The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
Please note a correction to my posted figures; Gasoline forecast is +2000 as the actual from API was +2900. Another reminder of why it's essential to do your analysis too.
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 9 2021 Today, we saw a conflict from gasoline. Although we saw a good 30 pip move in the direction of crude Oil initially after the news, this quickly pulled back to pre news price before carrying on with the daily downtrend it was in before the release.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/58285/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU4Mjg1O3Q9MjAyMS02LTklMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE
June 3 2021 On this occasion, we saw a - 2600 deviation to the downside. It was close to but fell short of a trigger. It was good to see the market react well in the first few minutes after the release; however, it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/55776/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTU1Nzc2O3Q9MjAyMS02LTMlMjAxNTowOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -6000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 5000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2500 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -8500
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614 (RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2900
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before dec
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/41172/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQxMTcyO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPU0x
March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34157/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTU3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE3JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA
February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29267/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI5MjY3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4
Today's trade plan
Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.
Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.
A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 21 2021 Small but conflicting deviations didn't create any significant move, so no trade for me.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/41172/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQxMTcyO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIxJTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPU0x
March 17 2021 Small deviations managed to create small moves, nothing exciting, though, and the retraces were swift and dangerous.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34157/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTU3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE3JTIwMTI6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA
February 17 2021 Small deviations again created a feeble move.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29267/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI5MjY3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE3JTIwMTM6MzA6MDAuMDtzPUVVUkNBRDtyPVMzMA
I will use forecasts of:
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.5
CPI Core - Common (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI Core - Median (Y/Y) 2.4
CPI Core - Trim (Y/Y) 2.4
Today's trade plan
Canadian CPI data is slowly moving more into focus as we approach the July tapering of assets purchases. I hope that now is the right time to see some nice moves when a reasonable deviation should occur.
Therefore today, I will need an unlikely 0.4 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction as the headline from the other four lines of data that come out at the same time.
Without the comprehensive deviations on all lines, we may not find any continuation to bring us safety and profit.
Tradable pairs
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I was hopeful for US CPI, but it didn't come near my trigger, and the reaction was volatile and unsafe to trade. We didn't see a deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories either. A pretty dull month so far, but no losses taken, which remains the most important goal to achieve.
This week there are a few trades. I'll be putting my money on the following list.
15/06/2021 13:30 US Core Retail Sales m/m
16/06/2021 13:30 Canadian Core CPI m/m
16/06/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
17/06/2021 02:30 Australian Employment Change
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast range is far smaller than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.
Tradable pairs
EURUSD
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with
What does the data mean to the market?
The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buy on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.
NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.
With UR a lower number is good for the US and vice versa. Whereas AE a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.
All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 7 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -734k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with a supporting +0.3% rise from the Unemployment Rate, and This crushed the US dollar across the board. I managed to bank some excellent profits early on the back of this data as the USD pairs continued to slide south. It was a shame that the Average Earnings conflicted largely. A conflict of +0.7 on this line would have upset the move in standard times, but not today!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50023/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMDIzO3Q9MjAyMS01LTclMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
April 2 2021 A very large deviation to the upside, but accompanied by conflicting Average Earnings, created a whipsaw that we don't like to see. This, therefore, did not hit our triggers and for good reason!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35213/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MjEzO3Q9MjAyMS00LTIlMjAxMjozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9TTE
March 5 2021 +197k positive deviation with no conflicts. The move was great on USDJPY! I don't trade stocks, but for those that do, look how they reacted, which was the opposite of the USD value. Better employment numbers suggest a tightening of monetary policy, which is not good for the stock market!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33099/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDk5O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTUlMjAxMzozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzEw
I will use forecasts of:
Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.2
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 664
Unemployment Rate 5.9
Today's trade plan
Today the forecast range is far smaller than last month, so we must be aware of that. If we see 300k deviations in either direction from Non-Farm Payrolls without any conflicts from Unemployment and no significant conflict from Average Earnings, we can expect an excellent move. This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This o
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2533 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5360
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1479 (RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2510
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not ind
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -4000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 4000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2533 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = -5360
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1479 (RT)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2510
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not ind
What does the data mean to the market?
ADP is a private company that analysis the employment data from 23 Million working adults. It's a precursor to the highly anticipated US Non-Farm Payrolls which comes out the following Friday.
A higher than expected number (more working adults) is good for the US Economy and would create a buy on USD pair, and vice versa a lower than expected number would create a sell in USD pairs.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 5 2021 Small -58 deviation only created a 5 pip move on USDJPY, this deviation is too small considering the forecast range.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49915/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTE1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxMjoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU
March 31 2021 Only -33 deviation created an 8 pip move, not a strong enough deviation.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/35147/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM1MTQ3O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMxJTIwMTI6MTU6MDAuMDtzPVVTREpQWTtyPVM1
March 3 2021 10 pip move from this -60 deviation. The move didn't last long!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/33020/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTMzMDIwO3Q9MjAyMS0zLTMlMjAxMzoxNTowMC4wO3M9VVNESlBZO3I9UzU
I will use forecasts of:
ADP Employment Change 650
Today's trade plan
If we see a 300+- deviation from the forecast today, then we can hope for a sustained move that we may be able to get some pips from. This deviation will cover all forecasts in the range, so it will be a significant surprise, although unlikely to occur.
Tradable pairs
USDJPY
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit, I also skipped New Zealand Interest rate, as no economist predicted a change, I decided it wasn't worth getting out of bed in the middle of the night. No change to the Hungarian rate and no deviation on the weekly DOE crude oil inventories. Pretty dull but trading capital intact.
This week a few more trades are going on. I'll be putting my money on the following list.
01/06/2021 15:00:00 USA ISM Manufacturing PMI
See the history here.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ISM%20Manufacturing%20PMI
03/06/2021 13:15:00 USA ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
See the history here.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=ADP%20Nonfarm%20Employment%20Change
03/06/2021 16:00:00 USA Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude%20Oil%20Inventories
04/06/2021 13:30:00 USA Non-Farm Employment Change
See the history here.
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Nonfarm%20Payrolls
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 19 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me, and the move was poor.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/51750/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUxNzUwO3Q9MjAyMS01LTE5JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories -750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1200
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1050
2) API Actual Crude = -439
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0614
4) API Actual Gasoline = -1986
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of futu
What does the data mean to the market?
The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.
Historic deviations and their outcome
June 29 2020 We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!
See the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/19603/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE5NjAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wNi0yMztyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
Base Rate Announcement 0.6
Today's trade plan
Economists expect a series of rate hikes throughout the rest of 2021, with the first increase of 0.15bps to the interest rate expected to happen in June, followed by 25bps hikes in September and December.
Today If we see that expected series of increases brought forward, I will take a sell on USDHUF, so I am looking for a +0.15bps increase or more to sell USDHUF (Meaning I'm buying the HUF) and expect some continued HUF Strengthening.
Tradable pairs
EURHUF
USDHUF
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
There's nothing much to report from last week. No trades hit. I did have a slight amendment to my planned trades, setting up an additional Aussie trade, Wage price index. (WPI) which I've been watching for a while and have seen some reactions recently. I always trade on the conservative side, and the deviation I expected was very unlikely to hit; however, it was worth setting up for and watching. I decided against setting up for the German PMI's. This was once a great report that used to react brilliantly, but after further analysis, I decided the recent results were too inconsistent. I couldn't say for sure that the outcome was predictable. On this occasion, it did work well. Hindsight is a wonderful thing. It's easy to look back and say I wish I had traded that; however, this is how I have saved myself from many losses in the past. It's better to miss a trade that worked than take a risk and lose. You need to be confident of the outcome if you're going to risk your hard-earned cash. Choose your trades carefully.
This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -
25/05/2021 13:00 Hungarian Interest Rate
See the history here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=HU;nn=Interest%20Rate%20Decision
26/05/2021 03:00 New Zealand Official Cash Rate
See the history here: https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=NZ;nn=RBNZ%20Interest%20Rate%20Decision
26/05/2021 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
See the history here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/calendar;nbc=US;nn=Crude%20Oil%20Inventories
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Please feel free to ask questions.
Good luck this week.
James Thatcher
What does the data mean to the market?
Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.
March 19 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move
It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 minutes past the hour.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTEtMjElMjAxMzowOjAwLjA7cz1aQVJKUFk7cj1TMQ
I will use forecasts of:
Interest Rate Decision 3.5
Today's trade plan
If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock. I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.
Tradable pairs
USDZAR
I hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
What does the data mean to the market?
There are two main lines of data on this release.
Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.
Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.
Historic deviations and their outcome
March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/34188/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTM0MTg4O3Q9MjAyMS0zLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9R0JQQVVEO3I9UzU
February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/28577/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI4NTc3O3Q9MjAyMS0yLTE4JTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE
January 21 2021 No deviations on this release, and as you can see from the charts, the market didn’t move!
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/26434/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTI2NDM0O3Q9MjAyMS0xLTIxJTIwMDozMDowMC4wO3M9QVVETlpEO3I9TTE
I will use forecasts of:
Employment Change 20
Unemployment Rate 5.6
Today's trade plan
The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate, this is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).
If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.
If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.
Tradable pairs
AUDUSD
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Yo
What does the data mean to the market?
The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and indicates increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. A Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.
Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's report, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.
There are two mainline of data to focus on. DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories, the two lines must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.
Historic deviations and their outcome
May 12 2021 A small deviation which was also overshadowed by a cybersecurity attack on one of the US east coast's main oil pipeline which halted production. I sat on the sideline for this one and pleased I did.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50404/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwNDA0O3Q9MjAyMS01LTEyJTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
May 5 2021 Today the data came in inline with API. Luckily I use my hybrid forecasts, which incorporates Wednesday evening's API report. If I ignored API, this would have triggered a trade, and I would have taken a loss. This is a good reminder of why the API data is relevant. We saw some very volatile price action before the news was ignored, and price action returned to the downside trend it was in before the report.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/49925/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQ5OTI1O3Q9MjAyMS01LTUlMjAxNDozMDowMC4wO3M9VVNET0lMO3I9TTE
April 28 2021 Minimal deviation from forecast with no conflict from Gasoline, It was a no-trade for me; however, I saw a healthy 30 pip move in the direction of the news. Oil was already in an upwards trend which continued pre and post news.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/43410/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTQzNDEwO3Q9MjAyMS00LTI4JTIwMTQ6MzA6MDAuMDtzPVVTRE9JTDtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000
Today's trade plan
If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and no conflicts from Gasoline, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.
Please note that I have used hybrid forecasts to accommodate the following: -
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1623
2) API Actual Crude = +620
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0886
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800
Tradable pairs
USDBNT
USDOIL
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
What does the data mean to the market?
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses, and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected number should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected number should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
Historic deviations and their outcome
February 24 2021 A nice +0.3 deviation created a prolonged and significant move in AUD price action.
Check out the price action here:
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/29714/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTI5NzE0O3Q9MjAyMS0wMi0yNDtyPU0x
I will use forecasts of:
WPI (Q/Q) 0.5
WPI (Y/Y) 1.4
Today's trade plan
The Wage Price Index measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labour, excluding bonuses. It is a leading indicator of consumer price inflation.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the AUD.
I am looking for a 0.3 deviation in either direction from the forecast. If this happens we would expect to see a slow and tradeable move on EURAUD.
Tradable pairs
EURAUD
Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
No trade for me on this data as Mexico's central bank voted unanimously to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4%. It was in line with expectation, however, should a surprise change occur, this kind of report would create a tremendous move, and I would be laughing all the way to the bank.
See Chart here:
https://calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com/#/chart;i=50924;t=2021-5-13%2019:0:00.0;s=USDMXN;r=S1
Last week I only set up for two trades. Initially, I planned to trade three reports. The incident in the US where a cyber-attack brought the flow of one of the east coasts main oil pipelines to a grinding halt resulted in the weekly DOE Crude Oil Inventories report that I typically trade too risky. So I wisely sat on the sideline this week. Nevertheless, it was still a good week for me to see US CPI data come out with a massive +0.6 deviation, this gave me some nine minutes of perfect price action, and I banked at least 30 pips across all my accounts.
See the price action here. : -https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/50136/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTUwMTM2O3Q9MjAyMS0wNS0xMiUyMDEyOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RKUFk7cj1NMQ
Now I start week three with two big wins under my belt, putting me in an excellent position to increase my risk appetite even further. If the markets give me just one surprise, it's all I need.
Remember to choose your trades carefully. Don't take a risk unless you are sure the outcome will be successful. Most importantly, be patient and hold your nerve. It can be frustrating when you don't see any trades, but it is better to wait and see a few successful trades instead of a load of trades where most of the outcomes result in your hard-earned cash go down the drain.
This week I will pick just three trades to put my money on. Here's the list of which ones: -
19/05/2021 15:30:00 US Crude Oil Inventories
20/05/2021 02:30:00 AUD Employment Change
21/05/2021 08:30:00 EUR German Flash Man PMI
I'm looking for new information in real-time. As the markets change, so will my planned trades. If you don't see a trading plan posted before the trade, I'll let you know why I decided not to trade it, vice versa; if new opportunities come up, I'll post my plan as far in advance as possible, so keep watching this space for updates. I work in real-time so do my plans.
Good Luck this week.
James Thatcher