Member Info for iWantThatOne

Banananan, agree, AFC could potentially reach profitability very quickly, especially if they could work with a finance provider. Exhibit A - AVO, who make proton therapy cancer machines, have announced a deal whereby a finance provider pays AVO for the full system cost - including some manufacturing costs (!) - whenever a hospital or medical centre wants to buy one of AVO’s systems (cost c€50m). The medical centre then repays the finance provider to an agreed schedule. AVO will have significantly reduced capex requirements. I’m sure AFC would benefit from a similar arrangement.

Drill is through the outer skin of the onion, just entering the avocado which is impaled on the carrot. Cigar’s gone, that’s in Colin’s humidor now, waiting for the celebrations.

Well done AFC. Saw the news first thing this morning but I’ve only just logged in to read all the comments. Glad that’s what I did, the crazy SP action would have given me a stroke. I know I should have total confidence in AFC itself but for some reason I’m taking great comfort from EE’s own engineers having given the unit a thorough check! Any external validation is a good thing. Hopefully no investor now will doubt that AFC can deliver.

Interesting, I sold out of ITM today and bought more AFC! Which has more potential for SP growth? Only one answer for me.

On the next holes, would it not make more sense to drill below the deepest of the previous lateral holes? They already give a good sense of the width nearer the surface. Hole 002, which is sandwiched between previously drilled holes, will tell us something but I’m not sure why it would produce a surprise, given that fact.

House broker note, so take it with a pinch of salt. I think BGO needs to have a good 2021 to really get the rockets going. At present they have barely moved into profitability and we have little visibility of the quantum of data monetisation that Liberum refer to. Until now it's the payments side that has completely dominated, so I'm keen to see what the forecasts are for the Bango Audiences. Nevertheless, the SP is clearly lower than it should be and at this price is almost completely de-risked, IMHO.

I'm expecting a doubling of the share price in H2. That would seem a fair reflection of the IP. This assumes a working machine of course.

Sorry, the *green electricity* generated by wind and solar then feeds into electrolysers to produce green hydrogen.

Hi Anne, they were talking about applications where wind and solar can't directly be used, such as mobility, where the green hydrogen generated by wind and solar feeds electrolysers that generate hydrogen for use as fuel in heavy trucks, buses and cars. NEL are leaders in refuelling stations, for example, and are clearly relying on hydrogen vehicles forming a decent chunk of the transport population alongside battery EVs. There are also many other applications in heavy industry including steel production, refineries, fertilisers, cement etc.

The NEL Capital Markets Day was really interesting - still working my way through the three hours of presentations. But for those constantly comparing AFC to ITM etc. (and I've done a bit of that myself), someone on the NEL board posted that the analysts at HSBC currently value ITM at 7x projected 2030 sales (!). NEL are at 3x 2030 sales. Therein lies a potential difference to AFC - these electrolyser companies are working towards dominance of a market that (according to NEL today) will rival offshore wind and solar.

Apologies if I missed any discussion but I thought AB’s name check of CF Industries in his blog yesterday was a bit gratuitous. The largest manufacturer of green ammonia in the UK. Perhaps he was hinting. Incoming strategic collab?

“We’ve got a big animal....!”. (CB).

Good to see Andrew and other LTHs back, euphoria certainly overtook a lot of people on the board for a few days. Great ride though! The fact that the first hole is twice as deep as expected, and that much of the mineralization is continuous, are really positive and should give a significant boost to the current inferred resource figure in due course. Let’s hope the next few holes can also show some upgrade on expected width. And with grades still to be determined, this will stay exciting for some while yet.

Dibs, I absolutely hope this does become a full Tier-1, of course I do - I’m just looking for substance rather than a count of how many times CB uses the word “excited”. The detail on the website indicates drill depths of c500m previously (so we’re at twice that - great), with widths of 30-130m, though broadening at depth according to more recent drilling. So to be clear, what we’ve got so far is twice the depth previously explored (and counting) but no more further hard evidence yet about widths or grades. That’s fine, and I look forward to filling in the gaps in the coming weeks.

To those who are saying this is a phenomenal discovery, can I ask - evidence? Presumably the previous drilling to 800+ metres hit continuous mineralization to that depth, and that led to the inferred 71m tons. And we have no evidence yet that the width is anything special. Not trying to put the dampeners on, just looking for context....

JDAU, of course you’re right that the ore body is not strictly conical, I was just doing something simplistic based on CB’s description off a “pencil lying on its side”. The image I had, therefore, was a rough cone lying horizontally (not an upside down cone with the thin end at the top, as mooted here too). The ore body will be an amorphous shape but I still think that one can estimate it’s rough size once we have details from the three drill holes and given how far apart they’re spaced, and (crucially) confirmation of the orientation of this “carrot” - as a first indication anyway. We’d also need details from drill holes lateral to the strike. Probably not worth pursuing any further right now but I’ll come back to it.

Thanks Lucky, that’d reduce the length of the carrot by 2.5-3x. So we’d need a 1-1.5km length now. And if drilling over the weekend extends the mineralization to 1000m (so the carrot radius is now 500m), then that roughly halves the length again, to well less than 1000m. (This carrot analogy is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.....).

So we need 2m tonnes of Cu for the buy-back clause to come into play? Ok, so how does it look currently against that target? If they’re drilling down through the “carrot”, as CB described it, we can estimate the volume of ore. A cone has volume 1/3 pi r squared x length. If they’re drilling down the far left hand end of the cone (the biggest end) then “r” is 350m currently (approx - 800m depth less 100m before mineralization). So the volume of the cone is 12.8m cubic meters per 100m length. If one cubic metre equals one tonne (?) then at 0.45% Cu, that’s 0.0576m tonnes Cu. So to get to 2m tonnes Cu we’d need the carrot to be 3.5km long. Starter for ten.......

I wouldn’t be so sure that we’re seeing the last of Schroders. Even if they sell out now (which I doubt they will), they know AFC, why wouldn’t they take some nice profits (15m shares x 50p?) but also participate in any future fund raising?

And to add to the “why are we a tad cynical about Colin Bird” posts, for me it was the alluvial contract RNS that promised way more than was ever intended - a shockingly inaccurate (to be charitable) communication that really should have been investigated by the FCA. On the back of that one, I and others I’m sure invested significant amounts. Only now after selling out and buying in again at low prices am I seeing a profit. You live and learn, and - while conscious that the CB curse can always strike again - I’m quite hopeful about the company now.