focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Kyzyl Low Carbon concentrate sent to POX for processing and dore bars returned to Kazak for refining - so would be stamped in Kazak
See website - Our Assets/Kyzyl - nice little Block Flow Diagram and the video under Kyzyl Operations
Thoughts on the enormous postings on this platform, and returning to analysis of the company
1. Yes the conflict in Ukraine is affecting the valuation of the stock
2. The BOD decision to isolate the “Russian” assets is a positive step – the shift of POX3 (from 2021 accounts POX Pacific was $70M – p13 of the accounts – but also down the line significant power saving, perhaps could be made using solar power) to Kazakhstan has to be a big plus for the Company going forward – it suggests an idea to have 2 separate organisations – based on info from Company website all high carbon concentrates are sent to POX1 for processing and Dore bars are returned to Kazakhstan for processing
3. Splitting the company could come in many formats
a. They already have a “Russian” subsidiary that could be listed on MOEX – shareholders in Polymetal would acquire those shares that the company could “assist” in selling - see EVRAZ and the xxx demerger
b. They sell the Russian assets and have a future cash stream see
4. Based on information provided the cost of POX3 was $70M – this was likely to be funded by borrowings thus there will be a significant Capex, and borrowings, in Kazak which there hasn’t been for a number of years
5. Without being a metallurgist my understanding ( see Amursk POX hub | Polymetal (polymetalinternational.com)) is that the POX plant is an efficient way of extracting gold of refractory gold deposits
6. As any serious investor should do “Wait and see” – absurd opinions really have no value to the discussion -the BOD are already looking into it as they have told us
Addressing the geopolitical effects
How any of you can imagine how this war – and it is a war – will end is absurd
As a forum about Polymetal the discussion has been to the extreme; for those who think Russia’s action have any validity are so delusional it is sad; Russia have invaded another country – that’s the end end of it
Yes the “west” have been guilty of the same but at least they had a reason – WMD’s in Iraq (ask the Kurds) and Massacres in the Balkans - and yes there can be many other examples of “errors” made by “western” leaders – but as the old adage goes “two wrongs don’t make a right”. What were Russia reasons? “to de-nazify the country - led by a Jew!!!!
Nobody’s perfect but in this case Putin is a nutter, as was Hitler
He has stated that Ukraine is not a nation yet under control of the USSR there was the Ukrainian SSR – the man has the delusions of Hitler – if any “nazis” are involved in the present crisis it is that Putin is acting as Hitler did in Czechoslovakia in 1938
Putin’s objections to Ukraine membership of NATO is absurd – The Baltic states that border Russia are all member of NATO – since 2004 – for Russia it is simply a return the 19Th Century view of spheres of influence.
The result of the war is that Finland ad Sweden want to join NATO – a defensive alliance yet as set out in Clause 5 of the agreement “an attack on one is attack on all” – DE
Thoughts on the enormous postings on this platform, and returning to analysis of the company
1. Yes the conflict in Ukraine is affecting the valuation of the stock
2. The BOD decision to isolate the “Russian” assets is a positive step – the shift of POX3 (from 2021 accounts POX Pacific was $70M – p13 of the accounts – but also down the line significant power saving, perhaps could be made using solar power) to Kazakhstan has to be a big plus for the Company going forward – it suggests an idea to have 2 separate organisations – based on info from Company website all high carbon concentrates are sent to POX1 for processing and Dore bars are returned to Kazakhstan for processing
3. Splitting the company could come in many formats
a. They already have a “Russian” subsidiary that could be listed on MOEX – shareholders in Polymetal would acquire those shares that the company could “assist” in selling - see EVRAZ and the xxx demerger
b. They sell the Russian assets and have a future cash stream see
4. Based on information provided the cost of POX3 was $800M – this was likely to be funded by borrowings thus there will be a significant Capex, and borrowings, in Kazak which there hasn’t been for a number of years
5. Without being a metallurgist my understanding ( see Amursk POX hub | Polymetal (polymetalinternational.com)) is that the POX plant is an efficient way of extracting gold of refractory gold deposits
6. As any serious investor should do “Wait and see” – absurd opinions really have no value to the discussion -the BOD are already looking into it as they have told us
Addressing the geopolitical effects
How any of you can imagine how this war – and it is a war – will end is absurd
As a forum about Polymetal the discussion has been to the extreme; for those who think Russia’s action have any validity are so delusional it is sad; Russia have invaded another country – that’s the end end of it
Yes the “west” have been guilty of the same but at least they had a reason – WMD’s in Iraq (ask the Kurds) and Massacres in the Balkans - and yes there can be many other examples of “errors” made by “western” leaders – but as the old adage goes “two wrongs don’t make a right”. What were Russia reasons? “to de-nazify the country - led by a Jew!!!!
Nobody’s perfect but in this case Putin is a nutter, as was Hitler
He has stated that Ukraine is not a nation yet under control of the USSR there was the Ukrainian SSR – the man has the delusions of Hitler – if any “nazis” are involved in the present crisis it is that Putin is acting as Hitler did in Czechoslovakia in 1938
Putin’s objections to Ukraine membership of NATO is absurd – The Baltic states that border Russia are all member of NATO – since 2004 – for Russia it is simply a return the 19Th Century view of spheres of influence.
The result of the war is that Finland ad Sweden want to join NATO – a defensive alliance yet as set out in Clause 5 of the agreement “an attack on one is at
Sorry if already posted but what is email; for administrators please?
Hi damofari
I am an accountant, commercial not tax , and have been invested for 12 months
I looked at Malaysian tax changes and by my reading they have been deferred for 4 years - but I may be wrong
It must be said that the interim dividend was deferred due to changes in Kazakhstan tax rules not any changes in Ma la Malaysian rules which appear to be the possible restriction now.
A look at the principal shareholders on the website indicate why it might be an issue now
Us PI's in the UK,and elsewhere, are a significant minority in this case
The results for the year are excellent, the switch to KZT loans has eliminated a significant Forex loss, and clearly the company is operating in an efficient manner
Like you I don't like buybacks; let the investors decide where their funds are invested. One has to say that the proposed dividend reflects the stability of a well run company.
Eventually funds will have to be retained fo capital reinvestment but their success should enable such funds to be acquired at reasonable rates while continuing to give shareholders a return.
The company has , or at least by all the evidence, to have been well run but clearly the opportunities for the minority are subject to the status of the majority.
Let's wait and see - based on the dividend even with any Kazakhstan risk factors the share is significantly underrated and a great earner for the future
All my own opinion
@katenip - agreed
Actually we are a Jersey company headquartered in Cyprus listed on UK, Russian and Kazak stock exchanges with some assets in Russia
@commonstock - I also noted the reference to bond market prices of stock and checked them out - note on Danish and Swiss exchanges they were quoted at $0.23. If you look at the chart though you can see that volume of transactions over last six months are zero (each bond was sold with minimum subscription of $200,000) - I would not imagine that there aren't any retail bonds available. Last time bonds were redeemed was when POG got the $200M loan from GPM and redemption was undertaken by market tender operation (see RNS July 2021).
I agree with you it would be tremendous if the company could purchase their bonds back @ 12.21 on the $ (last time they paid $1.025) but perhaps it is indicative that the bond holders don't think its worth selling at that price - they are not that desperate (and yes we know about there position in an administration or other default position)
A new export licence may be needed because the old one has expired perhaps -despite that UMMC now provides an outlet for sales to comply with terms of loan
@wontongue
Agreed re UMMC - I did note in final paragraph observations re RCF & GPM and that clearly is an issue - it will just depend on the terms in the actual loan document; also questions as to efficiency of Russian legal system. We await the response of the company's legal people as referred to in 20 April RNS
Trustees of the Loan notes will be required to call a meeting of holders for them to decide what to do
Re UMMC
As UMMC acquired the rights to the loans previously made by GPM (by paying GPM presumably $201M) I am sure that POG are complying with those terms, which are now held by UMMC, by simply delivering the Gold (an unsanctioned body) and so all is good - not the interested party is UMMC Investments so they are getting a return on their investment - simples.
There would still remain the issue of the GPM RCF's though - and working capital - though as referred to before they did sell $168M of gold in Q1 and have cash of $72M for WC requirements
RNS is a formality - for those interested the terms of the 2024 Notes is on the POG website @ https://petropavlovskplc.com/investors/circulars-and-letters/ see 2019 - its only 247 pages long but interesting read about POX and other risks (it addresses Russian sanctions risk and Ukrainian issues back in 2019)
Conversion rights on Debt is $0.135 per share - with $337M of bonds outstanding that would be another 2.5Bn shares - but a reduction in debt of $337M - not many would convert at current price!!!!
Lets not forget despite commentary re not selling to GPM and hence GPM called in RC and assigned $201M to UMMC per Q1 2022 RNS
Gold sales $168
Increase in stock of Gold $25M (difference between Production and sales)
Reduction in Net Debt by $12M
Current Market value based on todays HK stock exchange price for IRC shares up for sale $57.8M
MMs are taking the p*ss
Poly currently have POX and are building POX2 - as noted by Redmoor these are for Refractory orebodies - currently Kyzyl sends their concentrate (up 100g gold per tone) to POX for processing and then returned as dore bars to Kazak for refining
Pacific POX was to increase capacity - as I see it by switching the Pacific POX to Kazak they are "protecting" Kazak operations from further issues
They needed another POX plant and just thought originally they should have it near the other operations IMO - now they are looking at a strategic decision to enable each country to operate independently if they must
(for info other POX plant in Eastern Russia is POG who buy in a lot of 3rd party concentrate to process to maximise capacity of their plant)
@Professor
Re your points
1) no opinion
2)If the debt as been assigned, presumably with the approval of POG (to be confirmed) then the same terms will apply - POG will sell their gold to UMMC and so comply with the terms - I also agree that this may simply a short term mechanism but...why did they announce they called the loan in and then say the debt was assigned. If it was a negotiated agreement they needn't have called the loan in...odd
3)I am not sure what waiver is needed here with the loans - POG simply comply with the terms by selling gold to UMMC - and yes it may be reassigned back - again why announce that the loans were called in?
4)POG, along with POLY, are the only ones with POX plants which is one of the methods of refining refractory gold - it is more efficient for them to process their gold that way (and other 3rd parties) - as the financial reports show they are significantly underutilising the facility so maybe UMMC need some of their refractory gold processed?
5) Agreed - and I am sure UMMC are going to get something out of it
9p on MOEX up 4%
Cut and paste from Wikipedia
UMMC has helped the city of Yekaterinburg. For example, at the end of 2013, UMMC worked on a deal to help secure the city's debt liabilities with the bank Gazprombank.[2]
Sounds familiar?
RNS appeared to be a double edged sword (or even many more)
1- Financing withdrawn - GPM demanding immediate repayments - bad news but are there any force majeure clauses in loan agreements?
2. Good news - GPM have transferred their rights so 1. is irrelevant - just a bit of bad press to shake the tree
3.What will UMMC do? If they are not a sanctioned body PG can fulfil their agreements under the credit agreement by selling gold to UMMC (is this the RNS showing POG have resolved their sale of gold issue?)
Guess what - speculation abounds - we will just have to wait and see
Re Strukov purchases
According to TR1 UGC acquired 22.37% of shares on 5 February 2020 + 5.97% voting possible via Convertible bonds
Price around 5 February 2020 was 18p
Convertible bonds were converted to shares @ $0.135 some time later
Since acquired further shares and %’s change due to employee bonus issues – now has 29.18%
Also consider that these munitions may be reaching the end of their shelf lives (I believe the propellant degrades/batteries fail etc) so what the heck use them up; buy some new ones - also valuable intel as to how effective they are so send them over to the Ukrainian Testing Grounds