Member Info for JG68

Pokerchips

See what your saying, but the same can be applied generally from beginning of the year around 132 ish to the day before results 1 March 126 ish. Barely a 5% swing and then results were received positively, until Liberium downgraded to a sell stating their concerns about leverage which the market listened to, and now even decent updates don't make any difference.

It just seems that the market is giving certain companies a message, " you can't sustain that level of debt in this macro environment "

At the end of the day, we are where we are, and hopefully this 2 year downtrend will eventually reverse.

I topped up my 100k plus holding 3 times last week, at 115, 111 and 109, I'm now in a situation here where I'm uncomfortably too heavy here, but will just hold and take the dividends, and hope there isn't some cash call.

I'm done averaging down on any of my holdings now, and although my averages here are 123 in the ISA and 127 in my trading account, so not too bad considering, not buying 1 more share, especially here.

Genghis

Agree with what you say, but I'm generally referring to all UK companies that have high debt and the market is viewing as barely covered as things are.

For example others that I hold also getting hammered today, Voda, 888 , Nex, different sectors but large debt.

Then compare to say m&s, yes also large debt but market views it as covered.

It's the only thing that makes sense to me as to why some got whacked and some didn't on another dreadful afternoon. Just my basic assessment of what's happening, and also explains the constant decline since the BOE started raising last year

Is hammering anything with what it perceives has high unmanageable debt.

Others faired ok today, m&s, lgen, c&c, aviva, all ended today up.

Imo this is UK specific and the market is targeting companies in different sectors.

Pokerchips

Not affecting the US market though.

Seems something prompted a sell off thus afternoon.

I Hope the board are actually taking nite of how the market is perceiving NEX.

Looking at some others that I hold, Voda, 888, large debt.

It's the only thing that makes any sense to me, the question is, are the markets right, should we be that concerned, or are companies with large debt being almost sectored accordingly and marked down as long as rates are still rising ?

It's clear which side of the Atlantic is controlling the share price

Paddyboy

I think investors deserve at the very least a TU inbetween the Oct update and FY in March, even just to say on track, etc.

Regarding M&S, well they're maintaining their profit forecast, announced reinstatement of dividends fir HY in November, reduced debt etc etc.

I thought the City would react similarly when NEX announced their 5p, it did initially for 1 day, and now look where we are.

You have to ask yourself why the market reacts positively to m&s and so negatively to NEX.

I'm sure it's nothing major but the markets are definitely not behind us yet.

In addition there's a poster on the other board that is coming accross like he has close links with the Co.

He also believes the cfo, ceo and IR are hopeless.

Tend to agree considering there was no update for 6 months last year from October to FY results.

Another seems to think that until they possibly do an asset sale ( UK or US), nothing is going to give.

From the recent TU

Over 80% of Group debt is at fixed interest rates. As previously communicated, we have already put in place a bridge-to-bond facility in respect of the £400m bond due November this year. We expect incremental annualised interest costs from this bond refinance to be in the region of £12m. As we manage the currency profile of our debt to match the currency in which EBITDA is generated, our covenant leverage is not impacted by currency volatility. We continue to see a clear path to debt reduction, which remains a priority, and we expect to be close to our target covenant leverage range of 1.5x to 2.0x Net Debt to EBITDA by Q1 2025.

Well I am expecting (as will the market) an interim dividend of a third of the previous years final dividend, whether that's a third of 5p or whatever the pro rata final part of 5p is, hopefully 1.67 interim announced at HY. They said that's what they intended when they announced the 5p.

As someone pointed out yesterday, shorts present, no BOD buys, and continuous decline in SP are usually a red flag.

But the same applied to NTWK last year, dropping to 1.60 and they continued to grow and show profit, then it recovered to 300, and is now in double bid situation.

Sometimes I think unsexy companies with smaller volume, often 3 figure algo trades, are easier to move sp wise for no apparent reason. Hopefully that is the case here.

Paddyboy

Although not as severe but this reminds me of PFC decline last Dec from 100 to 47p only on CEO leaving, and then the already forecast losses for last year.

It was last June they did the profit Warning about reduced margins, I just pray nothing has deteriorated or materialised since the TU in April.

I can't believe a company like NEX would reinstate the dividend as they reduced leverage, if there was any possibility there would be issues a few months later.

I'm now in so heavy here that every 1p drop hurts, far too many shares than I'm comfortable with.

But I did read a quote the other day, that if you feel too comfortable with your investment, it probably won't be that profitable!!!

Moaning

I must be a mug Barney, I keep meaning, keep buying, and NEX keeps falling!!

And for the umpteenth day, the only stock in my portfolio that is dropped by mns when the ftse starts rising.

Assidal don't know how long you've been invested here, paddyboy this isn't bedwetting its just sick to f-----g death of this drip drip drip, its starting to feel illogical and something under the bonnet that none of us can see.

Pokerchips

Greatly appreciated input , and however unsettling it is to see regular capital depreciation here, I always feel somewhat calmer after reading your posts.

Pokerchips

NEX specifically has underperformed my entire portfolio by a country mile, for some time now.

In your opinion, what is it about the this company that is preventing the city get behind it, in any way?

People need to travel, this method of travel surely has to be cost effective in a recession.

Is it the bond due in November?

Is it just easy prey for shorts?

Is it the headline figure from the results showed a loss due to Alsa impairment write off?

What are we all missing ?

Your posts are greatly appreciated and valued.

This isn't just a short attack, despite all 2 trades this morning, the market has been clearly sending the board a message for a year.

1st June 22 sp 268

25 may 23 sp 110

Shocking

Nothing to be positive about here, proving to be an awful investment, stooping to new lows every day. There is more going on here than just macro, its a third of what is was during 21 lockdown. Shocking

Well according to all the market commentators it's all about the divi with m&s, so what happened here?

Both ftse 250, both growing revenues, NEX already reinstated, m&s November, so why are we stuck down here , just to compare?