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I agree with your thoughts Urban. There’s a lot going on at SEE we don’t know about yet, which is why I’m happy to hold through the economic gloom. I’m confident patience will be rewarded here within the next year or two.
Net Assets A$64.6m = £32.84m (assume that this figure remains the same (assume upfront payments offset cash burn))
At 2.775p a share, our market capitalisation is £93.38m.
£93.38m - £32.84 = £60.54m so this is what the market currently values our offering at.
I think, at the moment, that the company is going to hit profitability between 1st July 2021 and 30th June 2022 (this guess is based around some success in Japan, steady progress in Fleet, and the continued monetisation of SEE’s IP through licensing deals (3 or 4 more deals, between now and 31st December 2021, of a similar value to the one last week)) - With DMS now critical to the future of almost all forms of transportation, this represents my lowest expectation for SEE.
With PM’s share rewards ranging from 7.6p (1st July 2021) to 9.5p (1st July 2022), and Cenkos’s current target price of 7p for Auto (14p if Fleet and Aviation also convert), I believe SEE and Cenkos are also expecting profitability in the same sort of window (of course, if the Qualcomm connection bears short-term fruit then this changes things!).
7.6p a share gives SEE a market capitalisation of £255.74m.
£255.74m - £32.84 = £222.9 which is now the estimated value the market puts on our offering around the point of profitability.
What our first profit looks like is impossible to tell, but I’m working on a SP of over 10p (mc £336.5m) in calendar year 2022, and over 20p (mc £673m) in 2023. To me this sounds about right but I’d be interested to hear what other people are predicting?
Qualcomm use Tobii eye tracking in their VR headsets but I can’t find anything suggesting they are collaborating on hand held devices. Can we assume that SEE’s data may be helpful to Qualcomm in developing eye tracking capabilities for hand held devices? I really hope so!
https://www.tobii.com/group/news-media/press-releases/
Apologies, I should have been less ambiguous. PM posted “#seeingmachines #thales” so I took that to mean we had worked with Thales on, what I assume in the photo is, the CTS. My main reason for assuming a collaboration is PM did not include #BAE in his post.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/autosense-nz_nzroadsafety-covid19-activity-6650209675793010688-TyzA
BMW’s EV message hasn’t changed yet.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/bmw-group_sustainablesunday-activity-6649949499189936128-amKY
Ties in with some of JC’s past patent research.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/veoneer_the-dms-driver-monitoring-system-tracks-activity-6647852466421530624-tcwi
The other thing to remember is that the population of the world hasn’t just capitulated when it comes to trying to generate business. Efficiency savings will be found, business models adjusted, social distancing measures introduced, contingency plans adapted and plans drawn up for getting back to normality as quickly as possible. Human intuition and competitiveness will see this right in the end... hopefully sooner rather than later!
My estimation of SEE’s forecast earnings is that Fleet was going to drive the majority of FY20 revenues. My hope is that the world gets back to normal quickly enough for the expected auto revenues to be realised in FY21. As soon as it’s safe to do so, the OEMs will get back to business and will look to get edges on their competitors where possible (there won’t be a lathargic bimble back to work, they are going to have months to plan getting their supply chains and plants back to normal to take advantage of pent up demand).
As alluded to by SEE, the Guardian installation rate is going to be affected by C-19 but I don’t believe that infers that the installation rate has nosedived. Indeed, if we look at the countries covered by the 14 channel partners:
Asian countries (Thailand, Taiwan, SE Asia) seem to have the virus under control;
US and UK in more advanced stages of infection spread so there’ll likely be a low rate of installations from March to June;
South Africa, Dubai, Chile, Turkey, Mexico, New Zealand and Australia are, in comparison to the US and UK, much less affected at the moment (this may change as the next couple of weeks passes).
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-maps-and-cases
The confidence with which the results were released in light of the Coronavirus was a step change for me. The content was also very positively written, with a ring of inevitably in places - I really liked this “The Company's eye tracking technology has been trialled in several test flights, paving the way for licensing opportunities into the multi-billion dollar onboard avionics systems market and strongly positioning Seeing Machines for airborne support system tenders for pilots and crew.”
I’m not surprised the SP is responding well. The reported revenue was almost entirely supported by Fleet & Off-road. What does that say about the momentum behind this part of the business?! Based on my own calculations and my own opinion, my decision to invest in this company is based around SEE not needing another fund raise. In my opinion again, any upfront payment from now on guarantees this.