Member Info for Jimmy23

Hi GRh,
I think the following is relevant to the topic of offset wells.
Petrophysical studies and evidence for gas
NuTech has completed for the Company a modern petrophysical analysis of the GRF-1 well. The gross interval between 1,386 and 1,413 metres TVD KB (27 metres) has interpreted gas saturations in the range 37 to 51%, whilst a gross interval between 1,635 and 1,925 metres TVD KB (290 metres) has gas saturations ranging from 30 to 72%. The new petrophysical analysis supports the presence of a gas charge and is consistent with thermogenic gas shows (mainly methane, but with traces of ethane and propane) recorded on the GRF-1 mud logs and the small volume of gas recovered on a Formation Interval Test at the time of drilling in 1972.

The GRF 1 well is drilled to the south of mou 1 on the other side of a fault. Looks like both mou 1 and grf 1 found gas in the same sands.

There is another well further south that has a gas discovery symbol, msd 1 but can’t find any log details of what gas was found in that well.

All very interesting.

Jimmy

MEM
I believe that Pdr has funds to flow test mou 1 at the very least. Since mou 1 has proven audited gas volumes , so we will get a flow rate.
It will take two days to complete mou 2 drilling to get to Td, plus the cost of changing the mud.
I previously posted calculation that indicated that a £1 million net fundraing would dilute shareholders by 4% , so no big deal , particularly if it’s after the mou 1 flow rate. Big prize for very little dilution.
Jimmy

Allez les Vert
J

This will be really hard for a short term trader to get right, because a flow rate from mou 1 will likely happen first and traders selling on good news to get into a possible placing at a cheaper price could well miss out completely, particularly as the amount of money that may be required by Pdr is relatively small for a 4% dilution effect.
I am staying long for the prize of a flow rate.
Jimmy

I suspect that the capex has increased to $500 million gross and that before announcing that they need to secure the gas sales agreements which in turn secures the financing.
I am expecting the increased capex will include three producers which will deepened to include the low risk O sands and increase proven gas to approx 1.4 tcf and increase daily production to 150 mmcf per day. Incredible cash generator at those volumes.
Jimmy

I am still here waiting on news like everybody else.
My views have not changed regarding both the value and the potential.
Jimmy

Some investors are getting very anxious about a small placing, so let’s just look at what a small placing would result in terms of dilution .
Let say predator do a quick placing for net funds of £1 million, which assuming broker fees of say 6% would require a gross funding of £1 063829 , and let’s say it’s a 25% discount to those investors would result in share issues of 17,730,496 new shares to be issued which is a dilution of 4.4% of the current shares in issue.
Assumes all regulatory approvals etc, but in reality it’s very little to get the job done and get a flow rate and much higher share price with proven gas volumes.
Jimmy

Good discussion on the expected flow rate from mou 1
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/

6.6 to 20 mmcf per day.
Jimmy

wB
Hydrogen is not suitable for home heating as it has a low ignition point and could cause home fires. Technical studies have ruled this out.
In my view the priority should be to get mou into cashflow asap and use the cashflow to drill out the basin.
Green hydrogen requires huge investment and would be a distraction from the big prize. Of a a giant gas discovery.
Good to know that the testing equipment has been secured
Jimmy

9 million shares traded to day, double previous day and up 20% .
With good reason.
Jimmy

See page 11 of the 1st feb presentation for a correlation of the 1 meter ? Of C sand at mou 1 to the 26 meters of unlogged sand reservoir found at mou 2.
Jimmy

Predator are now progressing to test the mou 1 well and to establish how far the proven gas can be determined to be from the well bore and if it connects to the reservoirs found at mou 2
Page 20 of the September presentation indicates the expected deeper sand proven gas reservoirs to be flow tested.
Note sand C and how this seems to be the same sand referenced in the last presentation as possibly linking up to the unlogged deep sands found at mou 2.
A good flow test at mou 1 may establish where a gas water contact or spill point is located below mou 1 and possibly if mou 1 and 2 are reservoir connected.
And then there there are the deeper sands below the C sand at mou 1 and their equivalent at mou 2.
No wonder the share price has advanced strongly.
Jimmy

The article states you must do laboratory work first before choosing which of four possible mud types to use.
Jimmy

Jon o.
I believe that Paul just stated that he was waiting on a quote for the mud laboratory analysis , the flow testing team are to mobilize from Canada.
Jimmy

I don’t think the flow testing will be that expensive, as it’s not using a drilling rig. It’s probably a team from Canada that will use wireline tools to perforate and flow test and measure downhole pressures from the relevant reservoirs.
The key will be to achieve a sustained flow and then shut in for a few days and repeat in order to calculate the area of investigation and possibly infer a gas water contact. So a lot of very useful information to be gained from a flow test that will inform the volume of gas that’s been proven.
Paul says he is expecting 50 meters of net pay when mou 2 drills . I hope it is gas bearing particularly with the excellent top seal. Surprised there were not gas shows in the reservoirs drilled near the current depth they stopped. Got to wait . He really has to finish and test.
I think the major issue was not the low rate of drilling, but rather the risk that logging tools could have got stuck and which would have stopped drilling.
The cost of testing I suspect will be a few hundred k, which has been budgeted for.
Jimmy

I liked the bit about the thick seal found at mou 2 would explain the high gas pressures found at mou 1.
I do not expect mou 1 and 2 to be in pressure communication as I think the mud seal separates the two areas, but potentially lots of gas in each area.
A good long flow test needed at mou 1 will tell a lot.
Jimmy

We know that drilling ceased on 22 January, and there was slow drilling for days before that. So I am expecting that to morrow, predator will announce the conclusion of the review of the geology and the recommended mud type required to continue drilling.
Also looking for an update on how they will flow test mou 1 and its time lines . I am expecting that a thorough flow test of mou 1 will require a series of flow tests and shut in s in order to increase the area of proven gas based on pressure reading changes to if mou reservoirs extend to mou 2.
Jimmy

The news of the excellent top seal has upgraded the licence area. In time the general licence area , which is huge, could be a series of big discoveries. However, one step at a time, let’s flow test mou 1 and complete drilling of mou 2 and start to generate cashflow asap to fund follow on exploration.
Jimmy

Nigel,
Just for clarification purposes are you saying that the 25 high graded prospects for SDX total 20 bcf, so less than 1bcf per prospect?
Jimmy

Happy investor,
I agree with you that the focus and value is anchois proven and probable gas.
I am expecting that at some stage chariot will de merge its renewables and hydrogen business and having a low cost destination technology will be value accretive at that time.
Tiny dilution for such an opportunity
Jimmy