Member Info for Jimmy23

Just noted 1 million shares purchased this morning, looks like the roadshow is beginning to work
Jimm

MEM,
The 1000 ft reservoir possibility was a planning safety case scenario . The gas cloud is above the reservoirs to the east of the well. We know that there was shallow gas in mou 1 so I would expect same in mou 2
Jimmy

Welcome back caterham.
Your estimate of COS compares favourably with onshore rhab basin at 85% .
Predator state that their basin is effectively a continuation of the rharb basin.
We should now more next week.
Jimmy

Hi Keith,
I think I have those lotto numbers already, but thanks for the offer.
I was reading the Cpr last night and remain enthusiastic. I noted that one of the risks they identify is that due to basin inversion the gas would have expanded and leaked out of the spill points, which may explain why there is a gas cloud in the seismic to the east of mou 2 .
What’s your view on the top seals and if the fault to east of mou 2 seals, also, any view on gas water contacts?
Jimmy

Hi snott,
My reading of the situation is that the original 600 000 mt hydrogen annual production was based on old technologies. Oort energy claim that their system substantially increases production efficiency. Oort claim that their system has been validated in the laboratory and is now being scaled up in a pilot plant in morroco .
The bottom line is that if they are now forecasting 1.2 m mt per year from the same power size then unit costs will have dropped significantly. Ap stated he expected cost per kg to be less than $2 ,
I think we are onto something massive here.
Jimmy

Do you lotto numbers also?

I was just looking at recent presentations and comparing and I noticed that originally the Mauritania project was expected to be 10 GW and generate 600,000 mt of green hydrogen. At the Agm presentation it was still 10 Gw but increased to 700,000 mt and in the last presentation that has increased to 1,200, 000 mt from 10 gw. The Oort energy electroylsers pilot work in Morocco must be showing great results.
Jimmy

They previously guided about 15 days to reach Td. Assuming they spud on 1st jan we are then looking at early next week.
It should be noted it may take some time to then run and interpret logs, so at best we may gat some information on gas shows.
Jimmy

I do not see a placing at 12 or 13 p.
Firstly they have plenty of funds , secondly they raised money last time at 18 p and since then increased reserves by over 70%.
There are some swing traders who bring out the dilution story regularly as part of a range trading strategy.
Jimmy

Keith
I looked at the prospectus as you suggest and just see a reference to Theseus .
I presume that company is owned by VC.
J

In reservoirs with standard porosity and permeability the lwd logs usually do a good job, we know from mou 1 that the lwd logs did not work but the mud logs did show high gas shows which were then confirmed later by detailed log analysis to have identified gas reservoirs.
I expect the same again at mou2,
It’s now probable that the first shallow gas reservoir has been drilled.
Jimmy

Hi Keith
I agree that by the time they reach Td at 1500 meters the shallow gas zones will have been logged by the deeper zone will not have been logged. I suspect they may require nuetech to sign off on the log interpretation before a final result is issued. Similar to the way that anchois 2 well was upgraded from 100 to 150 meters after final log analysis.
Jimmy

Speedferret,
I disagree with your assessment that the investment opportunity is less attractive because gas prices were four times higher than a year ago.
Chariot prepared it’s economics at $10 mcf with firs production planned for the end of 2024 . The current Spanish market price for gas for 2024 is currently $18.4 mcf , so it’s 80% higher than forecast. In addition a year ago the anchois field had a planned production volume of 70,000 mcf per day which is now increased to 100,000 mcf per day . If the O sands potential is included this increases to 150,000 mcf per day. So in fact the anchois asset has substantially increased in value.
I appreciate that your comments seem to coincide with your trading range strategies.
Jimmy

Ford
I note that you say that there is no way that pg will shoot 3D seisimic, I would suggest that you look at the licence work commitment which requires the shooting of 3D seismic in the next stage of the licence.
Jimmy

Hi caterham
Many thanks for sharing your knowledge of turbidite deposition. My understanding is that the basin was confined at the time of deposition , so increases chances of a sand rich sequence as you suggest.
We do know from anchois 2 well analogue that predator suggest as a comparator where there are seven reservoir sections and each has its own gas water contact even though the top seal shale thickness are fairly thin. Which is good news in a basin that’s been inverted.
Of course you are right that trying to predict Mother Nature is hazardous .
Firstly, I think that mou 2 will find a thick reservoir section , I am hoping that top seals work as in anchois 2 , but suspect we will have stacked reservoirs with different gas water contacts and possible intra reservoir faulting so that establishing a pressure gradient between mou 1 and 2 may be a challenge. There can still be huge volumes of gas and certainly enough to start cng production which can then finance the follow up wells and 3D seismic.
Of course we could get a surprise and find there is pressure communication between mou 1 and 2 in which case problem solved, but I think that is an upside scenario.
Got to drill to find out.
Jimmy

Thanks caterham,
We know that the basin went through two episodes of inversion, and we know that the net sand reservoirs at mou 1 were 12 and 10 meters which is fairly thin. The geological model says that such reservoirs are the pinch out of a basin fan, so if we get a very thick reservoir intersection at mou 2 then it increases the probability of reservoir connectivity. If the net reservoir at mou 2 is thin then it increases the risk of intra reservoir faulting between mou 1 and 2 and possible reservoir compartmentalisation between the wells , which in turn may require more drilling and or 3D seismic.
This would probably be still good if the flow rates are sufficient for cng, which is a very low threshold and which in my opinion is likely to be achieved.
I expect that the shallow reservoir at circa 500 meters has been drilled at this stage and the Mwd. Logs will have confirmed gas.
Should be an interesting two weeks.
Jimmy

Caterham 7
How do you expect that predator can prove that mou 1 and 2 reservoirs are connected from the expected drill results as pg has highlighted this potential several times. I think it may take another well to do so.
Jimmy

Hi surfit,
One way they can build green credentials into anchois development is to consider the field for use for carbon storage instead of decommissioning it at end of field life.
Jimmy

What was the post in April that he refers to, can’t find it

Jasper,
I think the lack of spud rns was due to timing at year end and markets closing, so pg wanted to notify the market that drilling was imminent rather than wait till early January to release a dud date rns. No conspiracy theory here .
Jimmy