Member Info for Jerryspaniel

Sojourner. It doesn’t have to be ‘rife’, for the article to have a point. Just the nature of the article is enough to get this convo going. Atm it’s a collective two fingers to NC which is what I hoped it would be. Any ceo is worried when their sp is low. Shaun and Sandeep must be concerned. If they aren’t then I think they are complacent.

Hi Dodge. I wasn’t trying to infer it will happen, but more what would you do if it did. I would like to think most of us would stay the course and not be seduced by a few quid.
I really don’t think it will engender a bidding war for ggp, but might make NC more vulnerable which might put them off.

So I think all shareholders need to think long and hard what an approach at 28p, 35p, 50p would mean to them. Do you take the money or do you want to see what is inside the box (very old reference for some). Is this a trade for £10,000 or is it something that you will NEVER repeat and could make your extended family forever grateful long after you have gone? Sadly if you have less than a million shares in GGP you arent going to have much of a voice., despite what it could mean for you. Just the way the maths work. But lets say you have over 10m shares, maybe 5m, then I think Shaun might want to know your thoughts.
For me I am going to let him know that I dont want a deal at any price this year or next. Not until we know what really is in greater Havieron. There is no point in saying any number higher than 50p cos there is no way NC will be offering that this year. This will give Shaun some good information and might just strengthen his position if Sandeep puts the call in.
One other thing that could happen of course is that someone beats Sandeep to it and bids for NC. That would be fun as Sandeep would have to go from the ultra cautious, conservative CEO to have to lift his skirt and show the world what he has been hiding from us in those drilling reports and internal growth projections.
Finally if you think what I have said is total tosh, then what was Proactive doing flying that kite about going the whole hog and buying GGP? Was it just some MF type nonsense?
IMO it was at NCs request to see what gives.
Here ends my 'magnificent octopus'. Baldrick.

Good afternoon everyone.
This could be my most important post since I joined LSE.
I am grateful to Hydrogen for his approx 8.30 post and a few others since who have been expounding on the NC takeover theory.
In the past few months a lot of the trading hasnt made a lot of sense to me and I have regularly been pushing back on my good friend Hydrogens conspiracy theories in private. I just thought we had a classic case of more sellers than buyers.
The proactive post of approx yesterday has cleared the air for me. In the words of that odious Australian 'Can you see what it is yet', well no I couldnt. Maybe I still cant but something does add up and make me very very concerned.
So here goes. NC, knowing that there sp is way undervalued (they have said so in virtually every presentation this year) are worried of an approach. This was alluded to in an excellent earlier post today. The money that any miner of Iron ore, uranium, gold or copper has been making this pat 18months has been astronomical. Major miners arent very good when they have lots of cash. Many have been giving wads back to shareholders, but they have done that, so what next. Well NC is cheap, has a fantastic pipeline for those in the know, in the industry. Maybe a somewhat nationalist Aussie govt would not allow a Barrick or a Newmont to buy the country's biggest gold miner. But an Aussie solution with BHP, Rio, Reinhart or Fortescue would be 'welcomed'. Maybe Rios are still in the doghouse.
So, NC and their advisors know they are at risk, so they need a solution to make themselves bigger and less attractive. One is the 'shock and ore' (stolen from Nick Mather), of announcing three PFSs on one day. The other is to acquire GGP before the next MRE is announced. Maybe they couldnt do this before the PFS cos of privileged information, but if they havent started work on the Dec MRE, then maybe thats ok. The lesser proposal would be to buy the 5%. Now, of course there is the unwritten code that majors dont go hostile on juniors. But what if you are desperate?
So NCs advisors instigate a programme to get the GGP sp lower. This entails day trading, spreading false gossip through the chat rooms and obviously they are helped by the sector being horrible and Speedys good friends at JPM doing their stuff on the gold price.
I think it might be tough for SD to negotiate his way out of giving up the 5%, but he has a chance of defending the takeover.
If this approach happens NC will use the line about x premium over the 30 day vwap. 40% is a 'normal' bid premium which might mean 28p. if you are like me and other lths you will know that this is daylight robbery. Shaun might be able to defend 28p, but can he defend 35p without a lot of help? Thats my worry.
I have no idea what the chances are of all this playing out, but if its a significant concern then it doesnt matter that its a possibility and not a probability. Cont'd.

Five Tier 1s? Wow the sp might get to 44p........ You gotta laugh or you would cry with this lot.
If you did have five tier1s with good PFSs it really should be north of £2. Maybe one day it will just pop and we will be in a different price range. Hope I am still here to see it.

Morning CD. Whats the betting that if Solgold said PFS on Monday, they would still miss the deadline? I am afraid you just cant trust anything that they say.
My betting is they will miss the 2021 deadline too. They do have form. Lots of it.
But the deposit hasnt gone anywhere so its just a matter of waiting and waiting and agree with you on the last para, which is why I am still here.

Well that was a fun day. My take is that the news of the PFS on Tuesday scared off the sellers, day traders, shorters and mms from selling and so we had no sellers at all. The mms had to keep marking the price up to attract a few to sell who had bought at lower levels. Plus we had a few who were looking for the turn to start buying/averaging down. Positions were churned to create the large volume.
It clearly demonstrated (as if we didnt know) that this last month or three was an artificial price, a wrong price and just needed a catalyst. MMs dont care whether the job from the long or short side, they just follow the momentum, which hopefully has turned. If we can get some help from the gold price or the drill bit then we can continue back to some kind of normal price with a change in momentum.
Big day for me, so I celebrated with two bacon and brown sauce sarnies and a pint of lager. I know how to celebrate!
Congratulations to all who stayed the course. There will be other dark days I am sure but this price action underlines to me that we are on the right side.

Morning Stebol. Shaun has gone to quite some length to explain and advise investors not to expect too much more than the last Dec MRE in the PFS, so I would stick with 4.2m au eq. However that wont stop the next MRE in Dec being much higher and subsequent MREs being higher still. Of course other PFSs or hopefully straight to a BFS in June 2022 will follow on behind using some of the updated MRE data. So its an upward curve and just follows NCs preferred path of being conservative and under promising and over delivering.
I am now expecting Hav to be at least 45m AuEq, but I just dont know when that will be.

TT, its not sensitive as we dont know the contents of the PFS, but it could be something that is worth a tweet, which I think is Dannika's job now.

Evening all. I don’t know joebass at all but he is spot on with his thoughts on my good mate hydrogen. So he must know his stuff to know that hydrogen is well connected, cos he really is.
A few times I wish hydro would say a bit less cos he really does give this board some nuggets. Maybe many don’t realise the quality of his posts but if only you knew…. One day even his knockers will thank him.

Nice job DBW. Bit of an underpass than a tower atm unfortunately….

Wouldnt it be great if the Fair Value calculation took three months to do by an expert. Then it would always be superseded by events and so would always be out of date.

SB. I get your point that NC have the option at FMV, but that doesn’t mean that ggp can’t dispute what ‘fair’ is. FMV should not only calculate as you say but will have to offer something for the upside potential, otherwise it will be demonstrably ‘unfair’. IMO this is where the devil is in the detail. I am sure that neither party would want a public spat over this let alone a lawsuit, and NC will need to demonstrate to other juniors that they act properly. So it’s a bit more complex than you say.
I have a capital mkts background so I say this with respect.

LA. I am going for this Wednesday or the following Wednesday evening our time.
But the big one is the MRE in early December when I am expecting at least double and hopefully over 10m ozs au eq.

I think he is on the M25….

Quady, you complain about others rudeness, but you are one of the rudest around. One really strange person....

RK, did you expect them to say that we have a moderate candid that might be able to do the easier parts of the job? All successful applicants are by their nature 'top candidates'. I expect they would say even the reserves are too.

Mark. Totally agree. Only a nasty move by NC can stop us and nothing sandeep has said and done would suggest he wants to alienate all independents and their shareholders by going down that route. 40p before 12p IMO.

Mark, my worry would be that if there were any mergers in the region NC would use the opportunity to mop up all the independent guys in the Patterson.
This, at this stage, may not be to our advantage, given all the rumours I am hearing about size, grades, minerals, regional plays etc etc. Who wants 30p, when that will be a fraction of the prize IMO?

Morning mushy. I salute your way with words! Look forward to sharing a bottle of Chateau Speedy with you and all good people on the 13th.
Lots to discuss….