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Come on capdailbrit,
Do the maths !
Just read the TLW outlook for 2022 - fcf for year forecast at only 100m !!!?? You will be waiting until 2023 for any meaningful fcf (at best) Debt will be serviced plus you may knock a measly 100m off it !
ENQ did more than that in H! 2021 (147m) I have on my forecast a 600-700m fcf for 2022. Their update next week will either confirm or deny me my expected fcf for 2022.
Agreed Oiluser,
However ENQ should have free cash flow of circa 350-400m for 2021 . Where TLW who produce 20% more only has 250m.
This is telling me ENQ are able to squeeze more fcf from less production. Maybe they have a better control of costs ?
I still think that I am sitting on the better "horse" !
Can't you see the strategy or are you blind !
It's rinse and repeat - Tullow are chasing production and are not chasing debt reduction.
Yes you will replace depletion but you will not see any meaningful debt reduction =
Any Profits will be used to service the high debt at a high interest rate ! Any money left after Capex and Opex will go to the Banks , not you !
I can't see any value left for shareholders !
What FCF will TLW make in 2022 ? fcuk alls
I think you are seriously wrong gold_hummingbird.
It is ALL about Yanfolila at the moment because it's the only thing putting any money in the bank to pay the bills and wages. Without Yanfolila, then no revenue - Or are you looking for another equity raise ?
No - silly statement by you ! If Yanfolila makes good profit then you shareholder's will not need to dip your hands in your pockets again. If it makes a loss then you could be asked too, unless new mines can be fully funded by bank loans. Which are likely to be at high interest rates. So you then have a scenario of making money for the payment of bank interest.
NO they need to manage Yanfolila better !
Tullow, not going for paying down debt then !
They followed this high growth production strategy before, and look where that got them !
- High debt and High interest payments and Huge Market Slide in valuation ! Looks like they are keeping the same old strategy which did not work last time - Rinse and repeat !
Enquest looks the best place to be !
Yes story run by marketwatch too.
Rahul Dhir, chief executive at Tullow Oil saying 250m fcf for 2021. Their Market Cap is over 800m
We should do fcf of 350m - 400m in my opinion for 2021. Our Market Cap is under 400m. I see US closing this gap between us and Tullow as well as benefiting from sector growth due to POO. We are very profitable compared to our peers ! More Incoming investment for ENQ over the next few months will drive up our valuation as we have excellent cost control.
New 52 week low today, so maybe the bottom is not "in" yet !
To give balance - maybe it is !
However I feel that the market needs some assurances on "stability" in Mali along with new improved production and costs data. At present , one for the "watchlist" only !
Not gone private, surprised me . Along with the fact that the share price has not dropped a lot further due to Putin being on the door=step !
2023 is when Copper will boom.
The electric car revolution will not really get going until 2023 when volume can be ramped-up.
Supply chain issues are lekely to hold things up until then.
As recent history has taught us !
HUM is not a purely "gold play".
You need the 3 ducks to line up in a line;
1) - It's also a gamble on Mali politics and unrest.
2) - It's a gamble on production and costs of ( wet season, damage etc)
3) - It's a gamble on Price Of Gold.
When or If the 3 ducks line up, will determine your maximum/true valuation.
I would just add, predicting option 3 is possibly the easiest of the 3 options, which is why many here talk about POG and do not do enough research on Mali politics.
I feel for you romaron.
These tests are very missleading romaron. You have been conned because ............
Sadly the 5.9% you have down as Scandinavian on the test, only came about because of the few white/blonde hairs you have due to your age.
I know this because my test came back as 44.7% Scandinavian, 51.2% Chingford and 4.1% Nigerian !?!???
I guess the Nigerian bit came about because of my lovely Sun Tan.
Likewise there is no reason to assume Magnus is not fully repaired, as it is equally likely that it is !
Definition of fully repaired being - it is producing around the same levels (+or-up to 10%) as it was prior to the outage.
All we can say is that Magnus IS producing , otherwise it would be a "Material Difference" and that would need a RNS .
Come on Bushytailed, let me give you an example of when there should be some accountability or explanation given !
Let's say I am a new novice investor. I read the posts of an experienced investor with say over 48,000 posts. He says the share price will go up to ..... This is seriously undervalued ......Buy one mine and get one free...... and there is serious profit to be made here in the next 6 months. I will surely be in profit ! I listen to this experienced investor and buy shares. Roll on 5 months and I am 40% underwater. I think the poor novice is owed an explanation, don't you ?
Maybe you and I don't need one, fair enough, I agree . Maybe the novice has learnt a few things about the market now. Maybe he has learnt not to listen to forecasts on posting boards. But maybe someone should admit and explain to him how they got it wrong ! Also what the real risks are going forward.
Do you agree Bushy or is it "let's stuff the new guys" , their fault they should know better ?
I see a "Chink In Your Armour" there Bonker99 !
Back in Sept and Oct 2021 you were saying "6 months" to your payday. That would take you until March 2022.
A few weeks away from now.
However now you are saying that payday won't be until H2 2022 another 6 months or more !
Why has your time line slipped?
You did not mention that you got it wrong in any of your recent posts !
You seem to be making it up as you go along !
When we get to H2 will it slip again to H1 2023 ?
The fact it is you rely a lot on POG and that is unpredictable. Managment here need to perform better too !
The fact is you are currently underwater with NO short term sight of reversing that !
Medium term the stars may align, but that's got nothing to do with a finger in the air forecast.