Member Info for JG68

Strange time to release the news also

Dim Jim lmao

Aim

Inflation was always expected to tick up towards the end of the year, this was forecast b4 it dipped below 2%, mainly due to energy prices cap increases and a few other things.

I think 2.7/8% was forecast and to gradually fall through 25 back to a stable 2% in 26.

So any increase is short term noise, we'll see how markets react but is expected imo.

Problem the bank has is confidence, no growth, the economy needs a boost so imo 25 still on the table.

Or dot plot for 25 will be 5/6 cuts instead of 4 that's priced in imvho imho imo imo

Aim

Everyone in the city knows this is coming out of a very long turnaround transformation, and unless there is a marked reversal or need to further extend the turnaround, they all also know that at 16, 17, even 19 pence, eventually the sp will be multiples.

You might make a few quid being short tomorrow or even Jan/Feb but that's about it mate!!

And I still think a 25 cut is on the cards Thurs given how poor consumer sentiment is and it's the banks Job to prevent recession, not exacerbate it.

I'm half expecting a special dividend in February based on the HY results statement " surplus available funds for shareholder distributions above that of the dividend"

I don't know if this is significant or even whether there is a choice of timing re the last BOD rns and substantial vesting for April 25?

Also just a hunch but I wonder if the market is keeping us on a tight ish range possibly related to Pablos 1.2 mill purchase at 17.19 until he proves himself.

And thinking about it, possibly AH will make a bullish but quite flexible forward looking statement to try and temper the awful sentiment in markets right now, and any possible sell off if the market chooses to focus on something like additional NI costs or revenue decline etc

Something along the lines "confident of FCF neutral H1 25, but cautiously optimistic of fcf generation H2"

Then we've got half a chance tomorrow imo

Trisor

I've always maintained that this will not rerate until fcf guidance can confidently be given in March and / or there are visible tangible results in the numbers.

It's only a matter of a little more patience.

I derisked a huge chunk at 20p but am just waiting to fully load up again in the ISA.

The way the markets have been so weak in this hole of a country recently, I think any santa rally will come maybe Thursday/ Friday and inbetween Xmas and new year. Just a guess though.

Trisor

It's on Baroninvestments x page, price lowering not actual downgrade.

Price downgrade by one of the brokers today, not sure which yet.

Convenient day b4 tu.

If that were true I'd expect an avalanche of shorts.

Labour are totally destroying sentiment in this country, consumers, businesses, stock markets, can't see where any Xmas rally comes from here.

Wouldn't be surprised if BOE hold rates, and I hope and pray they cite Reeves budget if they do.

What a dogs dinner this week has been

It was obvious the share would be shorted ...no dividend, high finance costs, ...fund manager investors looking to get yields elsewhere or in fixed income ....

But why now are they so active again, week we're back in the 250, with the potential for disposal news, rate cuts next year, probably more than is priced in given lack of growth in the UK.

Will become a battle between Reeves inflationary budget and BOE

I have to say that given how critical the German contract was to fy23 and will be to fy24, it's most disappointing that no viable solution has been found in a year. The co.ments about being motivated to reach a viable solution seem unfounded now.

As others have mentioned, when does there come a point when MCG can legally enforce a get out due to costs suffered by the company/ shareholders all for the sole benefit of the German commuter.

Same applies to the UK, putting on loss making services to satisfy the commuter and UK government.

It seems these two countries are using us as a charity. Get tough, this is a business. Please.

Changeofpace

My tuppence is if you're prepared to hold for say at least another years, write off the funds invested so to speak, then that's an acceptance of sorts that it will all come out in the wash. One way or another.

Either way, German contract agreed this year , all good, next year a nice uplift.

US sale soon, or US doing so well no need to sell, either way the transformation will continue.

Know exactly how you feel, I'm now giving this until 27 when they stated they can deleverage organically, and everything in between a bonus, as long as no more covid!!

Wouldn't be at all surprised if there wasn't short increases yesterday.

It's gone from relatively stable for months to exactly how it was last time we were in the ftse 250.

Difference being now they're clearly either gambling on no sale/ no german contract resolution, whereas before they were betting against performance.

Or just hedging. But it's so weak every day now this week.

Pedro

And last year when it bottomed in October and rallied until January and the FY delayed results/ Germany provisions review.

I remember doubling my position last Oct 23 at 58p, and finally got BE in January but just held and it fell from 92 to 47.

That is when Mary's add and trim would of worked. Sold 50k at 90, bought back 50k at say 50, 100k shares in that ISA averaged at 70 with 20k to spare.

Guess the difference is operational improvement, new cfo, excellent NASB bids year, and hopefully the last of the headwinds NI/ labour costs onwards and Germany.

But like smokey said, hold through short term pain.

Well i reckon realistically there is 6 trading days to update on the disposal before Xmas.

Yeah me too Istabrraq despite my obvious twitchiness today.

I guess it's about balancing risk and trying to be prepared for all short term scenarios.

I accept that BOD are probably in extended negotiations with hopefully suitors on a disposal and German contract negotiations both which are critical to sentiment here for probably the next 6 months.

Ie if the no agreement re the Germany contract, potentially an 80 mill provision at FY based on 10% revenue decline, 8mill per % either way.

And unless a favourable disposal, then NASB needs to show significant improvement to satisfy markets that they can deleverage organically.

It will just be so frustrating if we have to suffer another 6 months of downward pressure again next year.

LWHL

I have them more like Boy George darlin !!

Apendragon is clearly a bit stupid.

Saying things like 120, less than 100 on a company that will still increase its profit yoy really shows a low IQ.

Pets at Home now forecasts "modest" year-on-year growth in underlying pretax profit from the GBP132 million reported in financial 2024, revising its earlier guidance. In August, it anticipated full-year pretax profit for financial 2025 in line with market consensus of GBP144 million.