Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Bablake, there aren’t 14billion shares in issue are there?
Callum hasn’t sold as he hasn’t told the mkt.
As you point out it’s quite negative on the cash flow to exercise options.

Agree. In almost all cases the phrase ‘strategic options’ means ‘sell’ in stockex speak.
Maybe in this case the term means what Quady thinks ie ‘production’. But I think that would be the first time in the history of stock exchange announcements….

Bozi, the reason why some of the blame has been at NMs door and not CGPs is that in the past couple of years CGP have been proved to be more accurate/truthful than has NM/Solgold. IMO.

Morning RK.
It certainly would make more sense to buy the lot at the earliest opportunity from a value perspective. But in this new era of friendship between the two companies, maybe that’s not what Solgold want and BHP may respect that. Going hostile on a junior is still not seen as something majors do. It’s also lower risk for BHP to go piecemeal though for them it will be small beer.
As to the barrick possibility, the biggest thing that supports that is that Bristow is a deal junkie IMO and he wouldn’t necessarily walk away if it got into a bidding war with BHP. However BHP have a head start with their stake and given they probably have equal costs of capital, it may come down to strategic fit. The other point to support BHP is that they have a team in the country and why do that if it’s not a favoured location. Time will tell.

As everyone is having a go with their crystal ball......
NC will withdraw and sell up to BHP at a suitable return. NC are governed by returns on equity but BHP have to be in the action. If Ecuador turns out to be one of the hottest mining jurisdictions, then BHP would be shot for not being there. NC are far more nimble and opportunistic. They have a monster in the making at Havieron, Cadia that has been just brilliant for them and some political issues to keep them busy in PNG. Ecuador, through FDN is a side show and takes no management time at the moment. They want five tier 1 mines and are well on track to get that when Red Chris is up and running. I guess if BHP wanted to make a strategic move into gold then they could bid for NC and it would be a neat Aussie solution, but big takeovers in the mining space are usually ego trips not money makers.
So for me the future of Solgold is in the hands of BHP and most people know that. As to when they move and at what price, who knows, but I suspect it won’t be till after the pfs and maybe dfs. They may pick off a deposit at a time or go for the lot.
BHP’s time horizon is so far out there it makes Quady look like some day trader. When they have de facto control of Solgold they won’t care whether they swallow them this year or after they are running Alpala and are in full production.
If the Chinese come in for anything, all it will do is make BHP pay a bit more. Nobody will get anything from Solgold unless BHP let them.
Solgold shareholders will do well, maybe very well, but that may depend on how BHP proceed and drilling results of course.
Just my thoughts. Maybe right, maybe not.
Good weekend all.

Davidmus, you are correct in your thinking.

Tallchap there is nothing and I mean NOTHING in your post that is correct. Please do a tiny bit of homework before posting.

Hi Sarah, in that case I apologise for suggesting that it’s scripted. I read in the annual report that ggp pay for access to proactive, so I assumed they have some input into the questions.
Sadly that makes it so much worse as there are probably twenty better questions from posters on here that could be asked. Hardly Paxman was it?
Feel free to contact me any time you want a selection of questions!

Agree Jet, but its scripted. She asks the questions that SD has asked her to ask. They are never tripped up by a difficult question.

For me TmT, it’s a fascinating topic which I discuss with myself most days.
Perceived wisdom is you should take less risk as you get older as you have less time to recover any losses. But it’s equally true to say you have more idea of what could be described as ‘excess money’ which might make you feel justifies a higher degree of risk. But health, age, tax liability, financial health of the extended family, toys that you want to buy (car, boat, second home, fine wines etc etc) all have to go into the equation.
For younger investors it could be building a nestegg, paying off debts or simply taking a holiday (some hope of that).
That’s why the PI investor is so much weaker than the insto. The latter never have these considerations. They do have others but they are more long term and less volatile.
I am sure most investors have many thoughts to plug into the equation. The more successful investors, imo, know what these thoughts are and can quantify them.

Good morning FJ. The most important part (imo) of the learned Tiggers post was that we dont have full buy in from the Instos as yet. We also have too many weaker PIs. This is probably normal for a company like GGP at this stage of its development. Time will move this forward and as we progress through the three letter acronyms we should see the Instos develop a spine and start investing. Obviously stronger metals prices will aid this even more. This may start to resolve itself from Wednesday night but it might take a few more weeks or months. But it wont be years imo.
So patience and a greater understanding of what we have will be needed and I think its fair to say that there will be much more good news this summer, some of it from what the septics call 'left field'. We are in a very fortunate position of having a very knowledgeable group of people on here who keep us informed, a head geologist who likes to leave clues and a CEO of our partner who cant keep a straight face!
I am totally relaxed.

Morning TmT. I thought your post shows the difference between how a trader values a position and a private investor.
As a former equity trader, we valued our positions after each days close and did a daily p&l. I still do this. So where do I ‘own’ all my investments? At last nights closing price. The p&l to that point becomes historic and really not relevant to today’s decisions.
Where I bought and sold them is only pertinent if I want to see how much I have lost or made historically on each share. Of course this method does assume that one can sell everything you own at the bid, which may not be possible for some larger positions.
It’s human nature not to like to sell at a loss, but if you think the price is going down from last nights close (as opposed to where you bought it) then that should be what you do.
We had something called the traders prayer, which went something like ‘oh Lord please let me get out of this position at break even and I promise I will never trade this share again!’. I suspect we all quietly say this from time to time on many investments, whether it be the daily, weekly, monthly or trade to date p&l.
Hopefully no one will need to be be saying any prayers about ggp. ATB.

Afternoon TmT. Did I say £8? That’s a bit on the low side:-). If I go with Goliath being 20X hav or the pog going to $15,000 (both of which I have heard learned experts make valid cases for), I think £8 will be a giveaway.
But I will be happy to see Mickeys 88p original tp from a year ago....

Mullard. Please explain why, or you just one of these people who never justify their random comments.

Rotherby, are you sure that option exercises can be embargoed? What effect does that have on the SP?

They took shares last year, so no change. They continue to see great value- and so do I.

Cornerstone 1 Solgold 0.

its sometimes a fine line RK, so I am glad you know where that line is. Thanks.

Just wanted to check you hadn’t made me an insider! Do you have any other non public, more ‘sophisticated’ information?

RK. Would you consider that privileged information?