, hence why my calculation assumed an export of any excess .
In any event, both our calculations show what incredible value there is in the current share price.
Jimmy

All the gas is likely to have come from the same source, so unlikely to be much difference in gas composition even if there is no communication between mou 2 and mou 1 wells

Hi ant.
Thank you for your kind words.
Firstly, the current production plan provides for a daily production rate of 100 mmcf per day. The competent persons report identifies additional low risk potential of 754 bcf in the O sands below the proven anchois sands, which will be drilled as part of the anchois development. They have a chance of success of 49% to 64% , although I think it’s a little higher.
If successfull chariot plan to increase daily production to 150 mmcf per day.
So what’s this worth.
The gas price will comprise of 60,000 mcf per day for the Moroccan market. The gas price is likely to be in a range of $8 to $11 per mcf, let’s assume $8 to be conservative.
The remaining 90,000 mcf per day is likely to be exported to Spain. The forward price for 2024 of gas in Spain is currently about $19 mcf.
That generates $2190,000 gross revenue for 100% licence interest per day.
There are state royalties of 3.5% which reduces the daily net revenue to $2, 113, 350 per day for 100%.
That’s annual revenue for 365 days per year of $771372750 less opex of $40 million per year leaves an ebitda of $731,372,250 per year.
Chariot currently have a 75% interest in the field which would be $548529187 ebitda per year, for 17 years.
Capex payback on those assumptions is less than one year.
The current market capitalisation is equivalent to approx 4 months forecast ebitda.
Investors can apply their own risk profile to a revenue stream that about two years away.
Jimmy

The boom is reserved for the days chariot closes up 10% on the day.
Jimmy

With a 12% rise to day it’s an official booooooom.
Jimmy

Hi snott,
I am just a long term investor like so many here and as frustrated as most that the share price was not 40 or 50p based on the fundamentals of what chariot.
It’s good to see serious investors taking out the range traders , so we can move ahead.
Jimmy

Chariot were presenting to institution and high net worths this week.
In the meantime we are waiting on an Rns announcing the completion of the FEED engineering studies for development, should be very soon.
Jimmy