Member Info for Jerryspaniel

FTJNY, Oh I dont think Quady is that bad......Its just that he doesnt realise the order of the alphabet.

Canary, while you are right that NC havent accepted the MRE2, they did put out a statement acknowledging the MRE2. If they thought it miles out they would have had to say something, otherwise it could be construed as misleading. They knew it was coming for three weeks before it arrived.
Also SD said it was pretty conservative and something they would find relatively easy to defend. They could have been at least 25% more aggressive.

No they wont cover their positions with options! Firstly there are no listed options and secondly if they had to get an OTC option quote the seller would have to delta hedge and that would mean buying shares. So a non starter.

Joe I have covered that extensively below.

Afternoon SB. I am pretty sure that SD did say that its possible that the conservatism that seems to strangle (my words) NC at times could lead to the board saying no thanks, but SD thought it unlikely. It might come down to the non execs at NC being overly cautious and wanting to preserve as much cash as possible, which is daft when you consider how much cash should be flowing from NCs operations. Any exec surely would take the 5% especially when you consider the valuation method.
Incidentally SD said it should have been a clause where one party came up with a price and the other had to buy or sell 5% at that level. Now that would have been fun.
So at a guess I would say there is a 10% chance of NC refusing. SD may put it a bit higher, but not by much.

I guess you must be talking to Paddy and I, MrEMC2, as we were the other two, barring Bamps' mate who doesnt post sadly. SD said what all CEOs say when asked about the sp. He focuses on managing the business and doesnt worry about the day to day sp, which is just as well as otherwise he would be on here! Actually he says he never reads the stuff on chat rooms which is good. I think he does get a flavour from people like Dannika though which is plenty.
The old saying that if you are obsessed by the sp and are constantly watching the minute moves, you are probably too big in the stock probably rings true here.
I am off to do something to prove that I dont own too many shares........

No idea MFU. I dont think that the 20% changes anything. Better to ignore it. SDs comment that most negotiations are finalised on the steps of the court house suggest to me that there will be some brinkmanship but it wont go that far. SD wants to avoid the win/lose, so it has to be negotiated. We dont know the numbers, nor the difference. Both parties need to justify their numbers. I do think that NC were doubtful GGP could produce an MRE and therefore probably a justifiable number for the 5% too. So NC are learning - slowly - that GGP isnt the old GGP. Its a proper jv partner. That is really good for us.

MFU, SD explained it as that as something that came up in general discussions. SB was trying to be constructive. I think that SD appreciated the gesture, but I dont think it changes anything as they are further apart than 20%.
My take is that a deal will be reached before we go to arbitration but it wont be by instigating the 20% clause.
I think you are looking for an angle that isnt there.

ASX listing is a possibility. Moving off AIM onto the main market with a premium listing (which allows inclusion into indices like FTSE250) isnt possible atm as companies need to demonstrate that they control their main asset. With 25% of Hav, that would be a stretch. At this point he did think that buying something would solve that problem, so I think he might be looking for an asset.
If I think of anything else I will post....

I think everyone who attended had a great time and a few of us then went to The Cheshire Cheese afterwards which was fun.
So the following should be taken as part fact and part my take on things and for those who heard differently, please feel free to add you comments too.
The reason we are down to 6 rigs is partly seasonal and partly to give the crews a break. Covid had meant that many hadnt really had any extended periods at home with families etc. NC will get back to 8/9 rigs soon but that is the limit of what NC feel they can safely manage.
I didnt get the chance to ask about the Scally delays, but SD did spend some time wondering aloud whether Scally might one day be folded into the Hav JV, which will allow some improvement in the general terms.
Its pretty clear that SD has a very good working relationship with SB. They arent mates and the cultures are clearly very very different as you would expect. Surprising just how weird and conservative NC are. SD is amazed that NC didnt try and buy GGP for about 2p after Had5. It wouldnt have cost a lot more than the farmin expenditure....Especially as Telfer could have been bought for $1 by anyone who could also afford the $500m restitution liability, that sits with NC.
There is no residual CA with Newmont over EG. Newmont walked because HQ overruled the local management who wanted to continue. The first nation approvals seem to be taking longer than expected and the first drilling for EG seems to be slipping nearer to next year than end of this year. But the good news is that the weather at EG should enable the various projects that GGP have to mean all year round drilling. It could be said to be 4 months at each of Scally, Juri and EG. Drilling will be one or two holes, process, analyse, recalibrate, drill etc. Not ten drills and lets get lucky.
Not sure that SD is so naive to think that the MRE delay and the 5% werent related. They were.
Yesterday was a day for PIs, the next three are for instos/banks. Some big guys like Fidelity and Blackrock have bought in but meaningless amounts so far.
SD is not at all bothered by the JPM short. He comes from the Rick Rule school (and mine too) that shorts are no big deal, as they will eventually be buyers. He thinks the short is directly linked to the 5% negotiations, which I am not sure is right. But if it is it should be closed after the 5% is done.
The progress of the decline has been a worry to me, but he explained it well as Bamps has previously outlined.
I didnt get to answer some of the other questions as there were some people who thought I had asked too many already!
There was a very clear message from SD. He is dealing with the legacy issues most of which he wouldnt have done. Once those are dealt with he will be running a proper, professional team. He is hoping to add some eye wateringly senior people to the board. Bit more.....

I think Bamps is doing a good job of passing over some of the salient points. I will post my full views tomorrow but nothing price sensitive or earth shattering.
Firstly the pacific trends second clause has always been there as Starbright surmised this morning. Secondly the move to 20% difference on the 5% negotiations was at SB suggestion. This should be seen as NC being constructive but absolutely not a clue that the parties are close. They aren’t. The 5% number will be a lot smaller than most hope.
The big takeaway for me and other lths should be that under GH there was no infrastructure within ggp. The company was designed to be sold. Lean, somewhat clueless, adding no value and cheap to run.
It now has a professional structure, will have a VERY professional board, getting a great management team and is here for the long term.
So many of the deals that SD inherited including the farmout, the 5%, the juri jv, the lack of in house skills, need to be viewed through that lens. Once these old deals have been worked through SD will be unencumberred and will continue to build a proper company with a long term future.
For the get rich quick folk I am sorry but you maybe on the wrong horse. This is a get very rich steadily with lower risks and an excellent leader. You choose but I can’t think of a better person to lead us for next five years.

RK the second car is substantially nicer than the first which looks like it should be owned by the ant hill mob…

Good news. The Sheriff is leaving Dodge….

Pretty sure it was PIs hydro. Not sure how your friends at JPM would have made money from buying tens of millions of shares in the 30s. Your obsession with JPM takes you into some daft and illogical thoughts processes unfortunately.

I am equally pretty sure they didn’t.

Ipad, are you expecting some phenomenal news from Scally on Monday, Shaun swimming in Taitty and Bamps, you and me doing the conga around the buffet tables?

Well it was for Solgold actually. But its just a guess based on current prices, bid premia etc.
TBH whatever it is, when Alfalfa is sold I will be exiting this company. Too much time for too little reward I am afraid. Will put it into gold Brits.

FWIW, and probably not much, if we get a bid I think the initial bid will be about 50p with an agreed price of about 75p. Over a pound is not in my expectations.

Ginger, I have explained this before. Its v expensive to move on to the main market. When we have production and therefore income, it will happen. Some instos are prevented from investing on AIM but many are not. I dont think any of us want to see a share placing just so that we can afford the millions it costs to move off AIM.

Morning Jungle. Thats my understanding of the CGT situation. In Australia its different as tax is payable on the exercise as an imputed value is calculated. Maybe thats where there is confusion.
And for the record it was Gemma who exercised the options (not bought them!) and GH has NO shares and NO options. He has NOTHING to do with GGP at all, whatsoever.