Member Info for jazz_01

Yes it looks as though we may assault the 150p range this month a few times before it holds anyway.

All we need is 3-4% everyday and it will get there in short order....we haven’t had the bizzare everyday of selling in a while and we are already trending up against the last few weeks lows

Not saying buy out to ramp as i know its very unlikely, but the chances are much higher in my opinion in the months after the peak of the pandemic so firms can assess future prospects and have a better understanding of value then before.

Ive been involved in quite a few shares who eventually got took over, many in different industries...no one would of thought they would of got taken over at the time neither, theres a reason the share prices jump 30-50% in a single day in take overs...its because it wasnt expected.

Not ramping as nothing we say here makes any diff to the SP...its just one speculative possibility.

Dont let a small 10-20% profit tempt you to sell when this thing will go to 200p plus by the end of the year (in my opinion) and 300p by this time next year...thats if it hasnt been taken over by then.

If I was NEX, id be looking to acquire competitors that offer synergies and are highly profitable at stupidly low valuations, and let the weaker ones go bust and take over the contracts on the cheap...probably negotiate a 5-10% increase in price at the same time too and your in a strong position to get it.

Will be a very interesting year.

Your talking about a £1 vs £2 swing which is a 100% swing in valuation and your basing that on 1 days worth of trading movement?

It is completely irrelevant. Its mugs who focus on daily movements that lose all the money.

Not exactly a shock that we fell from todays high as we havent had a proper blue day in weeks.

Probably PIs who are just trying to get out and cut their losses at an sign of blue.

Same thing happened when this went from 66p to 270p, the amount of times it hit a new high and people kept saying thats the top and they bail out, only for it to continue north.

NEX will have its day again!

I believe the reason for NEXs current share price is a couple of factors:

- Transport is still seen as high risk.
-Media/sentiment makes it look as though recovery will be slow for years to come.
-NEX has fallen alongside the wider transport industry, not so much because of specifics but still some specifics that brought it down hard:
-CEO left
-Placing at 230p 20% dilution
-No profit projection due to uncertainty
-Risk of lockdowns
-No real big buys since the CEO has left, directors or otherwise.

If you look at the DOW/S&P 500 in comparison to FTSE, we have lagged 20% or so behind, but if you look further into the makeup of the rise of the US Stock markets, its mainly due to tech firms, so you can argue the whole market is still well down in comparison when excluding those.....everyone has been jumping into apple/amazon etc.

Moved up 10% without an RNS...

Any positive results/contract wins (which wont be unheard of considering NEX has been taking over various smaller contracts in the west midlands AND adding on routes) will result in 10% increases easily.

New CEO would be another 10-15% alone.

Director buys from there (if any) will send this north 10-15% again.

Vaccines - send it north

Cases reducing in spain - will send this north

US Schools opening fine - again into the skys.

There really is a number of ways this will go sky high, and only 1 or 2 cases which will crash this, that being further lockdowns (possible but negligible impact to NEX) , failed vaccines (unlikely as so many in the pipeline) or losing a major contract or it slips into losses with no real way to get it profitable for year or two through a further downgrade on profits.

Overall as ive said, look at this 10% jump in a 5 year chart, you cant even see it make a dent, that shows just how much there is for this to go north.

Dead cat bounce? we havent seen a single bounce in 2 months, the first sign of vaccine cures and a US plan for vaccination and this pops 8%. What do you think will happen once Spain, UK, Germany who are NEXs markets also announce similiar plans?

For all those people saying why arent directors buying:

- Just because they are directors, this doesnt mean they are made out of cash they are normal people like you and me with bills to pay. They also probably have many shares currently.

-If you have actually worked in a corporate environment in a company that is listed, you will be shocked at how little connection there is between day to day workings, the culture, the sentiment and the direction it is within the organisation vs externally with things like share price movements. Some staff literally have NO idea what is going on share price wise who are in mid to senior positions.

-If there is something in the works that is highly sensitive such as a takeover, merger, large contract win, how can the directors purchase in the run up to it?

Overall, I have been completely useless in predicting the fall from 270p to where it is at now and i was sitting on a 120% gain which is now -15% over the matter of 2 months.

Yet the fundamentals for which i had chosen to buy in havent changed, the same reason i didnt sell at 270p is the same reason i still hold, because i believe this company is worth significantly more.

This pandemic will knock out all the weak suppliers and NEX will pick up assets on the cheap, cut duplication in routes, continuously win contracts and diversify. They have a fantastic business model and were operating at 400p plus pre pandemic.

Buy for me if you have no position, hold if you are a holder as its impossible to guess where this SP will be in 6 months.

No growth? have you seen the revenue figures and profits for the last 5-10 years?

even if the revenue gets to 60-70% of the value of what it previously was and slowly goes up couple of % YoY after that...this still puts the share price at double what it should be at the very least.

UK investors really tend to ignore the splits of where the revenue actually comes from. Just because your local news channel is talking about some random lockdown in a small town in the UK, this is completely insignificant when looking at the makeup of NEXs revenue.

US have pumped trillions into the markets, you think they will leave schools closed? whats doubling the school bus network for the next 3-6 months to improve social distancing going to do to their finances? nothing, thats even if they need to.

Train network in germany can be increased in frequency, on top of that they probably arent running at 100% capacity all the time anyway.

UK is in a strong position, cant see schools shutting down all of a sudden.

Spain to me is the only risk real risk at the moment and is rightfully discounted.

Be greedy when others are fearful...

I have knowledge of the transport industry first hand, all passenger numbers are increasing daily, still below normal but 0 concern from any of the big public transport providers.

This share however has been a bargain for the last 6 weeks with it falling almost every single day with a blue day maybe once every 2 weeks.....I cant see what would stop the fall other then a technical bounce purely based on how much it has fallen.

I also cant see any news that will change this other then CEO update, large contract win, or some sort of news on further government support.

The share price still makes 0 sense to me, i can understand it falling from 270-280p to around 230p as the rise was too quick, but for it to be at half the price major institutions brought in at screams a buy all day from me.

I simply havent topped up due to wanting to diversify but NEX is my biggest holding with my first buy at 74p, though my average is now 135p. Half the value it was in April, makes no sense to me.

Now valued at £730m, ripe for takeover.

Another interesting article about bus provider providing more services to ensure social distancing temporarily

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-53940054

People were saying the same thing when "Idiots" were buying into house builders in Nov 2008 like Taylor Wimpey at 10p a share.

Everything is perspective and relative to the levels being traded at, its easy to talk about how big a 50% swing is when the share price has been battered. But people tend to miss the 5 year horizon where if you was to ask anyone, how many would say the share price is at or below 130p then? Its more a question of has it gone up 200% or 400% in that time period.

All intra day trends and daily movements when we are still in dire times are completely irrelevant.

Market valuations are all over the place, whatever people say about NEX, this was 280p POST covid not long ago.

Good youtube video on NEX:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_BMF50jH3c

Have a look at a 15-20 year chart for NEX and see if you can see what happens after every sharp drop....

Then consider if this drop is more material or less then the previous, then consider the progress made in size since then.

I've said it a few times but I just feel with the position NEX is in and the current valuation it is at, this thing will get taken over and delisted at a small premium....

Price is ridiculous, look at the revenue and profit trends over the last 5 years for example, every year is an improvement which to me represents a growth company. Combine that with its 70% discount to pre covid prices and then look at all previous RNS's stating they have plenty of cash and are positive EBITDA.

Don't think Ive ever seen a share so bizarrely priced in all my days of trading.

Covid risk should be at the most 100-150p off the pre covid price, thats still practically £1 billion plus wipped off, but for this to be currently at £814m market cap it really shows just how disconnected the market is to reality.

DYOR