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E121,
You said -
"Like I said in the morning, I can't put a positive spin on today's update. The best we can hope for us
1. Fix magnus + PM8/Seligi
2. Hope Brent stays up (we've had bad luck with Brent in the past - this time around with all enormous liquidity sloshing about, we may have good luck with the lower hedging in 2022). I've always said that 2022 is the real year of high-price action for Brent, not 2021.
3. Pivot to share holder returns from Enq's management."
Answer =
1. Pivots to production. Enquest have confirmed One fixed this month and the other during qtr2 2022.
They will give 2022 production guidance early in 2022. Expect 55kbpd for 2022.
2. POO they have no control over ! However we both expect 2022 to be better than 2021 in pricing terms.
3. Shareholder returns. If we keep banging the drum. They will eventually come ! They must know that they have to "give " here or loose the confidence in their investors.
L3.
The words you use like "chasing" tell all. You say we are chasing debt payments !
Well, Facts are We don't know POO for 2022 or ENQ production guidance, so how in he'll are we chasing debt payments for 2022 ?
Just one example -
3.4m sold vs 4.7m baught.
More buyers than sellers at these prices.
Tells you something eh.
You need a cool head in this game.
If you must throw your toys out the pram, go do it elsewhere !
"Game still on here".
GE basically purchased with fcf from 2021.
Lads,
I have read all your "doom and gloom " posts.
For God's sake don't spend all day posting the same stuff. We have read it, and get your views.
I am now fed reading them. We get your message.
Yes it's all a bit disappointing for now, but this is in the past !!!!
I would love a 60p SP today.
Stuff happen. Enquest will fix it.
Production.
Kraken - "on one train until the repairs were completed". That says kraken is fixed.
Magnus - " November issues fixed". Sometime this month back to normal production levels.
Malaysia - " will be fixed during qtr2 2022.
So it looks to me that the problems are behind us !
Ammu,
The world is loseing production -
It is called "Natural Depletion".
I thought as an oil investor you would know this ? It's normal !
That's why some OPEC members are struggling to meet there quota.
That's why OIL is at $80 and all the banks are calling $90 or more !
L3,
I was not saying that !
The point I was making is that Enquest would have used the time to do maintanance as well as make good the outage. As they have done before. This helps negate the lost production time as they can save a shutdown to do maintanance in the new year !
This happened last year.
As for my 2022 production guidance. I was second guessing Enquest. 50-56kbpd. I know they have historically issued conservative figures. Historically they beat giudance with relative ease. This year is the exception.
After allowing for natural depletion and some work-overs , I am targeting 55kbpd as the figure i will be useing in my calculations for 2022.
All the best
JAN
L3,
I would imagine ENQ would have used this outage time to carry out routine maintanance as they have done previously with operational problems. This is one area that they have informed the market of, after the event.
Lets see what they say in the ops update.
Here this morning reminds me of "Coronation Street" in the 1970's.
To clarify;
- Anything that has a "permanent material" affect on Production volumes would have to be reported immediately it was known !
- Anything else could wait until the "Ops Update".
This is my understanding. I think "Permanent Material" would include a known "Miss" on guidance. However GE volumes will ensure that a "miss" on guidance does not happen. So NO need for urgent RNS .
Sadly that's what has happened !
RE: Share Price Fall :
Enquest has told the market nothing. So, the fall is not their fault !
The only way "the market" has caught on to the issues at Kraken is from this posting board !
Those that are moaning are partly responsible for this fall ! - SO blame yourself !!!
If you talk about it on here then the news will get to the "market" soon enough.
However, bit of chicken and egg , as this is what the board is for !
Hi Mriggy,
Next big support line , I have at 21p.
Expecting this to hold. I do not agree with Stumpy's view, do not see us going down to those levels.
With 21p holding it gives us a double bottom which is seen as a positive springboard up to new highs !
For those who don't believe in technicals. Shame, because today shows the market/algo rythms DO react to them. We fell and closed below a previous key low of 23.25p. Then today we fall much more than piers because of it !
OPS update - The market looks forward,so we want good news on Kraken's future production. Problem fixed, plus all the good news on other production from GE, Magnus, etc. Any positive comments on falling debt will be great !
No, we have fallen much more than others due to Kraken hold up. Also today's big fall is due to us closing below our previous low of 23.25p. We now have a lower low which the market is punishing us for ! This normally signals the end of a bull run.
I mentioned this on a post a week ago.
We need a damn good operational update later this month.
Good Post, Zippy
You are right. Operational things happen and parts need to be replaced.
Never mind Enquest, though !
Think of my poor wife. My wife is working in the complete dark. The oven bulb has blown and she can't see anything she is cooking ! Food production is down and the quality is not as good. However I have ordered a new E14 Screw Oven bulb which will arrive next Monday. If she is nice to me, then I will fit it on Tuesday and all will be back to normal. The power and control is back with me for a few days ! I will enjoy it.
JAN