Member Info for iWantThatOne

Lloyd I think you’re not appreciating the possibility of this being a mine containing 2m tonnes of copper. Hard to compare to other mines as not many are that sort of size. Personally I think we need to get beyond the assays to an updated JORC for the share price to make serious moves upward but if that confirms 450Mt at 0.45% Cu or something equivalent then I’d be surprised if the sp isn’t north of 30p.

If CB has seen the assay results then he couldn’t buy. No “maybes”, or “being slightly naughty”. He also has to be *seen* to be operating within the rules. I expect it’ll be well into next week before we hear. Still, going well isn’t it?

Encouraging update today, all on track. Imagine being able to out-compete PEM technology - just let that sink in. And correct usage is “an” RNS!

It’s like Colin is slowly building a house here. Three drill results - foundations are done. More drilling will see a few courses of brickwork. Assay results - that’s the first floor windows. A long way to go before it’s even watertight but it’s value increases bit by bit. Pretty soon he’ll have to start marketing it for sale (theiceberg’s points from the other day).

Good set of results I thought, surprised not to see a more positive response. Harsh of some IMO to focus on jam tomorrow and a lack of named contracts. We know from the past that some customers simply don’t want to be named, and this is protected by an NDA. We also know that the Murata production lines will produce significantly higher revenue over the coming months. There’s no need to sign another big contract to prove the company can produce revenue. So a lot is baked in, but I guess many won’t commit until they see it actually delivered.

Did CB REALLY say that a drill breakdown (or weather problems, or something else) would be reported right away in an RNS? Or did he just say he wouldn't get back to us until hole 3 had finished? Happy to be proved wrong if someone can point to the exact statement but I'm beginning to get a little suspicious.....Minor delays in drilling aren't "material" in my book and aren't reported by other mining companies.....and CB has form.

Very interesting figures, Andrew. Does anyone know what position CB would have to get Bushranger to before AA or any other major would sit down at the table? i.e. an updated JORC and detailed 3D model is one thing, but would any of FS/DFS/BFS be needed? Much more drilling to firm up on the resource and grades?

Amidst all the recent disappointment about the share price trickling down, I surprised myself last night when I checked and was reminded that the share price was in the 20's as recently as November. It was around 37p when the ABB news dropped in December, just two months ago. It put on about 30p over the following week or so to Christmas, then a further 20p between Christmas and New Year. Against that background it's not surprising that the share price has come off a bit and that some shorters may be playing games. Personally I think it'd be good if we could consolidate at this level, get a bit of stability before the next leg up. Looking forward to good updates on the sales pipeline, Acciona and AlkaMem - that should give a bit of a boost.

Could have had a broken drill bit.....just sayin’! Hope not.

I just read about Infnite Power today too:

“The UK government has jumped on Infinite Power’s cobalt-60 battery to help solve an immediate conundrum: how to switch from combustion engines to EVs without breaking the grid, already under transition stress as it goes from being a 20th Century fossil-based system to a 21st Century flexible system of distributed green power.

The UK would in theory have to double its total generation to decarbonise just half of all road transport traffic, although a static analysis exaggerates the apparent difficulty: EV car batteries would themselves be part of the solution by charging at night and releasing power back to the grid at peak times for an arbitrage profit. Nevertheless, cobalt-60 is the answer to immediate prayers at the Department of Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy.

“We’ll be rolling out the first EV charging points within twelve months. The UK government is extremely positive. They see it as a way to promote export-led industry and rebuild trade links with Commonwealth countries,” said Mr McLeod.”

Somehow I can’t see it. Ridiculously over-optimistic.

It’s difficult to assess fair value for XTR until we have the 3D model populated with size, depth and grades. Once we have that we’ll have an indication whether it’s a commercial prospect and at what scale. CB seems very happy with the size and with the Cu grades (even on the little data he has). However it’s possible the project ends up being “medium-sized”, not being enticing enough for the big boys but also too big for XTR. Still a nice problem to have but I’m just going to take it easy for the next six weeks. SP predictions are fun but meaningless at this stage.

I think the Health Secretary’s proposals could play out well for TLY. We know he’s been frustrated by not being able to direct the NHS directly, instead having to be satisfied with giving broad direction to Sir Simon Stephens to deliver results. Talk of “greater collaboration”, a trimming of low value-add procurement processes and the need for pace and agility could see trusted partners like TLY awarded more contracts with greater speed.

Jux, BillyBoy, yes I agree we all need to see details for each pit when the new mine plan is released shortly. Setting aside AISCs for now and looking at production, it was less than one year ago that the rolling 5 year mine plan was released. This anticipated 120-125k ozs in each of 2020-22, followed by 100-108k ozs for 2023-24. Clearly that 120k oz for 2021 has already been downgraded by 10-15%. It's hard to understand why unless their grade expectations at that time (last Feb) were higher and have now been downgraded to the 2.4g/t quoted by DB. Covid might partly explain it I suppose - less efficiency with altered processes, i.e. it takes longer to process each ton? It's possible that the newer pits could see a return to higher ounces per year, I suppose, but until I have a better explanation for 2021 and the downgrade from last Feb I'll remain sceptical.

The Blythe interview today has explained some of the reasons behind the increase in AISCs and the low ounces in Q4 and 2021. DB puts Q4 down to the blocks of ore mined in Q4 unfortunately being ones that just happened to be low grade (clearly a blow, just when they needed a good quarter, and perhaps a catalyst for the mine visit?) - in his opinion that's just mining, it happens. And then progressing into 2021, mining at depth in KE as they are now, is always more expensive - and the mine plan had lower grade too at this level. Put that lot together - fewer ounces, lower grade - and you get higher AISCs. Add about $100 per ounce for the 2021 exploration programme, I reckon. I'm sure old-timers here can verify whether that narrative is supported by the original mine plan. Like it or not, this is the new paradigm, I think. c100k ozs at say $1250 for as long as the mine lasts.

Like almost everyone I’m disappointed with the AISC figures announced today. In terms of company valuation we should also note that the Mali Gov is stepping up its percentage to 20%, so from the supposed projected EBITDA (or post-tax profit) we then deduct their share plus the tax. Knock off $10m for capex and more for further exploration and some of the very cheap valuation comments are somewhat overdone IMHO. I think the current mcap is about right for Yanfolila alone but there’s very significant upside from Koroussa and Dugbe.

That’s a very decent chunk of the ore body that’s 3g/t AU. Racecourse may be ultimately broadly similar in size to Boda but those are terrific gold grades, about which we nothing yet at Racecourse.

Interesting article yesterday about how nuclear power plants are planned to close over the next decade without adequate replacement, which will leave the UK several GW short even on the best assumptions. Small local nuclear plants (Rolls Royce and others) have been mooted but seem far from certain. I can’t help feel that AFC S-Series should start to form part of the potential solution. Early days but could be viable....

Perhaps CB reined it in a bit because Zak sounded a bit bored. What, you again? What have you got for us today (sigh)?!

Yes good point Andrew, he may have bought the license for Bushranger thinking we can treble this JORC but he may be more ambitious now given what’s been found.

If I heard right, in his interview today CB said the ultimate aim was to increase the JORC by 2-3x (so c 200Mt). That would be well below what’s needed for the AA buy-out (450Mt, depending on grades?). Still an excellent result.