Member Info for jazz_01

stagecoach up 8% while Nex is down 1%, very strange pricing action going on when NEX is in a far better position.

Its clear that even when the FTSE is rising, this thing isnt moving so its fallen completely under the radar now.

It makes me think unfortunetly that this just is going to move now till official news comes out on potential contract wins, many small suppliers have gone bust, someone like NEX can capitalise on this, need CEO news (this should push the share price up 5-10% alone, further strengthened by a tranch of director buys.

We need to see passenger numbers move up also, and wait for US and UK Schools to open, spain virus cases need to get back under control...even though the world is testing significantly more as can be seen from the % death rates compared to the number of total cases.

Overall, this moved from 65p to 270p in short order, its fallen back to 130s, this will bounce back strong soon but just not yet i think.

Still holding

Moving up

If i had spare cash id be topping up in this - due a hard bounce up

Im suprised this hasnt been snapped up on the cheap by a private equity firm....i tend to have a habbit of getting into shares that then get acquired....maybe the risk is too high to buy a transport operator in this climate...but its also at pretty much its cheapest given the fact theres no profit guidance, no CEO, 2nd wave pandemic risk (materialising by the day unfortunetely).

Also strange considering there was such a big appetite for a placing which was absorbed at circa 230p, yet none of those who did the placing have topped up their positions?

Mixed feelings currently, still holding!

Minimal trading volumes yet share price is being brought down again.....

Need some positive news like a contract win, acquisitions of smaller competitor, CEO update, anything to get this moving in the upward direction.

My worry is this has lagged behind major indexes by quite a margin, though its not NEX specific as other transport companies have fallen in the 40-55% range since the post coronavirus highs they hit few months ago.

Im just very suprised the share prices for transport are as low as they are though NEX should of had the smallest fall as its much more diversified. I guess all people will look at is US school, Spanish coach Alsa services and West midlands contract UK as the 3 major elements that will drive this upwards.

Currently US Schools are vary hit and miss and there's nervousness around what will actually happen, if everything opens as normal, you will see this drift upwards in short order.

Spain is probably the least bullish out the 3, they are seeing rising cases so no one is going to want to go on long haul coach travel around the country, although you can argue no one will want to fly therefore increase intra city travel in Spain, just a guessing game without tangible numbers though.

UK is probably the most bullish in my opinion, should return to decent levels in short order as we are much better equipt then where we were at the start of the crisis, its not so much the number of cases that would be a concern or even the vaccine...just whether its the new normal that theres less transport usage going forward.

Is there any website i can use to see positions by insitutions for shares in NEX? in the same way you can see shorts, i cant seem to find a good one...Curious to know who took up the placing and whether they will top up their positions or not.

No idea - sentiment is poor.

No idea why this has fallen so much since it was at 280p maybe 2 months ago.

2nd wave lockdown hasnt materialised, cases havent spiked. Public transport is slowly getting back to normal.

Something else is going on....

Lol - I admit, i had these from 70p when it went up to 280p, however there was NO indiciation at the time to need to sell hence I didnt.

Did i think these would be in the 130s now? not a chance but thats the way the world goes. What I do know is there is no major 2nd lockdown coming as there is no appetite from any country to do so.

The DOW has hit record highs, FTSE has lagged 20% or so behind the DOW when I personally feel Coronavirus is under much better control here now.

Wait till schools open in the US, spain normalises and people slowly start returning to work even if it is just 1 or 2 days a week. This will be back up in no time.

If people brought this and are panicking due to it swinging 50p up or down, its the wrong share and your in the wrong times to be buying.

Exact same was happening when this was trying to hit 200p in the 190s and people were saying it cant break 200p etc, then it hit 220p, all the way to 284?

Its now half of that simply due to the risk of 2nd wave and a prolonged recovery. If you believe they will recover faster then what the market believes, or have fallen harder then they should of, you should be buying. Simple.

I hold 6,600 of these at 135p a share average.

Agree 100% Worthashot.

Being in the west midlands you realise just how dominant NEX are, public transport is staying and will grow for years to come. Pandemic or no pandemic, the roads are too congested to not have bus and coach services running.

Im aware UK is only a small portion of the business, but thats an interesting factor as this has been dragged down due to US fears from schools, continued pandemics etc. Do we really think the biggest economy on earth there has ever been, in the most capitalistic times, they will prolong the pandemic and not find a cure or ways around this?

Everything will be back to maybe 80% of volumes in 6 months time, then slowly ABOVE pre pandemic levels in my opinion.

Decent finish to the day, long way to go...

Oversold is an understatement

I dont see how the RNS gave any additional news we didnt already know that was negative to result in a drop...rather there was nothing so positive it justified people to then sit in this share for months until another update.

Those saying the drop was justified, its the market which dictates the price so the market is always right however this is the same market that allowed this share to go from 400p to 65p and back to 270p....did NEX go from a 65p to a 270p company and grow 300%+ over that time period on a factual none speculative basis? the answer is no.

So to guess the share price even on a monthly basis you will be wasting your time, there are way to many factors at play that can swing this share 15% in a single day.

Ive been constantly topping up in NEX over the last few months, I work in this industry and NEX is in a strong position to dominate the sector once the coronavirus is over, but that is the issue, we are still in a pandemic.

If people arent flying abroad to go on holiday, surely UK intra city travel is in a good place to boom? surely with a recession on the hands people will be giving up their cars to travel on public transport? far more costly to keep trains going then buses, and if you have low service buses, you can easily take them off the routes and into busier areas.

I still think this will get brought out by a private firm before it ever hits 250p again , ive had shares in companies of this size previously and they always tend to get brought out in these types of scenarios but anything can happen and is pure speculation.

Good luck all.

One thing to add is people wont simply stop using buses and coaches, but probably increase due to them no longer justifying the need for cars as there is much less emphasis on the need to have a vehicle permanetly.

Yes the volumes will never be the same again, but there is a real shift from government to get people using public transport and there is a crazy amount of money gone into public transport infrastructure.

I can see the government subsidising public transport massively over the next couple of years.

I was at birmingham airport and buses are running by national express frequently, and thats in a pandemic.

As we learn more about the virus, you will see schools go back to normal etc too.

This is a reassuring RNS.

- The level of detail they have on every contract is great, very transparent in every single segment/contract, most of which are positive.

-Cash and loan facilities significantly more then the entire market cap, they arent going anywhere.

-They have pretty much said they are assuming negative impact into q4 and still believe they will be profitable

-reduced capex and costs where needed so they dont have a bunch of fixed costs like say cineworld with empty buildings not being used or shops that cant open.

Overall, this will drift back into the 200s within 2-3 weeks in my view.

Possible the results are good with them being released a week from now so a leak?

Could just be the usual bouncing up and down though as its lost a lot of value over the last few weeks so dont want to over analyze.

good luck all

If anyone could a fall of a share price from 150p to 50p, they wouldnt be posting on some random forum.

You can estimate falls and increases as best as you can for the 10-30% swings, but whenever i hear garbage of 150p to 50p with no basis, its complete garbage.

Couldn’t agree more monk

I topped up today also , if it falls further - I don’t care as I’m not guessing the bottom but I know where it should be worth broadly (250-350p)