Member Info for January2

Used to be known as "members". He was on the PMO board for ages ! Got banned for being a twat. Re-born as "oil" now being a twat on here !
Possibly trying to make himself feel better by having a few arguments on here ! takes his mind off his losses over on HBR and PMO. His losses were huge !

Acchi,
ENQ always give their guidance on production early in the year.
Check past years RNS's. Guidance given at end of January for that year.

Pop it in the post romaron.
Be careful when you lick the stamp though !

G. Eagle - 10,200
kraken - 20,400
Magnus - 14,800
Malaysia - 6,800
Other ns - 3,400

TOTAL = 55,600

Acchi,
That's NOt how I got to 55k. Never Assume !
Natural decline is known to be 7-8%. I used 12% in my numbers (5.3k bpd). Right that's the downside.
Then on the upside you have Malaysia to be fixed qtr2 2022. Plus magnus fix from end of this month. Mag us is the big one although I was cautious.
You Do the maths, 55kbpd is realistic.
My actual number comes in at 55,600 kbpd.

Well we should have got all the key issues resolved in readiness for 2022.
I see a fair forecast of production 55k bpd x $75 oil price gives 4,125,000 revenue per day.
That gives a total revenue for 2022 of 1.5 Billion.
Putting that in context. 2021 is going to come in around 1.1 Billion.
We know some of the parts are moving, stuff also happens, however I have fcf of 600m - 700m range as achievable for 2022 based on these numbers. Should production or POO come in higher then fcf will more than top the range. Hopefully with all the breakdowns out the way we should have a profitable and trouble-free year in 2022.

Austria lockdown, which is only 20 days maximum, as stated.
More like;
China getting ready to release a large quantity of Oil from their strategic reserve in co-ordination with US , India and others !
Could be a release by this group at the same time to fight high oil prices.
I have read China looking at 30m release.
This is what the market is worried of !

I think it's a version of being " 2 faced ".
Sadly.

E121,
You said -
"Like I said in the morning, I can't put a positive spin on today's update. The best we can hope for us
1. Fix magnus + PM8/Seligi
2. Hope Brent stays up (we've had bad luck with Brent in the past - this time around with all enormous liquidity sloshing about, we may have good luck with the lower hedging in 2022). I've always said that 2022 is the real year of high-price action for Brent, not 2021.
3. Pivot to share holder returns from Enq's management."

Answer =
1. Pivots to production. Enquest have confirmed One fixed this month and the other during qtr2 2022.
They will give 2022 production guidance early in 2022. Expect 55kbpd for 2022.
2. POO they have no control over ! However we both expect 2022 to be better than 2021 in pricing terms.
3. Shareholder returns. If we keep banging the drum. They will eventually come ! They must know that they have to "give " here or loose the confidence in their investors.

L3.
The words you use like "chasing" tell all. You say we are chasing debt payments !
Well, Facts are We don't know POO for 2022 or ENQ production guidance, so how in he'll are we chasing debt payments for 2022 ?
Just one example -

L3,
Sorry matey,
You are enjoying this too much !
otherwise

3.4m sold vs 4.7m baught.
More buyers than sellers at these prices.
Tells you something eh.

You need a cool head in this game.
If you must throw your toys out the pram, go do it elsewhere !

"Game still on here".
GE basically purchased with fcf from 2021.

Lads,
I have read all your "doom and gloom " posts.
For God's sake don't spend all day posting the same stuff. We have read it, and get your views.
I am now fed reading them. We get your message.
Yes it's all a bit disappointing for now, but this is in the past !!!!
I would love a 60p SP today.
Stuff happen. Enquest will fix it.

No romaron,
I am with you.
Still with my 55k bpd expectation for 2022.
POO will do what it does in 2022.
I still see revenue of 1.4 b + plus for 2022.

Production.
Kraken - "on one train until the repairs were completed". That says kraken is fixed.
Magnus - " November issues fixed". Sometime this month back to normal production levels.
Malaysia - " will be fixed during qtr2 2022.

So it looks to me that the problems are behind us !

Hi Savemore,
Yes you are right.
I was refering to a 30m one off release.

The threat of it does more good in keeping a lid on POO than actually doing it ! That's why I think it will just stay a threat.

Ammu,
The world is loseing production -
It is called "Natural Depletion".
I thought as an oil investor you would know this ? It's normal !
That's why some OPEC members are struggling to meet there quota.
That's why OIL is at $80 and all the banks are calling $90 or more !

L3,
I was not saying that !
The point I was making is that Enquest would have used the time to do maintanance as well as make good the outage. As they have done before. This helps negate the lost production time as they can save a shutdown to do maintanance in the new year !
This happened last year.
As for my 2022 production guidance. I was second guessing Enquest. 50-56kbpd. I know they have historically issued conservative figures. Historically they beat giudance with relative ease. This year is the exception.
After allowing for natural depletion and some work-overs , I am targeting 55kbpd as the figure i will be useing in my calculations for 2022.
All the best
JAN

L3,
I would imagine ENQ would have used this outage time to carry out routine maintanance as they have done previously with operational problems. This is one area that they have informed the market of, after the event.
Lets see what they say in the ops update.