Member Info for iWantThatOne

From memory HUM's Dugbe DFS had an NPV (8%) of $186m based on $1300 POG, 4.2m ozs and a capex of less than $200m. So the updated NPV has largely been boosted by the increased POG (e.g. an extra $300 on 200k ozs pa is $60m pa) and a slightly reduced discount rate. Going the other way, And there's reduced ounces (3.6m) plus a hugely increased initial capex of nearly $400m, the reason for which I'd like to understand better. The potential additional exploration ounces looks promising and, as stated, there's also scope to reduce the ongoing power costs further, which could also make a significant difference.

The big news today is not the LOI with Saba but the announcement that the company is in track to deliver 230 Mev later this year. No further details given but that's a big thumbs up from me.

Well I for one am very happy there's a type of investor that gets very easily bored and moves on to chase another short-term hopeful. I can afford to wait 12m for this to come good, or at least a lot better than it is now. At 4p per share and c£40m mcap fully diluted, this values a hoped-for 2MT of copper in the ground at £20 ($28) per tonne - compared to $10k spot price. Even ignoring the African assets. I'll be adding more tomorrow if I can get hold of them.

I can see why the SP has gone down. We have swapped what we hoped were deep, extensive areas of decent grades for near-surface exploration at unknown grades but with potential. If it all works out, this will be to the good - cheaper mining with options on the deep stuff. But it would have been nice to have better grades deep down as well as the undrilled area. And of course it'll be many more months before we know if these new areas work out. Still holding of course, the potential upside from here remains enormous.

Good RNS, more tons = more buns!

Billbstrd, you are absolutely right, and I'm happy to applaud any poster who debunks the notion that "the MMs are manipulating the market". And at 54p we're still 50% up on the mid-December price (though we should be, really, given the good news that's flowed since then).

At the risk of repeating what's been posted already, there were quite a few positives I took away from today: All projects and developments going well (accepting Covid-delay for Acciona); some PEM electrolyser companies looking at AlkaMem; more IIs interested, alongside 10 on board already; talks ongoing with many more potential partners than the company currently has; the ammonia USP, 4x more energy dense etc. - great for shipping uses; much talk in shipping industry about net zero; developing own cracker for integration with fuel cell; ongoing cost reductions; move in to hangar in three weeks; easy to replicate manufacturing sites around the world; having chats with some of ABB's data centre clients; a clarification of revenue streams - BoP will be sold at a profit, rest will be leased; and "won't be break-even this year...." but then left it hanging and moved on - was he going to say "in 2022"? Only slight disappointments - hints that there may be no firm orders in 2021 (definitely for ABB), and Q4 Acciona delay. Otherwise, excellent progress, I got a definite feeling that when the time comes the orders will roll in one after the other at scale.

Where are the assays, Colin? Where are the assays!?

Lucky, there are now 840m shares issued, so 2m tonnes at $5000 copper / 3% equates to c25p per share (African assets excluded). However there are also a shed load of warrants, not sure how many in total but 54m from the last placing alone. Assuming 1bn shares once these are allowed for, we'd be looking at c21.5p for Bushranger on the above assumptions - plus another 1p cash maybe from the exercise of the warrants.

He thinks we may have a “game-changer” on our hands.....??

I also doubt that AA or anyone else would use the current spot price for copper in a buy-out calculation - they'd want to see a margin. No doubt CB would argue the price is only going one way but therein lies the art of negotiation.

One assay on its own is not a lot of information. We got the Hole 1 assays on Friday March 19th. What did the SP do? Well 27m shares were traded that day and it didn't do a lot. It went down a little the following Monday. So my take from that is that a very limited amount of assay information is not particularly price-sensitive.

It may be that CB and the company Nomad both consider that the assay results for Hole 2 (which the company will certainly have by now) are not, in themselves, price sensitive. In other words, the hole 2 grades are simply one piece of information that, on their own, cannot give a clear view of whether the ore body is large enough or of a sufficiently high grade to give an economic mine. That's what I think. He's under no compulsion to immediately communicate non-price-sensitive news.

They’ve attached an old interview there by mistake, nothing new.

Whilst I’m disappointed by the raise today I can only assume it’s on the back of acceptable assays for holes two and three. To do so without those grades would be reckless. And if the grades weren’t acceptable then why would he raise £5m at this point (and which IIs would subscribe?)?

I hope people won’t be disappointed with the May 5 event, as IMHO it will simply provide a good summary of where the company’s at, with its strategy neatly laid out, perhaps some additional details on how AFC fits within the H2 landscape, that kind of thing, with time for Q’s. We used to run these events at my old employer, they were aimed at IIs. I certainly don’t expect any new deal or contract to be unveiled at the event, though of course one may be announced separately around this time.

Yes that's true, I can live with a bit of dilution at £3 per share!

Aim, I don’t think that’ll go very far. I’d imagine each good-sized system costs £1m or more (£5k per kW has been mentioned before), so that’s 30 units tops. A lot less when you consider other costs that are being incurred - £4m+ basic overheads pa, the Dunsfold shed, development costs etc. And if they’re only getting in, say, £5m pa from those 30 units in lease costs then they’ll soon need further funding to build the next orders.

I read it that way too Haggis but then AFC will need funding to cover manufacturing costs and working capital or else they’ll be in a similar position to other fuel cell companies - making sales but loss-making for years.

Yes thanks Dave, I was really asking them for progress updates on any of those uses, let's see if they can divulge anything. I'm assuming it'll be as much a strategic update as an operational one so I hope they'll be doing lots of "looking forward".

Interesting to see De Nora now has Snam as a minority investor. Snam injected 33m euros into ITM 6 months ago and is looking to be a leader in green hydrogen production. They seem to be investing quite broadly in the hydrogen space, possibly could lead to new opportunities opening up for AFC through its de Nora connection even if Snam isn't look to invest in fuel cells. AlkaMem might be more directly relevant.