Member Info for jezzahold

Some thoughts from previous wars;
1) Prussia invaded France in 1870 to facititae the formation of Germany - after a brief struggle the annexed Alsace/Lorraine - French revanchism was at an extremely high level and they jumped at the chance to get their territories back in 1914 - they did
2)Allies at Versailles in 1919 endeavoured to emasculate Germany so limited their army to 100,000 - luckily for Germany the Soviet Union was happy to supply training facilities; and the Germans just kept rotating the conscripts so they had a massive trained army for 1939
3) Germany invaded the Sudetenland in 1938 (I had mentioned before if you turn the current map of Ukraine 180 degrees as shown on BBC the red patches look very similar to the Sudetenland in1938) - prelude for a larger war in 1939
What will we see in the future as NATO becomes more wary of an actively aggressive Russia; the return of an iron curtain? NATO troops or at least an increase in pre-positioned resources? NATO expanding with Sweden and Finland? Ukrainian army limited to X'000 - and then sending them abroad for training?
Doesn't look good for the future

I am not sure the FT has ever fact checked anything - simply a twisted conclusion on an RNS
The RNS advised that there were still issues - particularly re interest payments but to any normal person those issues are resolvable - deposit your gold with a nominated holder rather than selling it; force majeure for bond holders interest
These different scenarios will play out in the months ahead

For those considering a split - this is from 2021 accounts (my calcs of split - subject to rounding)
Segment GE sold Koz.......TCC $/GE oz......AISC $/GE oz.........Reserves (Proved and Probable) Koz GE
Group...............1,640.................730 ................1,030.......................29,894
Kazak...................561.................643...................817.......................12,090
Russia...............1,079.................776................1,132.......................17,804
Doesn't like tables

For those considering a split - this is from 2021 accounts (my calcs of split - subject to rounding)
Segment GE sold 2021 Koz TCC $/GE oz AISC $/GE oz Reserves (Proved and Probable) Koz GE
Group 1,640 730 1,030 29,894
Kazak 561 643 817 12,090
Russia 1,079 776 1,132 17,804

I wonder whether there is a force majeure clause that prevents default for non payment of the bond's interest?

@latpulldown
Absolutely right but also not they need a lot of rubbles to simply operate in Russia - so no big deal
The downside as identified by the BOD is the inability to remit out of Russia
In my simple mind that could be done by inter-company loans - just don't pay for the processing a Amursk POX and the dore is returned to Kyzyl where it is refined and then it is sold on international market

Fb1989
analysis of debt and relevant currencies is clearly set out on the accounts - not 23 - as I keep pointing out
I suggest reading the RNS together with published information
As to seasonality of debt I will repost (with edits as my response was to somebody who wasn't concerned with reality
Increasing debt load from Production and data pack Net Debt tab
https://www.polymetalinternational.com/en/investors-and-media/reports-and-results/result-centre/
Dec 18 to June 19 - $178M
Dec 19 to June 20 - $211M
Dec 20 - June 21 - $476M
it as has been clearly stated by BOD in their RNS the increase is seasonal

The result, unfortunately for the Ukrainians and Russians, on the front line is irrelevant t the outcome

And then you can take the other view -VP controls the diatribe in Russia -he can spin the result how he chooses

Cold war Mark 2 will be coming - POLY separating their businesses is the best for the shareholders - IMO
Get what they can for the Russian assets - and as daft as it sounds concentrate on Kazak assets and overseas

Addendum to the last comment
I cannot believe Putin really expected as much resistance as apparently been put up by the Ukrainians - all power to them

Ref Military assignments
As a non expert on these things
Russian army have 2 military districts adjacent to Ukraine - West and South - these are the troops they are using together with others such as Black Sea Command
In addition they have substantial "Donbass" militia who have as much "nazi" indoctrination as that is supposed to exist within the "dreadful" Azov Battalion - which actually a part of Ukraine militia organisation - but why spoil a good propaganda opportunity
I appear to find conflicting stories abound on both sides
Russia have put there best troops forward but it appears their aim is simply destruction of everything in their way - a tactic not unfamiliar for US tactic which say "just blow the s*it out of everything - damn the consequences" - neither consider the effect on the recipients of their strategy as long as their own troops don't get hurt - unfortunately it would appear the Russians have fu*cked up in that message
Can anybody really understand Putin's War aims? - sorry Special operation
Attacking the Moskva was great - it though simply the Black Sea Flagship - guess what - there is a ne flagship
Ships and planes don't matter in a war - its how many boots they get on the ground - and the Russians have a lot

Anyone noticed that if you look at the map of Ukraine on the BBC website showing areas Russia controls and turn it round 180 degrees with a bit of imagination (just squint a bit) it is very similar to Czechoslovakia in 1938 and Sudetenland land grab - look what happened after that :-(

For info - Just thought I would check out a top up - I use First Direct - these are unavailable to buy as MM's are not selling (info from the help line as to reason) - at least to First Direct customers. They did say I could sell as many as I wanted to though :D

Agree the dividend should be 10% to account for risk - they have a policy of paying 50% of profits subject to EBIDA/Net debt (and other requirements)- so $1 a year should be a reasonable estimate of the dividend paid in the future

Re Crimean Bridge (which provides a land link to the Crimea from Russia without having to invade your neighbour and fellow slav) according to Wikipedia comments was actually considered by the Ukrainians as a means to restrict access to Mariupol (main port) as ships had trouble passing under it
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge
Definitely would put a damper on operations for the Russians to the west if taken out (and upset them)

Also re debts - last few loans were from Societe Generale $125M (2020) and Raiffeisenbank $200M and $200M revolving credit from UniCredit - these are all European Banks

Bana - just a point re the debts. Why cant they pay the debts because of sanctions? Neither Kazak nor Cyprus (the head office) is sanctioned.

Equanamity - it is a Duma decision - it has to pass the upper house and sign of by Putin (maybe easy)
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/1997/09/02/how-bill-becomes-law-in-russia-a301058
Next few years - what about after that? Do you totally alienate your trading partners (no and in the future) to score a few points today?
The vision that a Russian company can only be paid to Russian shareholder sounds very "League of Gentlemen" - but in the case of JSC Polymetal it HAS NO Russian shareholders - it is a 100% subsidiary of Polymetal plc (p202 of annual accounts)
I would imagine they sell their gold in US$ to China and India - not Renminbi or Rupees
Your scenario imagines that Russia want to return to the world pre 1989 which is extreme and exceptionally dark to say the least.

You are right we will just have to wait and see but wild speculations and always being a Jeremiad is often not the best for one's soul

sorry that should have said the 20% of shareholders who are Russian