If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
Today we saw the CNB hike the Repo Rate higher than all the economists predicted. They hiked the rates by 0.75 basis points, the highest rate hike since 1997. Giving us a great sell opportunity on USDCZK with a nice staggered move down 140 pips over the next 90 seconds. An excellent trade
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=64284;t=2021-9-30%2012:30:00.0;s=USDCZK;r=S1
See the video at : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BY00KdZSrqs
What does the data mean to the market?
In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from forecast which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have given plenty of opportunities to enter.
Check out the price action here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTItNiUyMDEyOjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENaSztyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
CNB Repo Rate 1.25
Today's trade plan
Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 1.25%, which is a 0.50% hike to the rate. All economists are unanimous of this outcome, but I'll be ready to trade if the actual result is not as predicted.
Take a trade if we see a 0.25% deviation from the 1.25% forecast to take a buy or sell.
Tradable pairs
EURCZK
USDCZK
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ
September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +500
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2150 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = +4100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1500 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3600
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
29th September 2021 15:30 GMT Us Crude Oil Inventories
Check out the history and charts of the report.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
30th September 2021 13:30 GMT Czech CNB Repo Rate
Check out the history and charts of the report.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
30th September 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate
Check out the history and charts of the report.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Yesterday we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.
With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.
Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
Happy Friday, Everyone :-)
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=63188;t=2021-9-23%2011:0:00.0;s=USDTRY;r=S1
See the video at : https://youtu.be/yQa3n-Hh0ZY
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 3.5
Today's trade plan
If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34208/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MjA4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMTE6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEVFJZO3I9UzEw
December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/25738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI1NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0xMi0yNCUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
October 22 2020 Today we saw a -1.75 negative deviation from the forecast, which created a great move! With over 900 pips in the first minute.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/23557/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTIzNTU3O3Q9MjAyMC0xMC0yMiUyMDExOjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUlRSWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Benchmark Rate 19
Today's trade plan
22 out of 23 economists forecast today for the rate to stay at 19%
1 Says it'll move to 18.5%. It'll be a shock if its anything less than 19%
If we get a change of 0.5 in either direction, I'll take a trade.
Tradable pairs
EURTRY
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62215/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyMjE1O3Q9MjAyMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61866/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODY2O3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4500
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2450 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -6100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1472 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -0400
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of ex
In the week ahead I'll be looking closely at the following releases
22nd Sept 2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
23rd Sept 2021 12:00 Turkish Interest Rate
See the report history here: -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwTGVuZGluZyUyMFJhdGU
23rd Sept 2021 14:00 South African Interest Rate
See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil but with a conflict from gasoline, still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62687/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS05LTElMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
August 25 2021 Very minimal negative deviation with support from Gasoline wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, the deviation wasn't sizeable for me to take a trade.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/62215/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyMjE1O3Q9MjAyMS04LTI1JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61866/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODY2O3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2900
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -3574 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5400
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2900 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of ex
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=61681;t=2021-08-18%2012:30:00.0;s=USDCAD;r=M1
July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60617/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjE3O3Q9MjAyMS03LTI4JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58901/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4OTAxO3Q9MjAyMS02LTE2JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.1
CPI (Y/Y) 3.9
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.7
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 3.1
Today's trade plan
Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.
Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.
**IMPORTANT** On this trade we hope and expect to see a slow move that happens over the first 25-45 seconds. When data hits, the market shouldn't move more than 5 pips giving you a chance to jump in. I would suggest that you would want to have your trade live within the first 5 seconds and ride the move for the next 20 seconds or so. Once you're a few pips in profit, set your stop loss to break even, to protect your equity. If things go to plan, then I would hope for around 20 pips on USDCAD in total before the move stalls.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk,
What does the data mean to the market?
The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.
CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61424/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxNDI0O3Q9MjAyMS04LTExJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1
July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59634/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5NjM0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTEzJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4MDIwO3Q9MjAyMS02LTEwJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
CPI - Core (M/M) 0.3
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.2
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 5.3
Today's trade plan
The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.
Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.3% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.
I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!
Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y
If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.
With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.3%
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to
What does the data mean to the market?
Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw
March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33563/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzNTYzO3Q9MjAyMS0zLTEyJTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRENBRDtyPVMzMA
I will use forecasts of:
Empl Chg - Full Time 0
Employment Change 66.8
Unemployment Rate 7.3
Today's trade plan
It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.
If we see a negative deviation of 60k or a positive deviation of 80k in from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction on CAD pairs.
I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases: -
10th September 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change
See the report history and previous charts here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/38168/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM4MTY4O3Q9MjAyMS00LTklMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNEQ0FEO3I9UzMw
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60777/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNzc3O3Q9MjAyMS04LTYlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw
July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave a good spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a heavy retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/59294/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU5Mjk0O3Q9MjAyMS03LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move-in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 725
Unemployment Rate 5.2
Today's trade plan
This is HO, and holds the key to when the tapering will begin! I'll be looking for a 75k deviation in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, We can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDDOW
USDJPY
XAUUSD
Hope this helps but please do your own a
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases
01/09/2021 15:30:00 USDOIL Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw
03/09/2021 13:30:00 USDJPY Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 18 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and therefore, it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/61866/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYxODY2O3Q9MjAyMS04LTE4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories; however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60939/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwOTM5O3Q9MjAyMS04LTQlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60620/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjIwO3Q9MjAyMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be
In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.
24th August 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest%20Rate%20Decision
25th August 2021 15:30 GMT USA Cruse Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude%20Oil%20Inventories
I'm researching a load of new opportunities, so watch this space for more trade plans as they come to light!!
What does the data mean to the market?
The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 18 2020 7th May 2020
A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27848/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3ODQ4O3Q9MjAyMC02LTE4JTIwODowOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJOT0s7cj1TMQ
March 19 2020 20th March 2020
A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/27738/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI3NzM4O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0yMCUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTMtMTklMjA5OjA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE5PSztyPVMx
March 19 2020 13th March 2020
An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy, is the first cut to interest rates since 2016
The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.
Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020 which I'm glad to say is now behind us and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/16296/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2Mjk2O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xMyUyMDA3OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0ROT0s7cj1NMQ..
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTMtMTklMjA5OjA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUk5PSztyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 0
NO rates average 0
NO rates forecast Q1 0
NO rates forecast Q10 0
NO rates forecast Q11 0
NO rates forecast Q12 0
NO rates forecast Q2 0
NO rates forecast Q3 0
NO rates forecast Q4 0
NO rates forecast Q5 0
NO rates forecast Q6 0
NO rates forecast Q7 0
NO rates forecast Q8 0
NO rates forecast Q9 0
Today's trade plan
I will set
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
August 4 2021 Very strong positive deviation. Unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted and it wasn't a trade for me, it was good to see a 45 pip reaction in favour of the Crude oil inventories however, this is not a risk I could justify taking.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60939/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwOTM5O3Q9MjAyMS04LTQlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9UzE
July 28 2021 Minimal deviations from both Oil and Gasoline, however nice to see a slow and sustained both in the direction of the news. It wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60620/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwNjIwO3Q9MjAyMS03LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
July 14 2021 I didn't set up for this event as other news factors pushed the oil prices down, It wouldn't have triggered regardless, and there was a conflict on Gasoline. The news did not move the price on this occasion.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/60003/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYwMDAzO3Q9MjAyMS03LTE0JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPVMx
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1450
DOE Gasoline Inventories -200
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and t