RE: Sky News reports - LFT Pregnancy like Antigen test by SureScreen23 Sep 2020 15:36
The delays are of course frustrating for people but predominantly for two reasons:
- They jumped in on COVid stocks at the start of the hype and either got spiked here at £2.40 and are sat on a loss or inexperienced PI's overexposed themselves expecting a 1000000% return in 2 weeks becoming overnight millionaires.
- They hold AS at gunpoint for his overenthusiasm at the beginning with the "in a few weeks" comments.
Yes there have been delays, which will impact the timelines of AVCT achieving it's "potential value" which we think could be significant. However, some points to note:
- Long term holders who were in here before the Covid play knew this was a buy and hold investment.
- The placing has put £40m in the bank that will allow the therapeutics business to scale up and projects move on that would otherwise have been shelved (take confidence from the pharmas extending their existing agreements)
- Nobody has come up with a self administered, saliva based LFT ahead of us and only a few are even attempting. Shows this is difficult and we took that hard route rather than just a soon to be partially obsolete antibody test. To that end, I personally anticipated delays.
- Govts are moving the goalposts for approvals in the LFT space. Shows there is focus here and they need them to be "top class". Will add time but cuts out "knock off" competition so will be worth waiting for.
- BAMS and ELISA rhetoric suggests the Affimer piece (the part fully in AVCTs control) works and works well!
- Accepted into CONDOR shows it has to have some promise.
- The names we have involved in producing/manufacturing the LFT are some of the best in business. Why would they get involved if this is a dead duck? Sadly, as this process is not fully in AVCT's control, the delays are frustrating but we have to trust these guys will deliver.
So all in all, I think the frustration is more from people who wanted a quick buck and given the slow progress for all involved in the self administered antigen LFT space (of which there are very few), I am not worried. The market is huge and no way one company will fill demand, revenues will come as COvid isn't going anywhere, albeit there may be some "opportunity cost" if you can call it that.
Don't forget the company were never a Covid testing company, there were no blueprints for this. I think they have done a great job of jumping on an opportunity so will forgive the slightly overenthusiastic timelines at the start. But of course, that depends on your reason for investing here in the first place.
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