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Crusty
Am going to sit on the fence. Am expecting an RNS or two and hoping they have some substance.
CrustyPete
I think we need news that is material in that it either has a decent partner involved or has some numbers in it rather than words. I'm hoping that will be seen in January.
IanH1
It depends...sellers need buyers so low volume generally not a good environment for shorters.
I posted on 6th Dec with some data on shares on loan data. Here is an update based on yesterday's data..
Quantity of shares on loan has increased by 1.1mn to 8.63 million. Cost to borrow has increased from 13% to 15%.
Days to Cover broadly similar at 3.4 as a result of higher volumes
Interestingly there were previously 7 borrowers (ie prime brokers) in the stock and now there are really only 2 majors indicating that borrow is centred around a few major short sellers.
Public declared short are only 900k shares versus 8.63mn shares on loan showing that public info is largely worthless.
Utilisation is 55% meaning that of all the shares available in the market 55% are borrowed. For Small Caps, lenders won't lend anything close to 100% of their available pool so if there is a squeeze on the ability to borrow this could force HFs to cover short but I don't think we are there yet.
My view ? HFs clearly think there is more to go on the downside. The risk of a short squeeze on news or significant buys is growing rapidly. They have to buy back at some stage.
This is a dangerous short position in my view with 3.4 Days to Cover and news pending. There is a danger that once one HF has had enough and starts to buy back, others will be forced to do the same.
I think it’s more than possible that Oliveira is reducing holding for tax reasons. A few years ago now I held more than 10% of a company in the US and was forced to sell it as it meant I would become a ‘partner’ and would therefore have to file a U.S. tax return for a number of years.
Robert
Do you not think this stock has some value as a shell at least ?
Ok it has a bit of net debt but some small revs too.
Come on 4D. We get to low 70s and we are in short covering territory. Long live the LTHs
I'm trying to manage my own expectations on this one. I am confident the debt will be refinanced successfully but the key for me will be if there is any equity dilution, how much and at what price. I am hoping the long term holders don't get punished (I have only been holding for about 18 months). Let's see if AK does the right thing by his loyal PI shareholders who have stuck by him when a lot of IIs didn't.
The company can’t be taken over without a formal offer and a majority vote. Board unlikely to recommend to shareholders to accept a bid anywhere near current price.
Alas not Sunyca but I did get a laugh out of your post...juvenile I know but still funny
I will update this board on change in shares on loan in a week and we might be able to work out if shorts being bought back and sold into by Oliveira
These are from IHS Market today which is the leading provider on data on Shares on Loan
Cost to borrow 15% which is indicates demand too borrow is high
Utilisation 51% meaning that half of all securities available to borrow are being borrowed
% shares outstanding on loan is 4.18% meaning that 4.18% of hares issued are being borrowed....this is down from 5% a week ago
Days to Cover is just over 4 meaning that it would take 4 days volume for all shorts to be covered. That is a lot and indicates a short squeeze will happen on positive news
Predicted break even price of 72.73 meaning that on average shorts will start losing money at that price
Lastly, I can't post graphs here but they all indicate that about 20% of shorts covered over last few days
LBPS was up another 15% in post market trading. I don’t know on what volume that was so difficult to know if relevant.
I've got a feeling that news is not coming until January and through their own corporate access some HFs know there is a delay in news and are preying on negative PI sentiment. It makes sense because why would you go short if you could get absolutely carried out on a good RNS. I don't think anyone knows the content of the next RNS but just that it is not imminent. I may well be wrong and it could arrive any time soon.
For that reason, my strategy is to accumulate and average down on the dips. I have the patience to do it...just !!
I really hope so. Is this the calm before the storm...a good storm if there is such a thing ?
It's so difficult to judge but my hunch says that it is within 10 days. Although hunches are not one of my better investment strategies !
Cautionyourblast
Ditto re top posters in the form of Zen, Agadem and IZ. And others. This is undoubtedly one of the best boards on LSE.
Sadly, it will soon become full of those that you describe or maybe not…here’s hoping.
I notice a log of articles in the likes of The Economist pointing out that natural gas is the best of the fossil fuels in terms of carbon footprint. And further that we will have to rely on it for at least two decades more. Whilst we would all wish for a carbon neutral world that is not yet a reality. I therefore believe natural gas will be considered an investment opportunity again.