The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Thanks for the feedback hitman.
Maybe light on "other" but maybe my "interest" is a bit high.
Missed the leasing, will check/adjust.
POO is the key.
We have 9.65mbls that are not hedged and will benefit from POO at $93, $100 or more !
Interesting - If POO averaged at circa $140 for 2022 then we would be "debt free" at year end !!!! (fcf 1,200)
The Fag Packet has been adjusted using actual Enquest numbers from the OU.
I have production Figures @ 50k bpd = 18.25 mbls (within Enquest guidance)
8.60 mbls @ $78 = 670 mil (actual hedged data Enquest)
9.65 mbls @ $85 = 820 mil (using POO annual average of $85)
Revenue Total = 1,490 mil
Opex = 430 mil
Capex = 165 mil
Interst = 100 mil
Decom = 75 mil
Other = 50 mil
TOTAL = $820 mil
Free Cash Flow = $1,490 mil - 820 mil = 670 mil FCF for 2022
Should leave net debt only $550 mil by Xmas 2022
As of today I see this as "base case". POO is likely to break $100
Robbie11,
Firstly he doesn't need the money to do a sneaky deal like that. When you have more than enough money then you have other ambitions than make yet even more money ! AB wants to be successful and a winner. He wants to "give back" hence his charitable organisation.
Secondly, and the most obvious. He would have done that when the SP was just 7p. Why wait and pay 3,4,5 x more.
NO - sadly life and the explanation is more simple. Some early bad calls, (lessons learnt) and some Very bad luck (coronavirus).
It's taken a long time but you will see a much different company at the end of 2022. An investors dream !
Romaron mada a valid comment, we have to have it, it's in the small print. Covenants.
The Facts are though;
Going forward, We have protected ourselves too the downside. If POO collapses we will still be here !
AND we enjoy 50% of the price benefit of POO above the ceiling of $78.
So at $82 POO we will average $80 .
Or
As today $92 we average $85 making massive FCF
I posted many times 2021 H1 fcf was 147m and the full year fcf for 2021 would be 350m .
Some on here disputed my numbers and we're proved wrong. We actually exceeded the 350m and achieved nearly 400m !
Consulting my mystic Fag Packet again for 2022.
With all the 2022 plans for production I see levels around 50k (sales maybe a little less) and expecting POO to average $80 (maybe a little more). The Fag Packet therefore is saying revenue of $4m per day. 2022 revenue is $1.5 billion.
Plenty of FCF for all ! FCF Between 550 -700m.
Year end debt down to 500m - 650m = Happy Days.
What's All the Fuss About ?
After much number crunching and research, including multiple reads of the RNS today, I have put together my share price predictions based on the price of oil. Assuming production at 50k.
Brent at $90 = ENQ share price 20p
Brent at $95 = ENQ share price 21p
Brent at $100 = ENQ share price 22p
Brent at $120 = ENQ share price 25p
Finally ENQ share price 60p = Brent $437
I should be working for one of the big banks as an Analcyst !
Oh and thanks Squif. Another Analcyst.
lol mrc,
I think you are spot on there !
Barclays normally issue a broker update a week after this ENQ Feb ops rns. Well they (Barclays) have issued a revised Broker rateing for the last 2 years , just one week after this update .
Barclays rateing Due around 11/2.