The future is copper4 Oct 2022 10:59
https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2022-09-29/Strong-hands-buy-at-bottoms-and-sell-at-tops.html
"It's not an exaggeration to say that copper is essential to decarbonization; nothing happens without it. "
"Although the copper price has retreated from a record-high $5.02 a pound, reached in March, the bull market for copper remains fundamentally intact — bolstering the case for investing in companies that mine the orange metal and exploration companies ("copper juniors") that explore for it."
"Again I have to ask, where are we gonna find the copper?
The obvious answer is, mine more, but that is easier said than done.
Bloomberg New Energy Finance (NEF) estimates that in 20 years, the world's copper miners must double the amount of global production — from the current 20 million tonnes annually to 40 million tonnes — just to match the demand for a 30% penetration rate of electric vehicles.
This is a tough ask considering some of the world's largest mines are seeing depleted copper reserves and lower ore grades, so it would be difficult for global production to even maintain a 20-million-tonne-per-year pace."
"Fitch expects growing deficits from 2023 onwards, peaking at 9 million tonnes by the end of the decade, as demand accelerates, "mainly driven by consumption related to the green transition."
The firm also sees steady improvement in prices over the next five years, with the metal returning to its March peaks above $10,000/t in 2027 and $11,500 in 2031 as "a long term structural deficit emerges."
"About 20% of Barrick Gold's production now comes from copper"
As Bristow has said ""Copper is probably the most strategic metal, and it's geologically related to gold," he said. "So if you want to become a world-leading gold company in the fullness of time, you are going to end up producing [copper]."
"The expected shortfall in copper supply and the inability of recycling to fill the gap, measured against robust demand for copper from both traditional and so-called "green" applications (mainly electric vehicles and renewable energy) bodes well for companies exploring for copper. After all, they are the owners of the world's next copper mines."