Member Info for JG68

Anyone who is technical think this is in play?

Bull trap occur when there is a temporary halt or reversal in an upward price movement in financial markets, creating the false impression that it might start declining (become bearish). Traders may mistake this dip as an opportunity to sell off holdings or take short positions, in anticipation of sustained downward movement.

Unfortunately, the trap is quickly laid when the market resumes its normal upward path, taking traders by surprise. A "bull trap" refers to an imaginary trap set by a bull to capture any perceived threats, deceiving traders who expect bearish markets and leading to losses for those who were fooled into following its false signals.

No just the HY results if that was aimed at me!!

Well I'm adding here and expect a complete change in sentiment come February, similar to last year.

From Net debt of $3.6 billion, accounting for Marketing-related lease liabilities of $1.0 billion, H2 cash outflows of $6.9 billion for the EVR acquisition and the $0.8 billion for the 2nd tranche of the shareholder distribution due, all else being equal deleveraging of just $0.3 billion would be required to reach the reset c.$10 billion net debt cap under our framework for excess return top-up payments, compared to at least $5.3 billion of deleveraging that would have been required under the original demerger scenario.

"This relatively modest gap of $0.3 billion, together with the $1 billion Viterra cash disposal proceeds expected to be received over the next several months and noting the healthy current spot illustrative annualised free cash flow generation of c.$6.1 billion, augers well for potential top-up shareholder returns, above our base cash distribution, in February 2025.

At least this board is readable again, apart from the super ramper.

Hopefully many of the new posters that made accusations, clogged it up with tripe, have sold up and moved on. Couple posters appearing that were here long before all the dregs.

You know things are ropey when the price doesn't move on a 155k buy, but moves down on a 25 sell!!!

Missed that boat Mary.

Trying hard not trade stocks now, know what you mean about lowering averages etc, but for me by trading rather than just holding it makes me more fear based and hyper vigilant which leads to bad decisions!!!

Likewise, and everyone who contributes here.

Invaluable to me, I'm not as accounts savvy as most of you.

WT / Changeofpace

Great points.

And yes it's sentiment based rather than performance/headwind related which I guess it's been for the last few years.

WT

I have an overly large holding for me (appro 175 shares in total), and like earlier in the week, it is approx 1 year since I was last BE and didn't derisk last Jan, then it halved by HY!!

My concern is more about the markets in general and targeted shorting short term.

Just get very twitchy when I get to this point!!

I'm getting perilously close to just halving my holding here, on what should have been a stable week, it's just being targeted again as soon as it's back in the 250.

OK miss out on any % gain on any NA sale, but something feels off here.

WT

So a 10% revenue decline equals an 80mill provision for that year?

20 Non-current assets – trade and other receivables continued

• a 1 percentage point reduction (or increase) in forecasted annual average revenue in each year from 2025 to 2030 would require a

reduction (increase) in the contract asset balance of c. £8m (such that there would be a non-cash charge (credit) in the year of this

amount as a result of the change to the contract asset), and would reduce (increase) the cumulative future profitability of the contract

by approximately £11m for the period 2025 to 2030); and

• a reduction (or increase) in total revenue in 2025 of 5% (with growth rates for the period 2026 to 2030 remaining unchanged against

the sensitised base from 2025) would require a reduction (increase) in the contract asset balance of c. £14m (such that there would

be a non-cash charge in the year of this amount as a result of the change to the contract asset), and would reduce (increase) the

cumulative future profitability of the contract by approximately £20m for the period 2025 to 2030.

"It remains clear that all parties are

motivated to arrive at a sustainable and commercially viable conclusion."

Is a year not enough time to come to an agreement here, given this is probably considered as critical German infrastructure?

Maybe MCG should call their bluff if it's taking this long and having such a negative impact on us / shareholders etc

Seems like they need us more!!

WT

Thanks will look through to the relevant pages you mentioned

Appreciated

And then the lag effect of increased pricing will show the following year, so maybe there won't be 50 mill net savings next year, but it will show pro rata from 26?

Genghis

The cost savings are still ample to absorb the additional labour costs, i would have thought.

And are we not expecting an increase in profitability from the US?

WT

Just to clarify what you're concern is in layman terms, are you suggesting there's a risk of a repeat saga of last years results where another large German provision is required again, a year on ?

Is there anything to stop MCG just pulling the German contract if the business isn't viable as result of these discussions ( they hinted at a viable business solution in the recent update)?

And yes it is an uncertain risk, but this all excludes any positive growth from the US and Alsa.

Isn't this German risk known already and priced in accordingly?

There are also 50mill organic coat savings already on track for 25, there are some hidden cost savings Helen mentioned in the UK not accounted for at HY there will be potential interest cost savings from rate cuts.

Can't see how the adjusted OP wont be at least the same as this year, probably better 185-205.

Usually they don't do a pre close TU, given the lingering uncertainty, one wouldn't go amiss and might stop shorts increasing on the unknown in a fear driven market.

Seems like the market is now reacting to this from the Oct TU. Doesn't read well and probably lost somewhat in the takeover euphoria.

The Company has also had extensive discussions with its International Developmental Organisation ('IDO') clients during October. As previously highlighted, IDO budgets have reduced this year but it was still expected that volumes would increase in Q4 due to usual seasonality. There is now reason to believe that this pick-up in volumes in Q4 is unlikely to materialise owing to changing global macro-economic and political factors. The Group believes this will reduce expected IDO volumes significantly in 2024 with an element of this likely to be deferred into 2025.

Fingers crossed for headroom then.

Hopefully he's in touch with Adolfo and knows more than he's hinting at.

Not good news to see that.

Can see Mobico doing a super special, get back in the 250, then get demoted again.