Member Info for January2

Must be a typo there Spin,
guess you meant "correction".
Little tip, for you Spin.
Always best to keep both hands on your keyboard when typing out your message !

For those of you who are not skilled technical chartists, like myself. I will keep this simple ;
From the recent high. Wave 1,2,and 3 formed a downward zig zag correction pattern with a lot of Zag but not much zig !
We are currently in wave 4 which is a rolling "Hawaii Five O ". Once this dissipates and is surfed-off. We then enter the exciting Wave 5 which is known as the "Escalator". Looking at the fibbing archie level that takes up smartish to just over $96 for WTI.

No, seriously - WTI going to $96.93 soon. check this out !

https://talkmarkets.com/content/commodities/us-oil-fresh-highs-for-intermediate-impulse-wave-5?post=344155

The Golden Dragon,
I have been here since 2015/16.
It was around 3 years ago that I got "fed up"with the waiting .
Like some more recent investors (only a few years here) are showing signs of now.
Rather than get negative I still saw the potential. As I do today. However enough is enough. I have had a target price of 60p for years. FOR the first time I have a TIME target of 31/12/2022.
We will really see by the MAY 2022 operational update if things are coming together !
All the best
JAN

With POO At these prices, debt is being seriously reduced each day.
Debt down to circa 700m at year end.
500m reduction has to be worth +25p on today's share price.
Assuming the same valuation criteria as today that's 45p share price.
If the UK valuations become more P/E positive (like US / Canada) then we could see a share price of 60p or more.
Thats' realistic !

"25p first port of call".
That's what Barclays think too, hitman. AND quite some thinks !
The past is behind us. Would like to think that a clever man learns from his mistakes and becomes a better CEO because of them. It's got to start to happen here this year, or it never will. We will have a better picture in a couple of months.
JAN

Squif,
Let me help you with the English there.
I do sympathise, as English is a difficult language to understand.
"Build It" refers to Enquest the company. (and not romaron)
"And they will come" refers to positive quality investors ( and not negative ones like yourself).
Should you require any more translations feel free to ask.
With a name like Squif, may I ask - are you from North Korea ?

Tarmak,
Thank you very much for sharing your research. Fantastic detail .
I share your concerns regarding Magnus and look forward to Enquest arresting the decline there.
As we have had more than our fair share of production problems in 2021, I am hope that in 2022 we see things run much more smoothly and acording to plan !
All the best.
JAN

Slit,
We did 400m fcf in 2021 with 44k at $68 oil.
If you believe that oil will be higher in2022 then you know fcf will be too !

ZFG,
At 90 oil net debt down to 600m
At 100 oil down to just 500m debt.

Thanks guys for all your help.
Much appreciated.

Thanks for the feedback hitman.
Maybe light on "other" but maybe my "interest" is a bit high.
Missed the leasing, will check/adjust.
POO is the key.
We have 9.65mbls that are not hedged and will benefit from POO at $93, $100 or more !
Interesting - If POO averaged at circa $140 for 2022 then we would be "debt free" at year end !!!! (fcf 1,200)

The Fag Packet has been adjusted using actual Enquest numbers from the OU.

I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls (within Enquest guidance)

8.60 mbls @ $78 = 670 mil (actual hedged data Enquest)
9.65 mbls @ $85 = 820 mil (using POO annual average of $85)

Revenue Total = 1,490 mil

Opex = 430 mil
Capex = 165 mil
Interst = 100 mil
Decom = 75 mil
Other = 50 mil

TOTAL = $820 mil

Free Cash Flow = $1,490 mil - 820 mil = 670 mil FCF for 2022

Should leave net debt only $550 mil by Xmas 2022

As of today I see this as "base case". POO is likely to break $100

HI L3,
You said in your post to E121 @13.11 - "ii) OPEX at $370M, and others were at least $50M less than that..."
NOT True -
I posted to you on 28/1 @20.53. My OPEX figure was $365M

Robbie11,
Firstly he doesn't need the money to do a sneaky deal like that. When you have more than enough money then you have other ambitions than make yet even more money ! AB wants to be successful and a winner. He wants to "give back" hence his charitable organisation.
Secondly, and the most obvious. He would have done that when the SP was just 7p. Why wait and pay 3,4,5 x more.
NO - sadly life and the explanation is more simple. Some early bad calls, (lessons learnt) and some Very bad luck (coronavirus).
It's taken a long time but you will see a much different company at the end of 2022. An investors dream !

Thanks Tarmak,
great research. I always read your data with much interest.
You obviously have a big one !
- Fag packet, for your calculations.

It's OK, Being forgetful is normal, It's your age.
No shame.

No Z.F.G.
That was me !
Just spreading the love around.

Romaron mada a valid comment, we have to have it, it's in the small print. Covenants.
The Facts are though;
Going forward, We have protected ourselves too the downside. If POO collapses we will still be here !
AND we enjoy 50% of the price benefit of POO above the ceiling of $78.
So at $82 POO we will average $80 .
Or
As today $92 we average $85 making massive FCF

KO - Here's what has changed.
We have never had debt below 1B.
This year we will have - And by H1 results !
That reduction will add to our valuation. The sentiment will change soon.

POO just burst through $92,
Currently $92.32
21p SP incoming lads as we get close to $95 POO . AND remember 22p when we get to $100