Member Info for iWantThatOne

Back at 6p this will be a £16m mcap, for a debt-free company that's about break-even but with the potential to push reasonably - or even comfortably - into profitability in 2021.

Dan Betts' mistake was not to raise the issue of potentially missing guidance when Q3 production figures were announced. He knew then that the rains had been horrific and there had already been about one month of Q4 production. Perhaps he was hoping beyond hope that they could claw it back but the latest Mali lockdown has scuppered that? In any event, he was naive. But I don't think he's done anything else wrong. The steps taken to safeguard production were sensible, and the triple whammys of Covid / coup / weather would have tested anyone. The news today has certainly shown up the risk of a single mine - something we know is being addressed. So for me it's a hold.

Good to see the SP moving back on up, now that lockdown has ended and restrictions on travel etc. are loosened.

I think we need confirmation that EUS has doubled again this year, as well as guidance that this will continue through 2021. Perhaps we'll get that in a trading update nearer the year end. The latter in particular should really get things moving, IMO.

Meldrew, the BoD may have been uncommunicative in the past but I found their recent session on the InvestorMeet site very informative. Interesting presentations, and then they did actually respond to the many live questions that retail shareholders, including myself, posted. In fact they went well over their allotted time, from memory.

Some criticism of HUM's management on this board, based on the recent fall in SP. Let's get some perspective. Since 6/11 the gold price has fallen from about $1950 to $1805 (7.5%). HUM's SP has fallen from 36.8p to 29p (21.2%), which is only a little more than the decrease in margin per ounce. But look at other gold producers: Shanta Gold down by 29.5%. Endeavour down by 16.5%. And then some big boys: Barrick Gold down by 20.7%. Anglo Gold down by 27.7%. In other words, the current drop is no reflection on HUM itself but entirely due to the fall in gold price.

Interesting Haggis. I see the only other organisation listed under Organisations for Prof Varcoe's project is PV3 Technologies, based in Launceston. They make coatings for alkaline (and PEM) water electrolytes, among other things - they refer to coatings going onto mesh-type substances (which is what AlkaMem is, I believe). Perhaps AFC are working with this outfit?

Excellent news, another step forward. Just playing with figures - a capacity of “several hundred” units (say 200) of 120kW each (say) equals 24MW pa with approximate sales of £120m (at £5k per kW - per previously quoted figures). Sounds ok to start with!

Good presentation today, I thought (still going on as I speak). Wendy mystified about why the SP isn't higher. I note that with cash of £12m the EV is £20m and the company is trading at EV/EBITDA of about x5. That seems low to me, given the opportunities to grow the business modestly even during current Covid times, and especially looking forward to restoring all treatments ultimately.

Hmm, well, I suppose a c5% drop in the POG today does mean a c10% drop in HUM's margins, so a 10% drop in the SP isn't unrealistic. BUT that still doesn't take anywhere near full account of the value of the company. Any views on where the POG will go from here?

ITM are well ahead of AFC in terms of development, it has to be said. After the announcement of a new strategic partner (Snam) the other day they now have a pipeline of cases they can quote for (with a realistic prospect of success) at over £300m. They also have their 1GW manufacturing site ready to open. Their valuation partially comes from (IMHO) the barriers to entry that will be created when they and several other early movers build scale to such an extent that others can't compete on price. But if AFC can announce a strategic partner of their own shortly (hinted at in a recent RNS), together with some contract wins and a decision to build their own large-scale manufacturing site - well, you can see they'd be on a similar path. The strength of AFC's offering remains to be proven - I don't think the fuel cell market can be tied up by just a few companies in the same way that the electrolyser market might, but I may be completely wrong.

Pleased with today's update. Solid progress. The references to global (potential) partners, a large manufacturing site and good progress with both AlkaMem and the "S" version of H-Power are particularly interesting. It's exciting to think we may be just 18m away from the S models hitting the market. I also note that EV charging is not listed as the first of the applications here - perhaps we'll see contracts for other applications delivered first? Definitely sounds like we can expect decent news flow in the short term.

Imagine if HUM had put out an RNS that said just "AISC will be higher than the average for the year to date due to wet weather etc. ...". The share price would have tanked. No, I think it was definitely right to talk about it only in the context of the Q3 performance in its totality.

The thing that potentially justfies the current mcap for me is the barrier to entry for smaller electrolyser manufacturers once ITM and a few select others reach scale. The reduction in price per kw that they hope to achieve will be matched only by the very largest competitors out there. The early mover advantage could see the market sewn up between just a handful, which will secure profits well into the future. It becomes a bit like Facebook. You can't value that using a PE ratio. If they can reach capacity at Bessemer Park (and you'd hope they haven't got their sums wrong - they're planning the second factory already) that's 1GW of production (p.a.?) worth 500m Euros (at 2025 prices). Big business.

No intention to sell out here. The value of this company when it has a fully working machine will be multiples of its current value. Happy to wait it out.

Very unimpressed with the fundraising today, a) because they said they didn't need the cash just last week and b) because of the discount - not really terrible at 13% but its based over 30 days rather than the more normal 5 or 7, which suggests to me that the investor wanted in at a cheaper rate. In fact, perhaps this fundraising has been at the instigation of an investor rather than the company?

Well I guess investors should have expected some collateral damage due to the military coup, though the excessive rainfall was news to me. There's always something with HUM. $8m less cash generated compared to a "normal quarter", i.e. if AISC had been $1000, which is disappointing. Stlll, it's mostly behind us now so, as they say in football - poor result, we put it right, we go again.

Glad to see the ITM guys answer my question today about revenue. Apologies of old news, but it seems revenue is now only recognised on completion, rather than on specific milestones throughout a contract. Therefore 2020 looks very light on this front. I think they said most of the nailed down contracts would see their revenue recognised in 2021, with the ILE projects with Linde recognised over two years or so. The longer term pipeline (Snam etc) would be spread over a lengthier period (say 5 years).

Excellent presentation today I thought (just finished). A really good set of slides covering the pros of proton therapy and the potential over the next 20 years, and tons of questions. No firm dates given for 2021, which is not surprising given how complex the project is (1200 documents written, 1000+ suppliers etc.) Some interesting "projections" on possible revenue by 2030, which I'll need to see again as it flashed by but I think it showed potential EBITDA £0.8-1.8m (possibly dollars rather than pounds). Harley St continuing and NOT on hold, not least because of the referrals that'll be coming from the Cleveland Clinic. I'm pretty excited about the future - a loooooong term hold!

Excellent news and vote of confidence from IIs. Note the over-subscription and the low discount: "McPhy (Euronext Paris : MCPHY – ISIN : FR0011742329), (the “Company”), specialized in zero-carbon hydrogen production and distribution equipment, announces today the success of its capital increase without shareholders’ preferential subscription rights announced on October 13, 2020, by means of an Accelerated Bookbuild to the benefit of certain categories of beneficiaries, for a total amount of € 180m (the “Offering”).The Offering was oversubscribed several times which enables the Company to upsize the amount of the Offering from an envisaged € 150 m to € 180 m. The subscription price of the new shares was set at € 23.50 per share, representing a discount of 8.56% based on the last closing price."