Member Info for JamesOxford

@Dazpink Agreed. Apollo are indeed on the short and qualified list of probables (as opposed to the list of possibles). We only need two bidders - Sidara and one other - to drive the share price to a reasonable amount. Sidara will be aware of this, so will want to move very quickly once the audited accounts are known. Not long to wait now.

@katstranger ''protect your sauces'? lunchtime must be murder...'

Yes indeed - I was keeping the 'sauce' theme going which @Graff started! Lol

Most of us who are well connected in senior management have (and protect) our sauces. There is of course lots of talk in the street and in the rumour mill at the moment with regards to Wood, its suitors, and its future. It is difficuilt to see how this will land in the end...but almost all bets are on a sale to the highest bidder, in due course.

@Targa123 I take from your short post (which has zero substance or insight) that you think Wood’s audited account will be very bad with very serious writedowns…? In which case Sidara will likely offer 20-25p? Is that right?

@Pokerchips Agreed.

I do think Sidara will offer the minimum 35p plus cash injection.

Word on the street is that the audited accounts are not as bad as first expected. Therefore, the noise in the FT was designed to make shareholders think that 35p is an acceptable offer due to the FCA investigation (and the unknown outcomes around that) in order to lower its offer to below 35p.

Personally, I think Sidara will weigh all options and stick to the 35p plus cash injection to keep Wood's BOD, Wood's institutional investors and Wood's lenders on side.

Time will tell if once the audited accounts are known, how quickly Sidara make their offer and whether or not the offer will be low enough to draw out another bidder like Apollo (who will want to own Wood in its entirety also.). Of course two bidder ought to drive the offer up to 45p and maybe settle at 60p. This will depend on Wood's audited accounts, and how keen Sidara and the other bidder are to aquire Wood.

With only Sidara at the table and no other bidder, it is likely to remain at 35p, and if rejected by institional investors, then an increase may be made to 45p.

Although very unlikely, Sidara want to play hardball and make their offer non-negotable. For example, along the lines of 'Sidara makes a first and final offer of 35p per share plus $450M cash injection. If this offer is not recommended by Wood's BOD and then subsequently accepted by Wood's shareholders by X date, then Sidara will withdraw its offer with immediate affect on X date'. This would force a quick result, but would also act to box Sidara into their own self-imposed corner...a dangerous game to play. This is Wood so anything can happen!

My prediction remains the same: Audited accounts known mid-late August, followed within days by Sidara's formal offer. Negotiations to conclude for better or worse by the end of September. The fat lady will soon be warming up her vocal cords!

GLA

@GRaff I will quite happily sell all of my Wood shares to you for £1 per share!

I have called out how ridiculous your posts are in relation to your requests (desperado) and that you should stop trying to solicit other posters here and asking them to contact investment companies to buy Wood! You really do have rocks for brains! This is a discussion forum on Wood, nothing more nothing less. So quit dreaming and jog on.!

@GRaff Someone here has already contacted Sir Ian Wood to see if he would be interested in buying it. However, he said he was too busy playing golf and was in fact retired… Besides that he said do you think I have rocks in my head?!

Not only that, but I think if anyone here with the names like FroggleBoggles, Carrot or IceCool contacted investment companies with top tips of what to buy (ie Wood) they would be laughed out of the office and security would be called!

@Jollypaadleboard Like a jealous lover - Apollo are well aware of Wood, and Wood-Sidara situationship.

@Kandos I would say debt to equity swap will not be on the cards at all in any way shape or form. I never said a capital raise would be for $450M. Under this scenario Wood would have to sell significantly more assets (not only limited to 'non-core' assets) with the balance made up under a capital raise with such an offer extended to institutional investors only. I should have pointed this out I suppose when I posted. I have no doubts whatsoever that Wood has already earmarked significant potential disposals and communicated such to the majority of their lenders should Sidara's offer be rejected by Woods' BOD or Wood's institutional investors, or should Sidara decide to walk (unlikley though that is!). Anyway, in my opinion this is a far more likely/viable option than a debt to equity swap, and one that would appease the banks within a reasonable timeframe.

As mentioned the sale to Sidara is the most probable outcome. This is clear in all of Wood's RNS statements to date...so I would bet your house on it. Lol

@Kando "implement an alternative refinancing option, should it be required." That would optimistically be a Rights Issue, but far more likely a Debt for Equity swap.

I would disagree that the more likely is a debt for equity swap.

Lenders do not typically like debt for equity swaps. They are in the business of lending, not exchanging debt for ownship of companies and all the operational and other issues that entails. Wood has far too many problems for lenders to want to carry out a debt for equity swap. Lenders need companies to be rock solid in order for this to occur. Wood's financial footing is far from secure. The future prospects are strong, however, Wood is somewhat of a broken ship, which requires signifcant repair. It is simply not worth the risk for lenders to undertake a debt to equity swap.

Far more likely is a capital raise via a rights issue at a price lower than the current 18p, probably around 12-14p to ensure the capital raise via rights issue is taken up. I doubt that private shareholders will be invited to participate, it will more likley be available to institutional investors only in order to secure a fast and successful outcome, which it will be under attractive terms of 12-14p to the institutional investors. This capital raise will likely be oversubscribed and will immediately appease Wood's lenders, and Wood can go it alone from there. Of course private investors will be heavily dilluted, but over time, Wood ought to emerge from the muddy bog it has created for itself and flourish over the next 2-5 years.

Of course, Wood has made it clear to all and sundry that it is for sale...

Therefore, far more likely still is the sale of Wood to Sidara under the terms already known i.e. 35p and capital injection of $450M. Sidara may revise the offer to 40p-45p on a second round of negotiation if the first offer is voted down by Wood's institutional investors.

The main point of interest will be whether or not Sidara can make the offer and have it accepted immediately after the audited accounts are published, and while in suspension, and before another bidder such as Apollo enters the ball park. Appollo likes to invest in undervalued companies with clear prospects, and Wood fits that bill perfectly.

GLA

Wood's RNS last week announced it had sold a non-core asset for $150M - no one expected that. This means Wood now has real options.

As expected Wood and Sidara have extended and both remain firmly at the table...however, Wood's RNS today confirmed it has alternative options. Due to the FT article that Sidara may offer less than 35p due to the FCA investigation and unknowns around that investigation/outcome; reading between the lines, Wood has fired a warning shot to Sidara that if the offer is less than 35p Wood has other options. Of course, Sidara needs to buy Wood and Sidara has very deep pocked full of cash, so 35p will be the minimum. If Sidara offers less, then the Wood BOD will reject the offer.

If Sidara want to secure Wood - in the absence of 'bad' audited accounts, they ought to offer the full 35p (regardless of the FCA investigation) to shareholders plus the cash injection. Of course, Wood's institutional investors may very well reject the first offer, so Sidara would have to up it to say 45p to ensure it crosses the line before suspension is lifted and before a rival bidder can enter the ball park.

Of special note was the second RNS - the announcement of Paul as non-executive board member i.e. 'Paul has over 25 years of M&A and business transformation experience'. It seems clearly obvious from this RNS that Wood is for sale. Will it be sold to Sidara or will a last minute buyer like Apollo pick up a bargain?!

Once audited accounts are published in August, let the games commence!

Nwever a dull moment with Wood.

GLA

@Icecool No one predicted the non-core disposal of $150M. Wood's BOD did very well, and kept it hush-hush. As investors, we all want the best result...but you know the old saying 'Don't count your chickens before they hatch'. Never a dull moment with this stock...still lots of Wood's moving parts in play: unknown accounts, unknown FCA investigation, unknown offer/s, extentions and debt waivers, etc.

RNS due before 5pm 28 July. My prediction is one more extention to 29 August (maybe 22 August).

After that, Wood's accounts ought to be published at some point in August. Word on the street is that the Wood accounts may not be as dire as some (myself included) initially thought. Hence, Sidara is now making noises about the FCA investigation in the recent FT article to justify a lower offer of circa 30p.

However, after the publication of Wood's accounts in August (with some writedowns, but not as 'bad' as many financial analysts initially thought), if Sidara want to have their offer taken seriously by Wood's BOD, the first offer ought to be 35p, which the Wood BOD naturally enough may not be 'minded to recommend' due to 'material changes since Sidara's initial expression of interest'.

Word on the street is that Wood has been heavily engaged with Wood's instituional investors; and Wood's institutional investors are more than pleased with Wood's recent disposal, and will not be 'minded to vote in favour of Sidara's 35p 'as it signifanctly undervalues Wood and its future potential'.

Sidara will want to move fast afte rthe publication of accounts and offer while Wood is in suspension. Sidara has deep pockets, so can and should come up with far more in the way of loose change if it wants to buy Wood. Sidara will have to raise its offer to at least 45p and hope to sow enough doubt as to ward off any other would-be suitor/s for Wood...easier siad than done. If another suitor enters the fray (do not rule out Apollo), then the offer ought to jump to 55p-65p minimum.

Sidara has played a good game, but Wood has one or two tricks up its sleeve, as clearly demonstrated by Wood's recent disposal of its non-core asset for a cool $150M cash in the bank in a few months time (and the associated reduction in net debt). This game-changer, combined with Wood's commitment to remain cash-positive ought to be enough to reassure Wood's lenders than Sidara's offer, while a nice back-stop, is not needed should Wood choose to go it alone...especially given Wood's clear and obvious potential over the next few/several years.

This Wood show ain't over till the fat lady sings, and sing she will...when the time is right! Roll on tomorrow, then August, then September...then the fat lady may just make an appearance!

GLA

Been away for a while - very busy.

Read yesterday's FT article that Sidara may offer less fi to the FCA investigation into Wood and with the associated levels of uncertainty.

Wood countered the above with an unexpected RNS today which showed the disposal of a non-core business unit to raise $150 million. This wil act to appease Wood's lenders in terms of cash in the bank and net debt, and improve their confidence in Wood.

Sidara has played a good long game. However, the time to strike (make a sound offer) was about 3-4 weeks back...accounts or no accounts. Of course, Sidara needs to wait for the accounts prior to an offer to prove it's offer is based on sound due diligence, even though Sidara must know all there is to know aboout Wood's business.

Of course, Wood is not out of the woods (pardon the pun) yet. However, in my view, the recent disposal is quite the game-changer in a number of respects ,and shows Sidara and Wood's lenders that Wood can indeed generate cash at the drop of their hat.

Sidara's offer now needs to be revised upwards to 45p plus $450M. To achieve the 45p, Sidara's cash injection of $450M may in fact be lowered to circa $350-$375M. Of course, all of this is still dependent on Wood's accounts...combined with discusssions between Wood and Sidara who will still be engaged jointly with Wood's lenders.

Wood has just proven that the sum of its parts are worth far more than its whole. Of course, Sidara knew that already. The best case outcome for Wood's shareholders would be that Wood's accounts are not 'so' bad. If this proves to be the case, then Sidara will have serious work to do to push their offer (whatever that may be) to Wood's BOD who 'due to material changes since Sidara's initial expression of interest' may not now be 'minded to recommend' Sidara's offer to its shareholders 'as it significantly undervalues Wood as a company'. That said, to do this, Wood needs full support from Wood's lenders, which after today, has taken a giant leap forward.

On another note: My prediction is one more extention, then accounts ought to be published in August with subsequent talks/negotiations/decisions made in September. All to play for here!

GLA

@Icecool Glad to see you finally cleared that up...with all the back and forth (love and hate) between you and the BOD I thought I was watching a game of tennis at Wimbledon! Not sure how many of the BOD are left now 3 resigned and did not stand at the AGM, and the Chairman will jump ship ASAP. That leaves the CEO, the interim CFO (not part of the earlier BOD) and a few others in the crew. Not much of a 'clear out'. Anyway, I doubt it will happen...if it were ti happen it would have happened at the AGM. My guess is that once the accounts are known, Sidara will make their formal offer and the BOD will put it to the shareholders quicker than Starmer can change his mind on the 'Winter Fuel Allowance'. The vote will be in favour, and most shareholders will walk away at a profit (except Long term shareholders) and will wander into the sunset ready to fight another day. Sidara meanwhile will have themselves a nice little business and hopefully Wood employees may find themselves with the re-introduction of staff bonuses after a short time. PS. As I mentioned previously, there is still talk of another bidder in the wings...do not rule out Apollo who like to buy distressed companies, inject capital and turn them around. With two bidders, the 35p ought to increase to circa 45-50p at least. However, if the accounts are very bad, Sidara will very likely be the on;y bidder. Not too long to wait now. All hands on deck for the productions of the audited accounts. The end of July will be telling, very telling.

@Icecool 'I’ve never said the board’s done nothing right, the shift to higher-margin work, disposals, cost controls, etc. are all steps in the right direction.'

Icecool 🤡so even though the BOD have teken 'steps in the right direction' you have made up your mind, you want the BOD gone! Now, pronto, no second chances! Bye-bye! Lol

@Icecool 'A board can deliver operational wins and be a governance disaster. Both can be true. One doesn’t cancel out the other.'

@Icecool 🤡So do you want to continue with the current BOD or do you want to replace them with a new BOD??? Make up your mind man! Lol

Correction: Meant to say an example of Icecool hating to love the BOD: 'I’ve never said the board’s done nothing right, the shift to higher-margin work, disposals, cost controls, etc. are all steps in the right direction.' Lol

@Icecool You have flip-flopped on your love-hate relationship with the BOD more times than Starmer has on his policies...Winter Fuel scrapped, winter fuel back...need I say more?! OK...a couple of recent examples in the last hour...

An example of Icecool in love with the BOD: 'Since suspension, we’ve had over £30m in disposals, multiple significant contract wins, and review completed with no additional findings'

An example of Icecool hating the BOD: 'I’ve never said the board’s done nothing right, the shift to higher-margin work, disposals, cost controls, etc. are all steps in the right direction.'

Icecool the 🤡 (my first emoji...dedicated to Icecool! Lol)

@Icecool 'Oh really? Based on what exactly? Your crystal ball?'

Nope 7p to 11p based on Wood's dire state of affairs...including the arrival on the door step of the relevant authorities. I doubt if anyone here knew a couple of months back, what we know, now that anyone here would still be invested in Wood.