Member Info for jammin86

There's definitely no money for it, because companies like HUM more often than not go broke trying to get projects over the line.

HUM needs to focus on operational delivery for the two mines they have in operation and not be concerned with Dugbe for now

If you include dividends you undermine his point tho. Lmao

Who knows?

It's no surprise that the vast majority of individual investors underperform the market! Always selling in fear and buying in greed.

To be selling right now, you've gotta be pretty weak-handed imo

It's Friday. Lol. You mean rns on Monday

The volume isn't that poor though. I think what you mean is that the demand for shares ie the number of buys is very poor, hence lowering the price. All SPs are demand and supply driven. MMs don't want to hold stock, they just want to maximise volume. If there were buy orders and nobody was willing to sell at current prices, they'd raise prices just as easily! Which we saw a couple months back

Rule #1: Don't fall in love with a stock. It does not love you back.

He who invests without skepticism and caution loses their capital unless they get lucky.

It's precisely because I'm invested that I'm cognisant of the risks. I'm not negative - if I was, I'd have sold out!

Companies operating in Africa*

Quite chunky sales this morning, I guess some people are still in profit at these levels, or have little faith in HUM to deliver.

What on earth are you talking about? Lmao. I am literally from Africa, and furthermore I've been burned by investing in African countries precisely because of the political risks that you're quite happy to deny/overlook.

The market isn't wrong to apply an enormous risk premium to countries operating in Africa, and I too tend to avoid any African investments as a result. I was just tempted by gold and HUM, and I've not invested so much that I'd be broke if this all went tits up, which it absolutely could still do.

Until they make real progress in repaying debt, this is high risk. You can disagree, but importantly, the market seems to agree with me.

I am still long HUM, having bought unfairly recently at around current levels. I've added more at higher levels so I'm a little underwater.

I think the risk/reward trade off on HUM is much better than NVDA and AAPL, which is what I sold to fund this purchase.

Naaa, if you want to tell yourself that the risks of being in Africa aren't real and are a perception problem, you're alone. It's absolutely very risky. Raising taxes is one thing, what about full on appropriation?

There's a reason miners in Africa get low PEs, and it's not racism

Until the debt is repaid this is high risk. there is political risk in Mali, there is the risk that POG plummets, all sorts of operational risk clearly. Missteps at this point mean running into liquidity problems and requiring more capital.

If they repay debt quickly then you won't have to wait long though.

Of course the debt is priced in, but the mcap will exceed current mcap + debt by the time the debt is paid off as the risks are dramatically reduced.

Paying off £100m debt might add more like £300m to the mcap as multiples expand (derisking)

Exactly. US govt borrows another 1.8tr. Can't see them having any option but to inflate the debt away by printing money. Unlimited QE4EVA

30k from Kou is for 2023. Not the annual run rate thereafter

I think elsewhere they refer to deleveraging happening from Q4 23

LOL indeed. So they plan on repaying all debt (or having more cash than gross debt) by end of next year...

Gotcha, makes sense. Agreed that we need to consider the total, and indeed any debt repayment must first factor in current liabilities which I'd assume are more urgently payable.

I agree that Q3 will be financially tight and would not expect much deleveraging to have happened. it would be fantastic if we had enough cashflow to pay off the contractor costs and not borrow any more, and then begin repaying debt in Q4.

Every day that gold hovers around $1950, HUM makes bank. As long as gold holds steady we stand to win. If it was a foregone conclusion the price would already reflect it - its called a risk premium.

Go for it! it went from 5p to 20p pretty rapidly though

Billy, surely the unpaid contractor fees constitute a current liability ie debt. Are you saying that the quoted debt figure excludes current liabilities? It's a better way of saying the same thing - expenses that have been incurred but not paid are obviously liabilities ie debt

Go look at every single junior commodity exploration company and the share price graph looks the same.

Investors (suckers) get drawn in by the hype, the share loses upwards of 90% since financing costs are so high. And eventually, those that succeed make big money.

The key is to not buy in until production. The fear that you'll miss out on imminent gains is simply at odds with the historical fact of massive losses by those who buy in before production. Sad but true.

Add in the fact that many AIM companies have poor management and unfortunately you get huge losses.

But those historic losses do not imply the future will be gloomy. If you pick a winner the gains are enormous, that's why we're all here.

I've learned painful lessons in the space which is why I only bought in here recently at 9p.

I'm buying more