Member Info for iWantThatOne

Yellow, you question the reliability of AFC’s systems. You are aware of the extended testing of the old Kore at Stade in Germany? And the progression towards 4-year longevity of the electrodes under the JDA with De Nora? The extended JDA based on initial targets having being met, with a mutual commitment to new and greater targets? The company’s statement that longevity for the EV market was not an issue in any case, due to the way the systems were used and the premium prices that could be supported? I could go on, it’s all there in the RNSs. Your attempt to question the longevity and rigour of the current Hydro-X systems doesn’t stand up to scrutiny.

Value of all pension pots is NOT tested annually against the Lifetime Allowance! LTA is tested when pots are crystallized and thereafter only on certain events, usually at age 75 or earlier death.

Well done AFC, another strong collaboration that will eventually lead to a strong pipeline of orders. We may see no orders for a while but the combination of ABB, Ricardo and (hopefully) Acciona will soon see that change. All building nicely.

Agree, I’n not interested in chasing “maybes” elsewhere, I’ll just continue to add on dips ready for a very significant move north mid-year. In fact I’m sure we’ll get an update before then.

Good results today, pleased with that, the only slight disappointment being the fact that EUS didn’t double compared to last year, though H2 was undoubtedly strong at about £1.15bn. I think there’s some evidence in the figures too of Bango Marketplace contributing more strongly, eg cash hasn’t increased as much as the revenue figures would suggest, hence might be some revenue sharing going on? With 2000 app developers now paying for audiences, this could be very rewarding from now on. 2021 is when the EPS will really kick up, should be exciting!

I’m happy with the update today, lots of detail in there. Everything sounds positive as far as I’m able to judge. Surprised we haven’t seen another modest increase in the SP.

Twirl, so you think any number of lenders would lend up to 50m Euros against a proton therapy system, the likes of which that institution will have no knowledge or experience? I don't think they'll be falling over themselves. And think of the treatment centres buying this system - how much easier to buy the system and sort the financing from a one-shop provider, DiaMedCare? All goes to reduce friction in the sales/purchase process. And if DiaMedCare DO cover manufacturing costs and thereby remove the need for AVO to provide the initial working capital, or even avoid further fund-raises.....well, that's even more significant.

Excellent news.....treatment centres will be able to access LIGHT for an ongoing fee or similar rather than a huge upfront cost as with other systems. A positive technical update on Monday should see this share price really start to move.

Tenbaggerboy, it’s not really possible to directly compare potential contract values for hydrogen producers like NEL and power generators like AFC, in my view. For example, I think NEL’s stated electrolyser costs are about €1m per MW, with an expectation (from ITM) that this will fall to half that by 2025. AFC has alluded to costs of £5k per kW for it’s EV chargers, or £5m per MW. I’d expect that to come down substantially over time. Both NEL and ITM are developing 1GW factories but it’s not clear if that’s the expected production per year. If it is, they might expect annual revenues of (currently) €1bn. AFC would match that with EV orders of about 180MW pa. Are either of those likely? Are profit margins similar? Who knows. Happy to hear any challenges to my figures!

Well I didn't expect that today! A very nice run up to Xmas. And if we all thought 2020 was a good year for AFC, just think what 2021 could hold......Merry Xmas everyone. Next stop: Extreme E and Acciona.

I agree, I think Dugbe could be huge. Take the $186m NPV (from memory) and increase it for a) increased POG, b) reduced power costs and therefore AISCs, and c) increased ounces. These are not minor adjustments, they will each have a very significant effect on NPV. The capital requirements are large and there are substantial operational issues but even applying a big discount for all that, this could be a huge asset for HUM.

Keith - the payments revenue didn’t double in line with EUS because the larger partners (think Amazon Japan) pay fees to BGO that reduce as their total EUS increases. That’s all part of the fee structure. So it’d go from say 1% of EUS to 0.5% or whatever. My observation here is that the reduction in average fee paid as a % of EUS seems to have slowed recently, so hopefully there will be a more linear correlation between revenues and EUS going forward. Note that the downward trend in average fee level is built into PER’s research notes and projections, so when c£10m FCF is quoted for 2021, that is predicated on an average fee of something like 0.5%.

Great to see the continued upward direction of the SP, though I admit its feeling a little "bubble-ish" to me at the mo, even with all the great potential. In terms of potential other investments at early stages, thought I'd mention AVO - disruptive proton beam cancer therapy machines developed partly by those clever particle physicists at CERN. Well worth a look, IMHO.

...and Kenny!

Good stuff, thanks TMan.

Telephoneman, my reading of the Peel agreement is that they pay one single license fee of £0.5m when each DMG unit becomes operational - not £0.5m per year. I’ve just reread the RNS, it’s a little ambiguous but certainly doesn’t imply an annual fee. Am I wrong?

Ringo - some basic research would reveal that "the global direct carrier billing platform market is poised to grow by $40.67 billion during 2020-2024, progressing at a CAGR of 20% during the forecast period." From ResearchandMarkets.com's "Global Direct Carrier Billing Platform Market 2020-2024" report. Hardly a case of "DCB just hasn't taken off".

1000s of units per month? Er, that sounds rather ambitious, Rubic, but some indication of potential volume would be very useful. At the moment we have a collaboration agreement but not a deal for x units at y price. There'll be a lot of hard work now to convert ABB's relationships into contracts.

Well done AFC, what great news! Those dark days of failed electrodes, a 3p share price and radio silence for many months seem very distant now. Congrats in particular to all LTHs who keep the faith throughout those times and whose positivity helped to keep many of us invested. Who knows where we’ll get to if and when a deal is signed with De Nora for water electrolysis! Btw, whatever happened to Rolec?

Beast - You do know that each system will sell for about $40m at a good gross margin, and that in the not too distant past they were talking about manufacturing eight per year? And that once the system is shown to be fully functional - next year - and the first patient is treated, the sales are expected to kick off in earnest?