Member Info for JG68

Given that without the NA disposal they have a significant presence in NA, would it not be better to list in the US, where astute US investors would see the unlocked value if not only NA but Alsa also?

I'm just thinking that without a sale, abd even with continued improvement, I can't see anything but short liquidity in the UK for the foreseeable.

So what's happening on L2 now ?

No buys since b4 2pm

Savage

Actually I'm hoping for 12.90!!!

But later today there will be some mammoth UTs I'm certain off.

It's always going to be volatile today, it's triple witching, not cpi specific, all stocks will be hit when traders close their options.

Nothing to see.

My next buy order set for 13

Aimmaster

Trump is saying that it will be the "Biden shutdown" by the way.

I think a measure of positivity will return after Trump gets started on 20th.

Hoping that xi xin ping accepts the invitation, and they work through their differences.

The wars will end

Possibly a gdp rebound after Xmas shopping/ sales, then suddenly the world's not so bad anymore.

Not too bothered about Aim and qube the big shorts, small in the scheme of things.

Not too much further to fall imo, my 2 buy orders are set for 13, then if they hit will set another 2 for 12, rebuild my current down position slowly this time.

Trenners

I can feel the uncomfortable nature of holding a large paper losses.

If you don't need the money, look it like it's a fund that's starting with a handicap.

Let's not forget AH and Pablo purchased a wedge of shares, AH is not a fool,,and despite what others may think about cpis longevity, I can't imagine AH paying out so much of his own money in tax on his awards, over 100k cash, if he felt there was any risk of him losing it.

It was a brave thing to do rather than sell half to pay tax, and is the sign of a strong leader showing conviction.

As much as is feels awful now.

Aimmaster

Did I read that right that you've gone long??????

As for Labour

Growth down

Interest rates will stay higher for longer

Mortgage rates up

Inflation up and will climb because of Labour

Bond yields up, cost of government borrowing rocketing

Likelihood of UK going bust by end of 25/26 significantly increased, Labour depression looming

Business rates up

NI up

Taxes up

Consumer confidence down

Train drivers pay up

This stupid excuse they keep going on about 22 bill black, what rubbish , it was around 9 bill which is normal until Reeves gave all the lazy union members ridiculous pay rises.

Savage

That's the point, they are giving themselves flexibility as to what to do with the capital one monies.

Plus we don't know what FY ebitda actually is.

I understand their point on revenues affecting cashflows, and time of receipt of payments also impacting.

And gocpi

I also just about get what they're trying to achieve by this statement

if we’d held the previous guidance this would have created large swings within our working capital and debt position so we’re avoiding this to have more a more sustainable position going forwards –

This is beginning to feel more and more like a kitchen sink job.

Let's not forget how much money the BOD have invested here also.

Definitely worth another year imo

We've had a series of positively received news, honeymoons up.

Savage

No chance of cash raise or insolvency given negligible net debt, that is a hopeful stretch on your part.

But I do agree that the Jury is out, and if they are not in a position to say definitely without a doubt, FCF generation moving forward in the October update, then there serious issues.

If you think about, their worst scenario is to end 25 in a net debt position, let's say ebitda is 100 mill and they retain 1 x ebitda debt, which is essentially a worst case cash outflow scenario for 25, then as long as the cost efficiency feeds through for beginning 26, there's no issue.

Talk of insolvency is madness.

Fwiw

I think they will pay off some debt in early 25, retain funds to be in a net cash position, in order to see through what seems like an additional but final year of this 7 year turnaround.

They could choose to extend the fairly smallish debt considering where it was, and retain the funds to give them optionality as they claim

I derisked significant a few months ago, but the 240 odd k shares I've got here, are staying at least 1 more year.

They say investors should really be giving 5-7 year time scale, hence schroders patience.

FWIW anyone, this is what I got from IR

Taking your points below, the cash outflow has worsened by £30m from August reflecting the reduced revenue performance (and reduced cash flow this drives) and taking a more sustainable approach to working capital management. On the working capital management point, if we’d held the previous guidance this would have created large swings within our working capital and debt position so we’re avoiding this to have more a more sustainable position going forwards – but I appreciate in the short term that has created disappointment around the latest guidance.

Regarding the loan maturities in early 2025, we’ve previously said the Capita One proceeds provide options when we look at this repayment and the Group’s funding – that position is unchanged.

For the £250m cost savings, we’ve said these will be actioned by the end of December 2025, that means we won’t see the full year benefit from this until 2026, but these play a material part of delivering positive free cash flow from the end of 2025 into 2026.

In September they said:

retain (directly and through its subsidiaries) the remaining 103,686,385 shares in GMS (representing a 9.69% equity interest in the Company). Whilst acknowledging that circumstances can change, Seafox has confirmed that it has no current intention to make further disposals in the short-term, given the positive outlook for the Company.

And now they're 4% ish.

The problem I see is that hawkish fed comments and dot plot only really affects us with regards potential suitors, but when boe undoubtedly take the same route, minus a cut, in an already terribly downbeat sense of how things are here, sentiment and boe policy will drag us right back down.

We're left with trying to prove to an unforgiving market that our business is improving and can navigate the mayhem , sale or no sale.

Possibly Trumps inauguration will finally change world sentiment, even trade with China.

After all xi win ping or whatever his name is, has been invited!!!

Are you mad, did you see how US finished tonight?

Limit set for 60 tomorrow

Won't be payback tomorrow that's for sure.

Got my next buy set at 197, fear it will hit tomorrow.

Been a bloodbath, i fear we'll be testing low 70s tomorrow

Yeah but signalled only 2 cuts next year, so this is on a knife edge really, anyone looking for finance or yet to be agreed.

Looks like no santa rally this year if we follow the US markets tomorrow

I guess I'm wondering because its a missed previously stated expectation that will have come and gone. Ie they said they expected the process to conclude by YE back in April.

Probably not important in the scheme of things!

Do people think we've had any chance of a NA disposal update this year, or are we thinking after tomorrow ?

Do people think that on days like this, it's just the city sending a message to moulding , what an unprofessional g1t he is, last minute changes etc ?