What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on where to set the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the TRY.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 18 2021 +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34208;t=2021-3-18%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S10
December 24 2020 +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=25738;t=2020-12-24%2011:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1
October 22 2020 -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23557;t=2020-10-22%2011:0:00.0;s=EURTRY;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
Benchmark Rate 19
Today's Trade Plan
25 forecasts today. This is broken down here:-
23 forecast for the rate to stay at 19%
1 forecast for a cut to 18.5%
1 forecast for a cut to 17%
Last time there was an unexpected hike in rates, President Erdogan sacked the central bank governor. Today is the first policy announcement from the new governor Sahap Kavcioglu, who's under pressure to cut rates. So far, he has signalled he won't cut yet but let's see!
Realistically the only feasible outcome from today is a possible cut. So if we get a deviation of 1.0 or more, we can expect a continued and prolonged weakening in TRY pairs.
Tradable Pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
We got a positive 0.1 deviation on all four lines of data which caused an excellent spike up in USD pairs, but this was very short-lived and made trading very difficult.
I suspect that this was because, shortly before the trade time, reports revealed that the Johnson and Johnson vaccine was potentially causing blood clots. An impromptu press conference was scheduled 30 minutes after the US CPI release time. Therefore the market ignored the positive CPI data in anticipation of the press conference.
The vaccines are essential to US recovery; any news that calls any interruption to that program into questions will overshadow backwards-looking data. For me, I had a minor loss, as I took a trade regardless. Maybe if we got a 0.2 deviation, that would have been enough to create a sustained move. It shows the importance of being aware of what else is happening in the market. Please pay attention to any event that could shift the focus away from the data we are trading.
Losses will always happen; luckily, only a slight loss and my overall position on the year is still in profit.
James Thatcher
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38254;t=2021-4-13%2012:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=S2
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
April 7 2021 Minimal deviations didn't create the move we would need to be safe.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 31 2021 Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35420;t=2021-3-31%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -3000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000
Today's Trade Plan
If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.
Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -2889
2) API Actual Crude = -3600
3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = 0786
4) API Actual Gasoline = +5600
Tradable Pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
Headline CPI - Core (M/M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 10 2021 We got a +0.1 on both core lines gave a nice 15 pip move on USDJPY ; that's a really nice move for such a small deviation, shows how hot this data is becoming.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33216;t=2021-3-10%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
February 10 2021 Check out last months 0.2 deviations, and bear in mind that I expect the same deviations to create a better reaction today!
We can see a small but gradual move over the first one minute.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28287;t=2021-2-10%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
November 12 2020 Most of last year, the same deviations were not moving the market, as conditions were very different then, but I believe the focus is back.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=24281;t=2020-11-12%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 1.5
CPI (M/M) 0.5
CPI (Y/Y) 2.5
Today's Trade Plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
I’m looking for a Deviation of 0.2% or greater in either direction from the forecast of 0.2% to take a trade.
So, an actual figure of 0.0% to Sell USD or 0.4% to Buy USD.
We would need to confirm no conflict on any of the other three lines!
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
Tradable Pairs
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Today we got massive deviations across the three important data lines, Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment all in the same direction, which gave us a nice move and the opportunity to bank a little profit!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=38168;t=2021-4-9%2012:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=S30
See the video at : https://youtu.be/eu-iMvW33q4
What does the data mean to the market?
The total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Cadanidan dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the unemployment rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher unemployment rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. We need both to deviate in the same direction to create a trade. Today, it's nice to have one of these rare occurrences that don't come out with the highly anticipated NFP report. This data is Hot data, and we could get some pip's again today.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 12 2021 We saw a healthy + 184k positive deviation on the headline data Employment Change. With a positive 1% change in the Unemployment rate, which created a trade for me, I took on EURCAD to avoid any conflict from US data that came out simultaneously. I banked a few pips.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33563;t=2021-3-12%2013:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1
February 5 2021 We had NFP simultaneously; however, big devs worked slowly on EURCAD and USDCAD. We couldn't trade this simultaneously as NFP as NFP is likely to overshadow this report.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28017;t=2021-2-5%2013:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1
October 9 2020 We also had the same setup as of today and March, where this report doesn't come out with NFP; however, the forecast range was much broader. We still saw a good move on CAD pairs, although this was all over in the first minute.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=23196;t=2020-10-9%2012:30:00.0;s=EURCAD;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
Empl Chg - Full Time 0
Employment Change 100
Unemployment Rate 8.0
Today's Trade Plan
We have to look at the three main lines.
Employment Change = Shows how many jobs were gained or added in the last month.
Full Time= How many of those jobs were Full time because they have less value to the economy if they are part-time.
Unemployment = More Unemployment is bad, and less is good.
If we get a deviation from Employment change of around +75 (This is the key line of data)
Add to that a +20 Full Time
And 0.2+- from Unemployment
Then we should see some great moves.
Tradable Pairs
EURCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose
We didn't see much of a deviation on this report. Oil price bounced up and backed down before finding a bearish direction for the rest of the trading session. This data did not shock the market, and I didn't take a trade. Unlike most of the data I trade, Crude Oil Inventories are weekly, so not long to wait until I get another shot at making some pips here.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=36450;t=2021-4-7%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=S10
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 31 2021 Not much of a deviation on this, but it seems Gasoline won the day!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=35420;t=2021-3-31%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 24 2021 Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34654;t=2021-3-24%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 17 2021 Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34164;t=2021-3-17%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0
Today's Trade Plan
If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude OIl or Brent.
Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = -1416
2) API Actual Crude = -2618
3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2465
4) API Actual Gasoline = +4553
Tradeable Pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Today gave a massive +266 deviation on the headline, and we saw the USDJPY give a good spike up. However, it retraced hard, as we saw a conflict from Average Earnings of -0.2. So the US economy added many more jobs, but those jobs paid less, which is not good for inflation. In my initial plan, I highlighted a conflict of this nature can create a dangerous trading environment, which played out perfectly today. I did the right thing by standing by and not placing any trades. I made no profit from this today, but my capital is intact, ready for next month.
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the USD and would create a buy on USDJPY. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the USD and would generate a sell on USDJPY. NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings. The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and would create a buy on USDJPY. A higher number would be bad and create a sell. I am looking for these two numbers not to conflict with the headline NFP number. Average Earnings a higher number is good a lower number is bad, again this must be onside and not conflict with the headline NFP.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDPYJ! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33099;t=2021 3-5%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
February 5 2021 - 56k negative deviation on headline number but conflicting Unemployment and Average Earnings, However, USDJPY went in the direction of the headline number on this occasion. It wasn't a trade for me!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=28009;t=2021 2-5%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
January 8 2021 -211 negative deviation on the headline, with a big conflict from Average Earnings. The conflict was extreme, causing USDJPY to go the wrong way. This proves the power of a significant conflict! It wasn't a trade for me, thankfully.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=26090;t=2021 1-8%2013:30:00.0;s=USDJPY;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.1
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 650
Unemployment Rate 6
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 4.5
Today's Trade Plan
Today If we see a 150k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradeable Pairs
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you sho
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply which then affects the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price. There is other oil data released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradeable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic Deviations and Their Outcome
March 24 2021 - Not much of a deviation, but Gasoline seems to have driven price action, and maybe API wasn't considered so much by the market this time?
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34656;t=2021-03-24%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 17 2021 - Mildly positive overall from both lines, and OIL went down in a bumpy way. So as expected!
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=34164;t=2021-03-17%2014:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
March 10 2021 - This is an excellent example of why I wouldn't trade when gasoline conflicts with oil.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=33711;t=2021-03-10%2015:30:00.0;s=USDOIL;r=M1
My Forecasts For Today
DOE Crude Oil Inventories - 2000.00
DOE Gasoline Inventories - -3000.00
Today's Trade Plan
If we get +-4000 from OIL and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from OIl or Brent.
Note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following.
1) Official DOE Crude Forecast = +0107
2) API Actual Crude = +3900
3) Official DOE Gasoline Forecast = +0730
4) API Actual Gasoline = -6000
Tradeable Pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!
Good luck!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.