Member Info for January2

I think the board read my 2 posts yesterday on the subject of Directors buying,
A good sign !

Gurun,
2021 saw exceptional outages/issues at 3 fields. An unlucky year for production problems.
All 3 could or should be fixed by end qtr1. Thèn you have GE on top.
Pelle is spot on with his numbers. You are not factoring improvements that come with the "fixes".

opps, I forgot .

Spurs Forever.

Spurs vs Wolves 13/2 = tickets booked
Spurs vs West Ham 19/3 = tickets booked
60p Party 16/12 = tickets booked !!!

Interesting video L3. While I was watching ,it reminded me of that song "who let the dogs out".
I think you will find that this makes better viewing L3.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/90-Oil-Is-Only-The-Beginning.html

Roll on 700m fcf !

Never mind regular updates Bushy !
Why won't just one board member buy some stock ?
Lets assume HUM is fantastic value going forward. They know more than us about the business and the future. Are their salaries so huge working as a director of HUM that they don't need to make any more cash by holding stock ?
I was taught 2 importent tips when I started investing -
1) follow the money (well it seems to be leaving at the moment)
2) follow the directors buys ( there ain't any )
So it stays on my watchlist and the money stays in my pocket, for now !

The Directors need to show some confidence in the future by "buying some shares".
Surely, if what the likes of Bonker says is true then the directors would also see an easy way to make some cash and buy shares ?
That's the signal to buyfor me !

Falling Knife -
Why have so many of you experienced guys been trying to catch it ?

Someone here posted 8p and I thought they were mad ! It wellnever go that low. .
Looks like they could be right!
I think it's now sensible to wait and see the true "bottom " form and hear truely positive news before diving in here to buy !

"Nice and steady this morning. Should see a climb come afternoon."

A large dollop of "egg on the face" there BloodyRedBaron !

Always happens when you say things like that. Lesson learnt ! Should come back Monday as I think the -6.17% seems overdone.

Like for Like -
Maybe some of that fcf will be spent later in 2022 on another production field purchase !
What fcf if $100 POO is hit at end of QTR1, and stays above it for the remainder of 2022 ?
ENQ offering the best risk vs reward numbers since I have been invested !

Agreed Savemore,
How can it be laughable Slift - Your the one having a laugh !
- When 2021 fcf will be around 350m with POO at $67. (it was circa 150 at H1)
- 2022, Now we have Golden Eagle for the full year , so production is going to be greater than 2021 AND we see POO at $89
today ! If not 700m then maybe a little more OR a little less, but not laughable !

I think qtr4 results will look poor, however in this update 2022 guidance is given. That I believe will be very positive.
As the market looks forward and not back, I think you will see a nice 10%+ rise!

Indy,
You are right. All will be revealed by Enquest.
The unveiling begins with the next update.
Indy, I think FCF for 2021 will be just above 300m. It was 147m at H1 2021 and Enquest normally do a bit better in H2. Could be as high as 350m.
All the best

L7 - my production forecast = production numbers.
Earlier Basic P&L = crude sales.

londoner7 - published production numbers

MY 50k bpd latest base forecast - 2022

Kraken 19,000 boepd (net)
Magnus 13,000 boepd
Other 3,000 boepd
GEAD 10,000 boepd
Malaysia 5,000

Total 50k bpd

Hi L3Trader,
Hope you are keeping well.
Sorry for the delay in getting back to your earlier post @11.06, been very busy today.
Anyway, yes around 35% production for 2022 hedges at $76 ceiling (leaving 65%). I guess it depends on you views about POO for 2022.
I believe we have NOT yet seen the highs for 2022. Indeed like many analysts I see $100 oil this year. That being the case $80 average is more than an achievable average for the year. My forecasting got me 2nd place in the POO forecast competition run by romaron. Therapist won at $70. I was 2nd with $67 average for 2021. So I believe $80 is a fair average to use in forecasting for 2022.
L3 did you forget about Golden Eagle production of 10k for 2022 ?

I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls

7mbls @ $76 = 532 mil
11.25mbls @ $80 = 900 mil
Total = 1,432 mil

Opex @ $20 = 365 mil
Capex = $150 mil
Interest = $100 mil
Decom = $120 mil
Total = $735 mil

Free Cash Flow = $1,432 mil - 735 mil = $697 mil (fcf)

Should leave net debt around $450-500mil by Xmas 2022

POO could smash average of $80 for 2022 - lets see how she goes !
All the best

JAN

Bonker99,
Wrong commodity mate.
- Oil is the darling at present.
Gold is due a good year and may yet become an inflation hedge, but NOT yet ! 2023 is my bet

Bonker99 - Your taking a Gamble on POG at present.

Could go either way. I think HUM will show a way forward to greater value in their future updates. QTR4 updates due in the coming days could help start a positive re-rate.
POG is a potential short term problem. Russia/Ukraine - If Putin agrees something positive with the US in the coming weeks it could add to further downward pressure on POG.
I guess if you buy and hold, for the long term pay-off - Just my opinion guys, DYOR and make your own calls !
All the best

Even if you play ultra safe. You get 50k bpd x $80 POO. = 4m per day revenue.

Revenue 2022 should be 1,460m or 1.46 billion.
FCF 700m seems right based on numbers.
End of 2022 debt should be down to circa 400m and share price 50-60p.
I see Dividends 2023

Z.F.G,

- hi, hope all's well. I got Brent at $89.57 as I type. You got $91.
I am looking at April contract pricing, I guess you are looking at March contract.
Anyway NO worries, it's at a bloody nice price which ever one you pick ! lol