RE: Strong Lithium Demand15 Sep 2021 11:48
Three years of pain and the analysts got it wrong by a country mile, their 2025 forecasts have been smashed this year in China alone,
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/morgan-stanley-claims-lithium-price-plunge-45-2021-power-more?articleId=6375049628567502848
Over in China, BYD shares, a major Chinese battery and electric car maker fell 3% but continue to trade more than double their price in 2015. Morgan Stanley’s report goes on to forecast spot lithium prices to fall by around 45% by 2021 on the back of around 500,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) being added to global supply by 2025.
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3148669/chinas-booming-electric-car-market-prompts-lithium-producer-and
China’s demand for lithium carbonate equivalents (LCEs) have soared fivefold this year to 668,900 tonnes, from 132,900 tonnes last year, according to Haitong International’s research report in May.
“EV batteries will be in high demand, and a supply shortage can be expected if the major battery manufacturers and material suppliers do not actively expand their capacities,” said David Zhang, a researcher of automotive industries at the North China University of Technology. “Leading players have better opportunities to chase the rapid growth in the coming decade.”
And why Ganfeng are getting Sonora cheap!
That’s 500,000 plus tonnes added to China alone so far in 2021 – so globally by year end ____?
Morgan Stanley forecast LCE 2021 in march 2018
Morgan Stanley forecasts the price of lithium carbonate will fall from US$13,375 per tonne to $7,332 per tonne by 2021, and then towards its marginal cost of production at $7,030 per tonne thereafter.
Nearer $20,000 at present!