focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Simple scenarios
1. Company has its suspension lifted when this calamity is over - most likely outcome (consider all the other companies that were suspended due to sanctions - Evraz will be treated no differently)
2. Company remains suspended - continues to trade and builds in value. The top shareholders per website own 66% of the shares (those who have to declare holdings greater than 3%.
If they want to delist from London, buy out minorities, sell any major assets - it all requires a Special Resolution - >75% of shareholders - the largest shareholders don't have >75% so they cant do that
and after repaying the $200M very quickly they only need to refinance $300M
Appalling reporting - but then what can be expected from the UK media
Company has flagged up the need to refinance their debt for years - the bond mature in November 2022
What should be recognised was they entered into agreement to replace $200M of those bonds with a $200M loan from GPM repayable over 18 months in tranches of $66M - that suggests an impressive free cash flow from operations.
Gold mining is capital intensive and requires borrowing - which are better than asking the shareholders for cash or diluting holding by issuing more shares
Re Russian exports in Roubles
Russia trade surplus $110bn - Oil & Gas make up $142Bn of exports (Gold is $18.7Bn :-))
They are going to have to pay for their imports in something other than Roubles (probably) - which excluding Oil & Gas they are a net importer
Fun & Colourful info website with trade data
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/rus/
Anyway just did a quick check - the interest payment due of $760K amounts to 12.25kg of gold - just put it in a suitcase :-)
that would be 60% not 605!!
Russian Central Bank are paying @ a 20% discount - why would anyone sell to them at that rate? Anyway 605 of gold is bought for jewellery - CB purchases about 10-15%
I am sure GPM would be happy if they just stuck the gold in a warehouse!!
If they don't get their money today they will get it tomorrow and GPM wont sell it to Russian Central Bank at their "special" rate
If a company its nationalised then tall the assets are seized the nation cant say this one is ok that one isnt - POLY use depositary interests so "shareholders" have a a registered interest as recorded by the trustee who actually has the shares
The trust document is the basis that shareholders are allowed to vote and receive dividends - not actual shares
Re Azov Battalion Ros Atkins undertook an interesting review
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p0bx9slf/ros-atkins-on-ros-atkins-on
Clearly they have a bad history but the concludes it is a completely different unit from when it undertook it murderous activities after the Crimean takeover - anyway watch it and reach your own conclusion
or simply reducing logistics in the north so they can totally flatten Mariupol :-(
POLY.ME trades on MCX exchange (not MOEX - Moscow)- OTC in India so 13.45 UTC is 19:15 in India (+5.5 hrs)
I believe jeremyruttl's comment re foreigners related to restriction MOEX put on "certain international shares (10 in number" that were restricted on opening (I of course may have it totally wrong)
MOEX only open for Russian trades and no shorts allowed
Difference in price also suggests;
1. Russians think the company more than traders on LSE, and
2. They don't think they are going to have their shares nationalised, which has been suggested on this site
From https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/shareholder-centre/dividends/
Revised dividend policy (in 2020)
With a view to increasing transparency in dividend decision making process, adding predictability into capital allocation approach while aiming to maintain an above sector-average dividend yield, the Board has approved an amendment to the Company’s dividend policy, which replaces special dividend with a modified policy for final dividend payment. As a result, the revised dividend policy is as follows:
Minimum final dividend of 50% of Underlying Net Income for 2H (subject to absolute Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x).
In addition, the Board will now have discretion to increase the final dividend amount to a maximum annual payout of 100% of Free Cash Flow (provided that it is greater than 50% of Underlying Net Income). In making this decision, the Board will consider, among other factors, the macroeconomic outlook, debt position and future investment requirements of the Group.
Interim dividend will remain at 50% of Underlying Net Income for 1H (subject to absolute Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x).
With this amendment, starting from 2021, Polymetal will pay dividends twice a year on a semi-annual basis.
“Our updated divided policy responds to the market’s request for higher transparency”, said Maxim Nazimok, CFO of Polymetal. “We remain committed to providing superior sustainable dividends and returning cash flows to our shareholders”.
also there is a short'ers icon @ top of screen here - below share trades
link to MOEX sets out all constituents and trading summary for day - doesn't suggest 15 min delay
https://uk.investing.com/indices/mcx-components
Rouble to £ = 112.751
Up 29% on MOEX @ 10.1p
Agreed - they want to be "fair" to all shareholders wherever they are based, which does not sound unreasonable.
As they appear to use Euroclear it may well have to apply any sanctions with regard to Russian shareholders - first nail in the coffin of the proposed dividend
Re split of company - note in RNS they said they have put on hold/cancelled Pacific POX and are looking at putting it up in Kazakhstan (spent $20M in 2021 as part of $70M feasibility cost) - lot of sunshine in KZK so increase solar power capacity to power it
Clearest indication of securing independence of Kazak operations
But still twice the price it is in London :-)