The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Sharcus
Is Citadel suggesting they are short millions of shares in the US listing of 4D (ie LBPS) ?
If so, let's for the moment suggest that number is 4 million shares. That would be worth about about $19mn which is 17% of the market cap. There is no way in Christendom that a) they can borrow that many shares b) it hasn't been reported as a short in the US where the reporting thresholds are lower than the UK and c) that a quant fund would short shares that would take them a minimum of 15 days to buy back based on ADV. Quant funds I can assure you don't take positions that can't be bought back quickly. The risk is just too high...especially in bio tech.
I look forward to hearing more as I can call one of a few people at Citadel and find out. And a well-worded email to Ken Griffin would certainly get his attention. He would not want this in the New York Times.
Red Cloud Securities (yeah, me neither) have just put out a piece of research with a price target of 45p.
Don't beat me up....I also don't place a lot of value on these pieces of research....but it is a pretty thorough piece.
100% but do I ever do that ? No ! I'll do it one day. But am a long termer in this one so have bought a few more this morning.
I don't think the loan is bad. Better than equity dilution. The rate at 7.5% isn't bad and I would be happy if they get the kicker at 1.8p or higher. Lenders don't make loans not expecting to get it back. ...they would have done more DD than one can imagine.
RiskReepFO
I would wait for 2p if I were you
Good analysis Skeletor.....thank you
Worse Porky...1 in 2 eventually suffer from cancer
All things being equal the US nominal price should be very close to 10.5x the UK price i.e. 50p should equal $5.25 or 525 cents
Masterblast
In as much as the rampers have got themselves a bit over-excited, the doubters have got a bit under-excited too. I refer you to your remarks in early Jan...
"This share is heading towards 15p and lower, you will see either a consolidated SP or takeover where you will receive a fraction of you SP worth."
It's a day trading stock for now. Nothing wrong with day traders (or crumb gatherers as I like to call them)....each has their own role to play. It's up to Duncan to switch this stock into the hands of IIs or LTHs to stop what is frankly a mess at the moment. He has started that process with the Wednesday RNS and I expect we will see this stock do well as real investors soak up the impact of this amazing news.
For now, it's a case of waiting for the crumb gatherers to move on.
Absolutely Sounds Risky...although difficult to implement, there should be regulation relating to this sector on shorting. Shorters have no moral compass and they should be given one....especially when matters as serious as cancer are in play.
That said, am not convinced much shorting at play here yesterday....it's an incredibly risky strategy given the results.
Porky
I agree. I’m starting to realise the significance of this for the medical profession. I suggest the feedback we get from the medical profession over the next few weeks will indicate just how significant these trial results are for cancer sufferers. I’m excited about this ‘discovery’ on all levels.
dear oh dear
Scientists make terrible presenters and Duncan is no better
Of course it's up today....I had to sell a few yesterday out of necessity. I shall let you all know next time so you can guarantee the stock goes up the very next day.
Porschefund
I have been thinking the same. I have been considering how and when that might happen as the West implements their desire to rely less on Russia and China.
He didn't have a choice...he had massive redemptions in his fund
Mumbo. If that is your view, are you going to sell and buy lower ?
Telegraph article basically say that microbiome research is indicating there might well be a link to cancer if the gut isn't healthy. Early stage positive results from a trial conducted by the National Cancer Institute in the US.
Lots of positive stuff however, the article says that it will be a long journey and might take 10 years of work.
However, I thnk the investment opportunity will be much earlier than 10 years...and hopefully now...with 4D
Further info on the short side...
The implied break-even price for all shorts is 48 pence. What does that mean ? We might not see a big squeeze until price is in low 40s.
However, the domino effect can often happen i.e. some shorts close early forcing the price up to the point where all shorts are forced to close.