The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
02nd November 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
03rd November 2021 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
04th November 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th November 2021 13:30 GMT Czeck CNB Repo Rate
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
04th November 2021 12:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +2318
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2235 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +0530
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment
What does the data mean to the market?
Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.25
Today's trade plan
All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.
The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43386/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzMzg2O3Q9MjAyMS0wNC0yOCUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28145/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4MTQ1O3Q9MjAyMS0wMS0yNyUyMDA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/20676/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIwNjc2O3Q9MjAyMC0wNy0yOSUyMDE6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUFVRFVTRDtyPVMxMA
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.5
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI (Q/Q) 0.8
CPI (Y/Y) 3.1
Today's trade plan
If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.
Tradable pairs
AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial
The Week Ahead 25th October 2021
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
27th October 2021 01:30 GMT Australian CPI
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5
27th October 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=CA;nn=BoC%20Interest%20Rate%20Decision
27th October 2021 15:3 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
Another shock to the markets today was when the highly anticipated cut to the Turkish interest didn't happen; the markets quickly revalued the Turkish Lira's value. We saw a whopping 2000 pips in a few seconds: what a lovely move, a great trade.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=65055;t=2021-10-21%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1
See the video at : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u0RuBKpydfk
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/41703/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQxNzAzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIzJTIwMTA6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRFJVQjtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
Central Bank Key Rate 7.0
Today's trade plan
Theres varying estimates on forcast but the mostly weighted to a change to tha rate today of 7.00% a hike from the previous 6.75%
I'll take a buy on a +0.5 deviation from forcast so if they hike more than expected I will buy the RUB (Selling the USDRUB)
I will take a sell on a -0.25 deviation from forcast so if they do not change the rate and it remains at 6.75% i will sell the RUB (Buying the USDRUB)
Tradable pairs
USDRUB
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.
Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMTg4O3Q9MjAyMS05LTIzJTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9RVVSVFJZO3I9TTE
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 17.00
Today's trade plan
With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan dismissing three of the monetary policymakers at Turkeys Central Bank, it is strongly believed this was a deliberate move to ensure another rate cut today to boost credits and exports. Although such interference is widely frowned upon, I'm interested in how much they will cut by how the market will react as the Lira is already at an all-time low.
We have varying estimates for a cut today between 17.0% and 17.5%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on 1.0 on either side of this.
If it remains at 18%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 16%, I'll take a sell.
If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDTRY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of futu
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > 0
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -3500
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +3300
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -950 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = -3500
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives,
What does the data mean to the market?
The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28912/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTEyO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1NMQ
January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26395/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mzk1O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIwJTIwNzowOjAwLjA7cz1HQlBVU0Q7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.0
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.2
Today's trade plan
If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.
Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPNZD
GBPUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60133/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMTMzO3Q9MjAyMS03LTI3JTIwMTI6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNESFVGO3I9UzI
July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 1.8
Today's trade plan
Today we have the following forecast ranges.
High Forecast = 1.95
Low Forecast = 1.65
Official Estimate = 1.8
Average = 1.81
Previous intetest rate = 1.65
Looking to take a trade 0.1% deviation from the official forecast so 1.7 to sell and 1.9 to buy
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
The Week Ahead 18th October 2021
In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
19th October 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here,
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
20th October 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here, https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
21st October 2021 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
See the report history here, https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwQm9ycm93aW5nJTIwUmF0ZQ
What does the data mean to the market?
Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.
I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM)
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 17 2021 Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28931/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4OTMxO3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
January 15 2021 Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTE1JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Retail Sales - Ex-Autos (M/M) 0.50
Today's trade plan
I'll take a trade if we see a 2.0% from the Core Retail Sales M/M figure with no conflicts from any of the other lines.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1250
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -4600
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1100 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +5200
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = 1250 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = -4600
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experi
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS04LTExJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4
CPI (M/M) 0.3
CPI (Y/Y) 5.3
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding t
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
13th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5
14th October 2021 08:30 GMT SWEDISH CPI MM
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9U0U7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5
14th October 2021 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
15th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales m/m
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49UmV0YWlsJTIwU2FsZXMlMjAlMjhNb00lMjk
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62454/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNDU0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTMlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS04LTYlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 500
Unemployment Rate 5.1
Today's trade plan
This report is nicely in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.
Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction. Anything between those figures, I would expect to have a poor reaction as we want the markets to be sure which way this will affect the Fed's decision over monetary policy.
I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.
This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for t
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63432/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS05LTIyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/63064/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS05LTE1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil
DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +4700
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -500
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
Forecasts and API..
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +1000
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +400 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experi
What does the data mean to the market?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61643/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNjQzO3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMjowOjAwLjA7cz1OWkRVU0Q7cj1TMQ
November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/12303/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTEyMzAzO3Q9MjAxOS0xMS0xMyUyMDE6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/9174/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTkxNzQ7dD0yMDE5LTgtNyUyMDI6MDowMC4wO3M9TlpEVVNEO3I9UzEw
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate 0.50
Today's trade plan
Today The Markets are expecting a minimum of a 0.25 basis point (BPS) hike.
So an actual outcome of a 0.50% interest rate
One economist is predicting no change, so rates will remain at 0.25%
If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.25% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.
If we see a change to the interest rates to 0.75% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.
Tradable pairs
AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDCHF
NZDJPY
NZDUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
06th October 2021 15:30GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
08th October 2021 13:30GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz