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Thanks Boyo,
Without a doubt, you have been one of the very best contributors to this board and your technical analysis has been first class.
I feel sure that when the dust settles in 12-months or so, Genel will be extremely well placed to grow.
For me however, there are just too many "Ifs and buts" atm, and the Iraqi / Kurdy political and finacial situation if far too uncertain over this period of adjustment.
Take care and hope you eventually get your break even.
Jack
Fully agree Boyo.
Triple top doesn't bode well either & presumably Iraq pruduction cuts will also include Kurdistan, and reflected / shared amongst all Kurdy producers.
Regular payments in this environment also has to be an issue as well.
I've sold out completely this morning.
We'll see if that was a wise or foolish decision.
Best wishes to all whatever you decide.
Jack
Courtesy of CCC on the other board.
"Natural Resources" determines the oil reduction rate of production in Kurdistan in accordance with OPEC agreement
Natural Resources
oil reduction rate
Kurdistan
2020/04/13 12:04:12
Shafaq News / The Energy, Natural Resources, Industry and Trade Committee of Kurdistan Regional Parliament announced on Monday that the region should reduce 23% of its production of crude oil according to Iraq’s agreement with OPEC.
"The Ministry of Natural Resources should reduce 23% of the oil production in the region," the committee’s Rapporteur, Serko Kalali, said in a post today.
He explained, "That is, the region must reduce 103 barrels from the total production and export, which amounts to 346 thousand and 500 barrels per day."
The Iraqi Oil Minister, Thamer Al-Ghadban announced earlier today that the agreement to reduce oil production will help reduce stocks and support prices.
Iraq welcomed the results of the OPEC + meeting, in which the commitment of the members of the group reached a historic cut in production to support oil prices, amounting to approximately 10 million barrels per day, in addition to a reduction by producing countries outside the group, most notably America and Canada.
The group, known as OPEC +, said it has agreed to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, after lengthy talks for four days.
OPEC + said it wanted producers outside the group, such as the United States, Canada, Brazil and Norway, to cut another five percent or five million barrels per day.
Hi Boyo,
G performance has been quite astonishing, but perhaps in view of their strong y/e results, strong FCF & balance sheet, along with expansion plans, the market has reassessed them and raised to G v OP factor?
Jack
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/how-to-serve-u.s.-interests-by-saving-kurdistans-economy; Courtesy of CCC on GKP Board
Part of an article by Micheal Knights.
U.S. POLICY PRIORITIES IN KURDISTAN
Ensure the KRI pays investors. The U.S. Energy Department has worked assiduously to support the KRI with advocacy and equity financing for oil and gas infrastructure projects, but this relationship will come crashing down if the Kurds stop paying investors. The department should immediately tell KRI officials that their current plan—to defer four missing months of payments for at least nine more months—will shatter remaining investor confidence. Instead, the KRI leadership needs to teleconference with investors immediately to negotiate a consensual payment deferral deal, as opposed to an enforced industry loan to the KRI. Speed is essential; if just one investor collapses, others will take fright.
Buy Kurdish oil. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve is buying oil at the current low prices, and while most of these purchases come from American producers, there is leeway to buy some abroad. For example, Washington could purchase some Kurdish crude as a form of soft loan at this critical moment.
Support the Peshmerga. The United States currently provides $17 million per month to the KRI security forces, who are battling both the Islamic State and the coronavirus. Yet this aid is down from $23 million last year and is due to end altogether in April. Instead, Washington should sustain the aid for as long as needed and increase it back to its 2019 level.
Help recover Bankmed assets. The KRI appears to have up to $1 billion in assets frozen in this Lebanese bank—a sum that could by itself transform the region’s near-term economic outlook. As a major investor and financial services player, the United States may be able to speed up the recovery process.
Reassure Barzani, drive reforms. The KRI prime minister is committed to economic reforms, but the previous government arguably undercut this effort from the outset by relaxing salary reductions at the end of its term, which put around $200 million in monthly costs back onto the new government. Barzani’s effective handling of the coronavirus underlines his strong potential as an economic reformer, and the need to cut salaries and allowances is his first test. The U.S. government should embrace such efforts warmly, and press other Kurdish actors in Sulaymaniyah, Erbil, and Dahuk to publicly back all austerity measures ordered by Barzani rather than exploiting the situation for short-sighted political benefit.
Help Kurdish gas replace imported diesel. The Energy Department is well-placed to support the KRI’s plans for extending its natural gas distribution system to those power stations still running on expensive imported diesel. This step alone would save the Kurds tens of millions of dollars each month and increase electricity availability by 750 megawatts at little cost. The same .
The 3 pip gap at 82 has now closed.
Will it bounce or will the decline continue. The new backdrop suggests the latter,.
The oil industry desperately needs lifeline discussions and a magnanimous gesture by one/some of the main players.
I don't see the point of continuing to produce & sell a valuable resource for buttons.
Is it possible to suspend operations and freeze the SP?
I have no clue, just asking for opinions.
ATB
Jack
Saw an interesting interview with Scott Sheffield (CEO of Pioneer Resorces) last night.
Makes an interesting point that:
1. Exxon & the big guys are quite happy to see shale go to the wall, as "they will pick up the scaps" and
2. That "Trump has a lot of votes to protect from Shale states"the areas where shale contributes significantly to local community, therefore he has an incentive to 'bang heads together'
Only a 5-min cameo but well listening to an Oil insider
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DSBl70-3euY
ATB
Jack
Thank you for your note Boyo.
Unfortunately, I think that his comments were particulary unhelpful to other contributors, particularly a a time of finacial distress for many investors, including me!
I think it's irresponsible
Take a profit and average down would have been better 'advice', rather than ramping and ridicule.
A poster to be avoided in my view.
Jack
Hi Mikey,
Really sorry to hear of your health issues and I sincerely wish you all the very best.
In response to your question, I'm not certain that the Kurds fulfilled the 'agreement' - I seem to recall some "technical issues" which need to be resolved post "agreement" - as is the usual case in the cesspit that is Iraq.
I therfore belive that the KRG are still in control of all of their oil and its marketing, which in the current climate fetches probably around $20/bl.
The chances of us being paid anything in the next 6-months seems like a 'snowballs' chance in the hell that this region is.
To then ask IOC's for "donations" is, in my view, and shared by may others on her, an absolute disgrace.
I wish to god, I'd given up after the last wipeout, but I did'nt believe lightening would strike twice.
It has and I'm very concerned.
All the best
Jack (We met at the Court once)
Hasiba,
I presume that your remarks on this thread regarding a pullback to 82p are aimed at me.
I have merely posted my view on an open opinion board and supported my view with a few rather key fundamental issues facing Genel and all other Kurdy Oilies as follows:
1. We are some 4-moths behind with payments and these won't be arriving anytime soon with OP below $40/brl
2. The KRG are so broke, they are asking IOC's for "Donations"
3. Unless there is some dramatic change in Opec's stance, OP is likely to remain at these lowly levls for some time.
4. Genel SP currently at a factor of 3.57 against Oil, against a factor of 3 which as Boyo constantly reminds us is the norm atm
5. I hold 27500 shares in this outfit and I am concerned by all of the above issues.
I sincerely hope that in 12-18 months, my avaerage price of 188p will be achieved, but this is wholly dependat on the OP recovery & the KRG remaining solvent enough to pay us.
With the greatest respect, I think you are becoming a little over exhuberant atm, and this side of a Takeover / buyout, I think your views are misplaced, although I obviously hope I'm wrong.
Finally, I do not appreciate my rational comments, supported by FACTS, to be ridiculed by you, or indeed anyone else on an open forum. This kind of childish behaviour drives people away.
A simple apology will suffice.
Jack