Member Info for Jimmy23

I like the plan to deepen the development wells to confirm the 754 additional bcf of low risk prospective resources.
Jimmy

Nigel,
The target depth of the reservoirs is approx 1500 meters. Water table for local use is probably around 50 to 100 feet, so it’s not an issue.
Jimmy

Certainly chariot was a pioneer for oil exploration in Namibia. It appears that the multi billion bbl discoveries offshore Namibia have occurred in deeper water in a part of the orange basin to the west of chariots former acreage, in water depths of around 3000 meters. The former central Namibian blocks held by chariot likely include prospective acreage for the new oil play and chariot would still have the 3 d seismic covering such deep water part of the blocks. However, it’s a long slow process to work up and drlll such prospects and chariot are probably better of focusing on near term cashflow in Morocco and proving up low cost gas reserves.
Jimmy

Hi GRH,
Your post prompted me to go over the recent presentation again.
It’s worth noting that wireline log analysis in the predator and chariots gas reservoirs are clearly complicated. In the case of chariot the anchois 2 well log analysis was announced circa 4 months after drilling was completed which resulted in the announcement of a further 50 meters of net gas pay. It took predator many months to complete the log analysis of the mou 1 well which resulted in the audited contingent gas resources of 393 bcf.
The recent presentation noted the difficult well bore conditions in mou 1 well and interestingly predator concluded that mou 2 logging
“ Can use to calibrate wash out zones in shallow sands in MOU-1 with formation gas shows”
Could we have more gas in mou 1 than previously thought, could this process be the reason for the delay in starting well flow testing at mou 1?
Jimmy

Smart beds,
Thanks for your post.
One of the great unknowns in this licence area is the gas water contacts and the location of the thick reservoirs to be proven by drilling.
Do you know if any of the wells drilled in the licence area that found gas also established a gas water contact.
Thanks
Jimmy

Disagree Rosso
Morocco is desperate for gas, the cng route to first gas is very fast.
Jimmy

From rezouki et al, aeromagnet and structures
“ In this context, the Guercif Basin appears as an inverted rift basin in which the possible migration of hydrocarbons depends essentially on the geometry and distribution of the syn-rift/post-rift structures (Perrodon, 1995; Aminzadeh et al., 2013). In the northern Folded Middle Atlas, these structures are quite defined and correspond to four tight anticlines (ridges) separated by large synclines (depocenters). They are affected by major faults (Fig. 2) formed consequent to the Mesozoic-Cenozoic reactivations of mainly inherited NE-SW Variscan faults (Colo, 1961; Laville and Fedan, 1989; Fedan et al., 1989; Sabaoui, 1998), namely:
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The North Middle Atlas Fault (NMAF) which marks the limit between the Tabular Middle Atlas to the southeast and the Folded Middle Atlas to the northwest

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The Central Middle Atlas Faults (CMAF) which consist of two main branches

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The South Middle Atlas Fault (SMAF) which marks the limit between the Middle Atlas fold belt and the Missour Basin.”

Jimmy

Kb,
Obviously disappointing there has been no news recently.
However, the previous leaked date for finalising the gsa has passed, it does not mean that the gsa has not been finalised, it just means that an Rns has not issued, and this requires the approval of chariots state partner , which we know is slow to release information.
Jimmy

Interesting article on gas imports at.
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2023/02/354142/access-to-spains-regasification-facilities-to-cost-morocco-euro-2-million-annually
Jimmy

Live I hope,
I believe the bonus payments are from the licence holder to the moroccon state, so it will be a cost, which I expect will need to be paid after the production licence is issued and production reaches the stated levels, unfortunately.

Interesting to note that the project nour design capacity has increased from 10 Gw to 16 gw.
And it’s now being reported as likely to be one of the lowest cost producers in the world.
Its market value in the chariot share price is zero.
Jimmy

I think chariot has moved on from wildcat higher risk exploration, although they probably now know the high potential areas to explore in Namibia,
I think AP has realised the strategy is get to cashflow asap with minimum equity dilution is the way to go.
Jimmy

Mumbojumbo
You are correct, the price of gas has declined in Europe. At present morocco gets its gas from lng in Spain where it is reclassified and piped to morroco . The price in Spain is currently $15.60 before regassification and transport to Spain , so probably a minimum price in Morocco of about $17.00 , so predator price of $16 willlikely be a little bit lower , but not much.
Jimmy

Redbox,
Why are you ignoring the audited proven gas at mou 1 which is to be flow tested shortly. That more than adequately covers the current share price value.
Jimmy

Hi GRH,
Do you have a link to a depth or structure map showing mou 1 and grf 1
Thanks
J

Hi Keith,
Thanks for the great explanation on deep faults and their role on migration of deep gas from source rocks to the shallower reservoirs. Clearly vital for a new hydrocarbon basin.
The issue that I was initially most concerned about was the impact that basin inversion would have on top seal integrity to keep the gas in place in the reservoirs. I understand that the basin underwent two periods of inversion during which time gas in reservoirs would reduce in pressure and expand in volume , causing gas escape at the spill points , hence a possible explanation for the gas cloud in the seismic. So the key to substantial gas volumes is whether the gas escaped through the top seal during inversion or not. Fortunately there are good top seals which include blue marls and gypsum which appear to be working. At the mou 2 location we now also have a I very thick mud sequence as another top seal, so far this looking very good, just need the mou 1 flow rate now as the catalyst for production cashflow.
Jimmy

The testing of mou 1 which is to commence shortly, may inform the potential for flow rates across the southern fault, where gas has also been found, see page 22 at.
https://www.predatoroilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/New-Presentation.pdf

Jimmy

Nigel
I disagree with your analysis and conclusions.
1. The most important factor is the flow rate from mou 1.
2. What is the area of investigation from the flow rate that will prove a gas down to level.
3. Can the flow rate data, particularly pressure data , inform the likely gas water contact,
4, can the flow rate and pressure data indicate pressure and gas communication across the southern fault to the south of mou 1.
5. How much will it cost to change the mud at mou 2 and drill for circa two days, log and flow test. Unlikely to be more than £1 million given that the well was costing $2.5 million . A million has a dilution of circa 4% , for so much upside, I am not worried.

I think it’s increasingly likely we are looking at gas accumulations which are not confined the fan system only.
Jimmy

Isnfer
I believe the price 302 pence not £
J

So if there is gas in grf 1 and mou 1 on each side of a fault, the question arises as to whether the fault is a sealing fault or not.
The gross sand interval in grf1 was 290 meters and the gross sand interval in mou 1 was 25 meters, so it’s possible there is gas communication across the fault and the flow test at mou 1 should be able to see the fault , and possibly gas on the other side of the fault .
This usually requires reservoir engineering flow and pressure modelling to confirm it.
Jimmy