Member Info for January2

yep spot on hitman !
nothing goes up in a straight line !

The night has been good for POO.
Nearly $88 and a good day ahead for the SP.

Hi E121 ,
Thanks for filling in some of the missing detail from my post earlier today.
As for $200 oil. I guess we need some articles like that so that $100-$120 oil looks like just a "walk in the park".
Everything crossed in the belief that 2022 is our year. POO looks like it's going to help us for once. Just need Enquest to confirm production of 50-56k bpd for 2022. With fcf targets of 600-700m.
Shame that so many party's in Downing Street and we just want One party for 60p.

Good point.
I think that they may lift production a bit too. However not by 1m bpd.
500k is more likely the ceiling.. maybe less as they need to replace exhausted ducts.

Now that we are in 2022 and the US shale companies will be spending their 2022 budgets.
It will be interesting to see over the coming weeks/months how much of this cash has been allocated to spend on new rigs !
I shall be watching the US rig count with interest over the coming months to get an answer to this question. Next rig count out at 6pm this evening.
I mention this because I have read reports in the press about US production adding around 1m bpd this year. For US production to increase by that amount then the rig count needs to increase by a large number , over the current level of 588.
I just don't see that happening. I guess Jeff Currie and Fransisco Blanch possibly agree with me. Hence their $100+ forecasts for the price of oil.
The Force Is With Us.
JAN

If anything they need to "right back" the impairments they made in 2020 due to very low oil prices.
In addition, the reserves "in the ground" are worth much more now.
Romaron made the same point in his post and he is right.
Personally in the future, I can see "right backs" ( impairment reversals ) rather than more impairments.
The opposite of what squif was suggesting. Sorry I mean Slift. Or is it Squif the old fellow ?

I am with Fransico Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America.
$100 by begining of Qtr2 2022. ( yes that's BY early April) And he forecasts $120 oil by begining of summer.
Looking at the number of holiday bookings going through the travel industry at present and the market fundermentals.
I think he is going to be right !
Hold on to your hats, we're going places !

Yes.

Hi Therapist,
Sorry I got that wrong.
I saw your 4.00am post and remembered that you won the bollinger. I assumed that you were finishing the bottle at that time.
Agree with your thoughts on Magnus. We know the oil is there. We know it can be got out. Enquest may have already sorted the issues out and are waiting for the update to advise the market. Sadly they are not going to give Savemore the news first, are they ! Worth a try though Savemore.
All the best
Jan

Hi romaron,
We can debate if KO is a shareholder or not, however I have no proof.
I can only say that he has been hear as KO for years and even longer as he has a previous avatar which was "repairer" , hence the repairer spike ( which related to a 10% rise or more).
He gets very emotional at times, but that tends to prove he is a shareholder. I believe he is ! However it's your right to take a different view. I have NO problem with that.
I do feel that a competition should be open to all long term posters . I agree laidback and oil are fly by nights, however KO has been with us for years. Please add his 46.60p to your list and keep him on filter if you like.
I am just asking, that's all.
All the best
JAN

As we live in a democracy.
Re: KO
I think Krakenoil should be allowed to take part in the competition !
If you support this view please click on "recommend" my post.
Maybe If the support is high enough then the organiser will let him participate ! After all it's a competition and not dating.

Good morning romaron,

You missed-off your list my very important 60p Party forecast .
Oversight ?

Interesting post !

I think it shows - best NOT to post when you have had a few too many drinks !

No chilting,
My 60p forecast is based on ENQ at 54k bpd along with Jeff Currie and Eric Nuttal getting it right on POO.
I see $100+ oil in 2022 and into 2023. It will take sustained investment and time to get supply back.
Yes I am banking on "blue sky" but hey aren't we due some ?
All the best to everyone.
JAN

Good morning romaron,
Having spent some time on the challenge over the last few days. Working through my numbers and the likely possibilities.
I was coming to a conclusion in the early 40's and then it hit me !
I am 'January" the originator of the 60p Party. It was my suggestion and my target. I have NO choice - 60p is my forecast for the challenge.
What you guys need to understand is - Like in Star Wars " The Force Is With Me".
The team I have behind me of Jeff Currie and Eric Nuttal will ensure my success in this challenge. You other challengers are lost on the dark side. You will be crushed. The prize is mine ! (and the party will be yours )

But the difference is ENQ is still alive and growing while the old PMO is dead !

Hitman, thanks for your thoughts on the SP.
I hear ( from Jeff Currie) that only 2 OPEC members can raise production levels. The market is being to see that Oil supply levels from OPEC are truly limited in the near future . POO should be a "given" in supporting the SP here in the sort term at least. We therefore await the early FEB update to see 2022 production guidance and confirmation of asset performance.
Short term I could see a 30p SP by the end of FEB if we get an excellent update with $85 or more POO.
For the rest of 2022 we need to know what the real fundermentals are with oil. Time will tell.

Romaron, with regard to the Competition. I am still number crunching but will submit my bid at the weekend as you suggest.

Just out , showing a large 6.432m draw !
Should help keep POO high tomorrow.

Maybe keeping really simple and keep it as 2021 - Average oil price for 2022.
After all that's what drove the initial discussion and thus competition. Why change it ?
Secondly FCF and SP are a result of POO anyway, although not in isolation.
I will go with what romaron (competition referee) decides.
All the best
JAN

Happy New Year to everyone.

Hi romaron,
Yes, no objections or re-count requests from me. I got Brent average for 2021 at $70.4.
Google agrees with me, so looks like Therapist wins. Maybe he could send me the Cork as a runner up prize .
I can't see your forecast in there romaron ? I think you should have a go too this year.
2022 will be very difficult to forecast. If we see $100+ oil for any length of time then the average will be way above the 2021 number.
Wishing everyone a profitable 2022, although I don't expect to see a 60p Party in 2022. But stranger things have happened !
All the best.
JAN.

To all posters .
And wishing you all a prosperous New year !