The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Thanks Whatif!
I’ve refined my calculations based on your new graph (I’ve utilised some of the data from the graph you issued last week as well).
16,000 (FY 2019 installs) / 4,500 (Jun 2019 av. km/day) x 5,650 (Dec 2019 av. km/day) = 20,089 (20,551 reported for H1, so correction is 462)
20,551 / 5,650 (Dec 2019 av. km/day) x 6,500 (Jun 2020 av. km/day (based on trend line from Whatif’s previous graph)) = 23,642
23,642 + 462 = 24,104
Therefore we should expect at least 24,104 installs at the end of H2 based on Whatif’s data capture (this figure seems very much worst case because if the H2 install rate mirrors the H1 rate (20,551 + (20,551 - 16,000)) then there should be 25,102 installs at the end of H2).
Hopefully the install rate improves, as expected, in the March to June window and that the virus isn’t causing problems for the teams installing the units.
Could I please request another graph at the end of March so we can assess the H2 halfway point?
16,000 (FY 2019 installs) / 4,500 (Jun 2019 av. km/day) x 5,500 (Dec 2019 av. km/day) = 19,555 (20,551 reported for H1, so difference is 996)
20,551 / 5,500 (Dec 2019 av. km/day) x 6,500 (Jun 2020 av. km/day (based on trend line)) = 24,287
24,287 + 996 = 25,283
Therefore we should expect at least 25,283 installs at the end of H2 based on Whatif’s data capture (this figure is supported by: 20,551 + (20,551 - 16,000) = 25,102 i.e. the number of installs in H2 is the same as H1).
As the H2 install rate is faster than the H1 rate (as alluded to by Paul McGlone), it seems perfectly feasible that the 27,000 lower target could be reached by 30th June.
Despite the virus, from the SEE news released in the week, there are probably enough units in the pipeline to reach 27,000. I also can’t imagine that many, if any, of the distributors have been affected by the virus yet. If the virus continues to spread then this may change.
Good luck all.
Any thoughts on numbers installed Smokey2? We hit 20,551 at the end of 2019 so, to be on track to hit 27,000 on 30th June, it would be reassuring to get a figure of around 22,700. I appreciate it’s not an exact science.
Looking at their websites, it would appear that the below (from the list at the bottom of the article) are not involved with vehicle related DMS, but more so with health, retail, gaming, hand held devices, VR/AR, etc.:
Tobii AB
Sensomotoric Instruments GmbH
LC Technologies, Inc.
iMotions, Inc.
EyeTech Digital Systems, Inc.
Polhemus, Eye Tracking
The EyeTribe
I believe an article was posted recently claiming that Eyesight is working with Seat, but have Eyesight actually announced any OEM wins yet? I'm not aware of any but happy to be told otherwise.
Same for Jungo as well?
The reason why I ask is that, with SEE having won 6 OEMs (BMW and GM having been announced), surely most other OEMs will have to follow suit? By that I mean, if SEE was judged to be the best DMS by BMW et al, it seems unlikely that Eyesight, Jungo and Smarteye would have improved their offering sufficiently enough over the last 12 months to compete for the remaining OEMs?
Coronavirus and funding to one side, it does seem likely that SEE will pick up more OEM wins as 2020 progresses.
I completely agree with your short term assessment MrBB. By my calculations (I calculate pessimistically), it will only take a A$10m up front payment from somewhere to take the threat of dilution off the table - This is based on the assumptions that: Aviation, Off-road and Auto still continue to contribute roughly in line with last year, and that Fleet hits its lower target of 27k units on 30th June (and continues that rate of growth thereafter). The other assumption I have made is that SEE’s costs have only increased a little bit (hopefully the 21% saving on the current Guardian run will help in this respect).
Final thoughts – With the concept of camera based driver monitoring already adopted by Bosch, Continental, Veoneer, etc. is there much chance of this technology being superseded in the next 10 years? Is there indeed another technology already trialed and primed for production in the marketplace which fulfils the same essential functions of a camera based DMS? Finally, has any other company successfully marketed a DMS that seamlessly manages the handover between driver/car during semi-autonomous driving?
A few of my own thoughts from the Proactive interview on 12th February 2020:
Trading Update – H1 mainly derived from Fleet revenues. Paul and Naomi seemed confident that SEE will double revenue in H2 compared to H1 – I really hope that SEE meets its FY expectations but, arguably, the SP is probably languishing because doubt exists around SEE’s ability to achieve its targets and, by de-facto, this has increased uncertainty surrounding whether an extra equity raise will be required. However, if RNS’s in line with Paul’s statements start to materialise, then upfront payments will take dilution off the table forever and RFQ wins will all but guarantee substantial revenue increases for the next 5 years – Thanks to Paul’s confident statements and the corroborating evidence posted daily on this BB, I believe game changing news will arrive in 2020.
Fleet – Paul stated that the 21% cost down Guardian production run was starting now which will help expand Guardian hardware gross margins in H2. Fleet installations on track to meet full year guidance – With the cost reduction now in play, hopefully this will help push H2 revenues towards their target.
Aviation – “Really pleased with how things are progressing” PM, “Crew Training Systems for civil aircraft, military aircraft and helicopters” PM, “Systems flying in aircraft” PM, licensing opportunities “very much live” PM, “early stages of development for aircraft so that is super encouraging for us” PM – Paul seemed to be genuinely excited by the prospects here so I choose to believe that we are close to getting some good aviation news (despite the wait…).
Auto – “Momentum that we built out of CES is really paying dividends for us and we have been investing our time in Japan and Korea over the course of the last year, and we’re feeling really really good about our position there with the tier ones and the key OEMs, so I think for us, Japan and Korea are going to become major markets over the course of the year” PM – I hadn’t picked up on the word ‘key’ before, so that would suggest that Toyota et al and Hyundai are indeed up for grabs. With SEE having already won BMW and General Motors amongst others, the odds are good that SEE will take OEM’s in Japan and Korea… is there anyone else in a better position (genuine question)?
CES – “Very very clear that camera based monitoring systems will be in all cars, and that’s not just driven by regulations… but all of the other technology that’s going on inside and outside of the car relies on accurate eye-tracking… necessary to enable all of the new tech that’s in cars today and will be in cars in the future” PM – The patents discovered by Johnchucka reinforce this statement.
Apologies if this has been posted before, but this paper provides a very compelling case for DMS and offers up some wider uses for in-vehicle eye-tracking.
https://www.abiresearch.com/market-research/product/1018540-driver-monitoring-systems/
Thanks for the feedback all.
I have been following the SEE story for over a year and deem it highly likely that 2020 is going to be the year its ‘stars align’.
If SEE takes elements/all of VAG, Japan and Korea, then it could feasibly command well over 50% of the light vehicle market by 2024/25. Combined with fleet and aviation (and the potential hand held device, VR/AR, cranes, ferries, etc. markets), the potential year-on-year revenue growth rate for this company could be incredible.
If I find any other useful information I’ll let you all know. Please keep up the good work.
“By 2023, the BMW Group will have 25 models with electrified drive.”
Could it be argued that a proportion/most of these models will have a SEE DMS? Seems a lot of effort to go to to then not bother incorporating your new technology.
With GM pushing Super Cruise into a similar number of models in a similar time frame, are we in the process of witnessing the start of a tech arms race (thanks to a lot of the researchers on here, we know a lot of this tech needs/is likely to utilise eye-tracking)? If so, I would expect announcements from all the other OEMs very soon, otherwise, in 2022/2023, their market shares could start suffering.
https://discover.bmw.co.uk/article/the-new-all-electric-bmw-i4