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Maybe some of that fcf will be spent later in 2022 on another production field purchase !
What fcf if $100 POO is hit at end of QTR1, and stays above it for the remainder of 2022 ?
ENQ offering the best risk vs reward numbers since I have been invested !
Agreed Savemore,
How can it be laughable Slift - Your the one having a laugh !
- When 2021 fcf will be around 350m with POO at $67. (it was circa 150 at H1)
- 2022, Now we have Golden Eagle for the full year , so production is going to be greater than 2021 AND we see POO at $89
today ! If not 700m then maybe a little more OR a little less, but not laughable !
Indy,
You are right. All will be revealed by Enquest.
The unveiling begins with the next update.
Indy, I think FCF for 2021 will be just above 300m. It was 147m at H1 2021 and Enquest normally do a bit better in H2. Could be as high as 350m.
All the best
Hi L3Trader,
Hope you are keeping well.
Sorry for the delay in getting back to your earlier post @11.06, been very busy today.
Anyway, yes around 35% production for 2022 hedges at $76 ceiling (leaving 65%). I guess it depends on you views about POO for 2022.
I believe we have NOT yet seen the highs for 2022. Indeed like many analysts I see $100 oil this year. That being the case $80 average is more than an achievable average for the year. My forecasting got me 2nd place in the POO forecast competition run by romaron. Therapist won at $70. I was 2nd with $67 average for 2021. So I believe $80 is a fair average to use in forecasting for 2022.
L3 did you forget about Golden Eagle production of 10k for 2022 ?
I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls
7mbls @ $76 = 532 mil
11.25mbls @ $80 = 900 mil
Total = 1,432 mil
Opex @ $20 = 365 mil
Capex = $150 mil
Interest = $100 mil
Decom = $120 mil
Total = $735 mil
Free Cash Flow = $1,432 mil - 735 mil = $697 mil (fcf)
Should leave net debt around $450-500mil by Xmas 2022
POO could smash average of $80 for 2022 - lets see how she goes !
All the best
JAN
Bonker99 - Your taking a Gamble on POG at present.
Could go either way. I think HUM will show a way forward to greater value in their future updates. QTR4 updates due in the coming days could help start a positive re-rate.
POG is a potential short term problem. Russia/Ukraine - If Putin agrees something positive with the US in the coming weeks it could add to further downward pressure on POG.
I guess if you buy and hold, for the long term pay-off - Just my opinion guys, DYOR and make your own calls !
All the best
Even if you play ultra safe. You get 50k bpd x $80 POO. = 4m per day revenue.
Revenue 2022 should be 1,460m or 1.46 billion.
FCF 700m seems right based on numbers.
End of 2022 debt should be down to circa 400m and share price 50-60p.
I see Dividends 2023
Z.F.G,
- hi, hope all's well. I got Brent at $89.57 as I type. You got $91.
I am looking at April contract pricing, I guess you are looking at March contract.
Anyway NO worries, it's at a bloody nice price which ever one you pick ! lol
Looking at last years Feb update, you won't get fcf for 2022.
Simply put, You will get;
2021 - net debt year end, production , POO, hedges and ops info historic.
2022 - production guidance, hedges, ops info and any new plans !
Scrodingercat,
Why pop at me. You should be speaking to your CE. They are HIS figures. Read the RNS man.
Are you saying that your CE is not a honest broker ?
I am the messenger that's all.
Anyway off out to dine with friends, catch you all later.
Antonvb
Lol, You must think people on this board are stupid. They can all see that -
If you truly did not give a sh...,.t. Then why would you reply to me ? You replied because you do care. So you don't tell the truth.
In my experience people like you start the swearing when you have Lost the argument.
Calm down and take the emotion out of it matey. It will make you a better investor and person !
Bushy will pay the 8 million !
He knows a "dead cert" when he sees one !
- Look maybe this is the bottom now.
It could be, providing there is good news to come and NO more dissapointments ! oh and POG does not fall !
But who knows .
sandyr1,
You will pay down bugger all debt in 2022.
In your CE's own words, you will have only 100m to do it !
Some on here are saying Kenya blah blah and talking as if you know more than your own CE does about the numbers. He's the boss, he knows what TLW are doing and how that equates to the P&L and Balance Sheet.
antonvb and candi,
You are obviously investors that live in the past and like to "look back".
Best to look forward eh ! I prefer to look at what money I WILL be making in the future !
The SP at ENQ will rocket due to the high FCF being made this year 2022.
Sadly TLW ( your CE's own words ) look to just make a poultry 100m fcf to pay off debt - I can't see this going anywhere until 2023 at the earliest. You have a long wait lads !
Maybe why your stuck in the past !!!!!
The Maths;
TLW = 2021- fcf 250m Debt 2.1b 2022 - fcf 100m Debt 2.0b
ENQ = 2021 -fcf 350m Debt 1.3b 2022 - fcf 600m Debt just 700m
Now TLW have confirmed their figures, however we only have H1 for ENQ confirmed, however many on the ENQ board have come to the same conclusion on fcf. lets see what Enquest say next week !
It looks to me that the horse that I am on is just starting to "Canter" while yours is still "pulled-up Lame"
Would you agree ?