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PPPS!
GKP has also just 'broken out' of it's downward trend on the hourly chart from 195p, with a nice little 'backtest' of the breakout line.
GKP and Genel have appeared to be 'bedfellows' this last 6-months.
I'm sure I'm going to fall flat on my face here, but tghis is what I'm seeing on my charts.
Best wishes,
Jack
PPS. GKP has also put in a "Double Bottom" at 164p with a 'bullish divergence' on the MACD, Stochastics and RSI and also coinsides with their 61.8% Fibbonacci retracement level from the move from 90p to 300p.
Looking good to me.
Jack
Hi Boyach,
I like the technical analsis in your posts, but I suggest you also have a look at the Weekly chart (which is actually a stronger and more reliable than the Daily which you use. On the Weekly you will see that contrary to your daily view,
:
1. There is a good deal of support around 160 and
2. The 100 weekly average also sits at around 160.
3. We also appear to have made a "Double Bottom" at 157.5
GKP is making progress today and Genel has remained static desite a 250 pip drop in OP y/day and the OP has picked up 100 pips with Monthly contract close out tomorrow, Oil also appears to have put in a "Double Bottom at 5600.
For me, we've hit the bottom, but all this could easily change with the market reaction to the Brexit 'Deal or No Deal. Howver Genel will have had its Trading Update before this event which will boost the SP, and ultimately, Genel is not directly affected by UK Domestic events.
Just my view, but I'm calling the bottom at 157.
Best wishes
Jack
Considering the Oil Price was trashed y/day afternoon / evening, we're holding up quite well.
If it's any consolation, DNO has had a similar demise to Genel, so it's clearly not company specific.
My guess is additional risk is being applied to the region because Iraq is still unable to form a Cabinet Gov't.
Hey Ho! Onward.
Jack
My mistake,
Gap at 160.1 on my chart which has now been filled hitting todays low of 159.1.
Hopefully that will be the ned of the slump.
By the way, Oil contracts close on third Thursday of each month, which is this Thursday, so OP should begin to strengthen thereafter.
Hold on guys,
We're very close to the bottom IMO
Jack
Thanks for your note.
Speaking of technical indicators, & from my observations, the most reliable "buy" signal is when PI's are full of doom & gloom and capitulation!
The most reliable "sell" signal is when PI's are all shouting £5 by Xmas!
Best wishes
Jack
Evening all,
Not posted in a while but read this board and all it's excellent contributors daily.
Like all, I am mystified by the extent of the drop, but with a gap at around 158, I now feel sure this will be filled and probably mark the bottom or thereabouts.
Apart from oil price, general market gitters, Brexit, a correction from a dizzying rise and, I would suggest that the political machinantions in Iraq are weighing quite heavily on genel.
There is also a technical apttern called Elliott waves, No share moves in a straight line. As far as I understanding, the principle is that a share moves up in "Waves" of sustained buying and down in "Waves" with sustained selling.
For me, Wave 1 was 54p to 166p; (then a correction back to 90p) Wave 2 being 90p to 300p, (Then the current correction to 150ish) then Wave 3, often a long Wave from 150ish to 500??.
I did manage to sell at 290, but began to buy again around 225 (not expecting the slump to be so severe.
Hey Ho! I'm sure there will be a reversal soon, particularly with Trading Update in mid Jan and lots of good news in the pipeline.
Chin up!
Jack
PS1. Boyach, Really appreciate your technical analysis
PS2. Please put me down for 1556 for Friday and hope I don't win!.
Good morning Sir, Thanks for your continued contribution on this stock, which I, along with a number of other PI's find extremely helpful. One question if I may? I notice that there was a gap down this morning. Given the apparently low volumes at the current level, would it be fair to call this an "exhaustion" gap? 'Exhaustian' gaps often mark the end of a trend. By the way, how do you spell exhaustion? Thanks in advance for your view Jack
Wel well well! Looks like you've got your entry or thereabouts so well done you! Possibly, the move y/day was a bull trap? I'm now a little concerned that if the 140 area doesn't hold, 138 is next resistance, and failing that a potential double bottom around 133. If that goes, I just don't know, but given the RNS / y/day I would have thought that the 'Sprit Energy' revenue stream would support the price? I'd be interested in your view. Jack
Thanks yet again for your thoughts and chart. I really admire your disciplne Kellogs! Of course this is the absolute key to successful trading. Good luck to you Sir, (although it's not so much luck as good management & you clearly excel!) Best wishes, Jack
Smartgroup! Nicely supported with analysis as well. Me, I never trust anyone that can't spell gUarantee! Keep up the excellent work! Jack
Guys. Really struggled to top upon these 10 mins ago. - Had to a0 phone, or b) use limit order. Eventually got them at 82.5 and can already sellthem at 82! I used to teach the daughter of the Chairman of Ceres, a Mr Philip Holbeche, although I get the impression from Director deals that he took the money and ran in 2006. He did have a heart condition so who can blame him! Nevertheless, he was a really really SOLID well educated guy of the highest integrity and I would back anything with which he had had an association. Looking at the web-site, if BG are prepared to back them to the tune of £10m and they have raised another £20m from s/h as well as a £1.2m gov grant (giving them £45m cash) on a mar cap of £63M this seems to me to have a downside risk of 30% and an upside benefit of??? Well, if it comes off, it could be anything! Got to be worth 3% of my P/folio. BW&GL to all. Jack PS. If any of my analysis / research is incorrect, please let me know!
Nice to see you all still posting. I'm back in after a short sabbatical Think (hope) this is the bottom? Onwards & upwards from here. Someone said they were quoting for LBG group and it only needs one or two similar contracts to come in tounderpin this share and start the rise up. I need 40p to recoup the £2k it 'owes' me and I'm confident I'll get it - eventually! Heard BOC had been banned! - Anyone knowanything about that? BW. Jack
Thanks guys. You're both top posters. Will be back - This share owes me £1200.00 and I intend to get it back, but "IF" in the meantime I can make more than here, I'll win both ways. Good luck and keep up the excellent research & analysis. Jack
Hi guys, FYI I sold this afternoon at 24.75. They would only allow me to sell 10000 and when I tried to sell another 5000 I was refused on Barcs MM. What does that tell you?? I now notice that the SP then closed at 25.25! Did I move the market! - Wrong direction I'm affraid. I only sold cos I need the cash to invest elsewhere. I really can't see this moving substantially in the next few months and rather than sitting looking at it, I thought I'd bail and return when there is some movement. Thanks for all of your interesting, knowledgeable and well researched posts and I wish everyone good luck. I'm certain this will recover and reach the dizzy heights of 70+ in time and I hope to be back to enjoy the party! Good luck guys and see you soon. Jack