Member Info for iWantThatOne

The markets may be a bloodbath with lots of continuing uncertainty but people still need their cyber security! Opportunities abound for those with spare cash.

How do you know the IIs are selling AFC?

And look at the expectations for interest rate rises by year end. Will they be an apocalyptic 10% pa? No, they’re suggesting 1%. One! Hardly going to cause major problems for pre-commercial companies is it?

So much BS being written on this board now. Instead of saying Bond hasn’t delivered blah blah, 50 projects blah blah, why not reflect on him saying they are busier than ever before and have had to juggle? Is that the sign of a company that doesn’t have a future? No, that’s the sign of a company working hard on some big priorities. As for comms from the company, that does nada if not backed up by sales, just stop this nonsense that a few words from the Board would make everything alright. Losing patience here.

Really good contract win, that. Just to confirm it definitely isn't a typo - its £45m over 5 years, so £9m pa additional revenue.

Slightly mixed messages from CB about Ascot and timescales, I think. On the one hand the latest assays have led him to plan more drilling at Ascot and some more geophys. over the filler region between Ascot and RC; on the other hand he insists you don't need to do loads of drilling, nor do the majors need a measured resource. And he stated that April/May is his target timescale. Yes he did say that exciting results might cause them to rethink, but as it stands Colin isn't planning to do too much. I'm just struggling to see how they can get a sense of the size of Ascot with just a few holes, not to mention what will happen if the magnetic/chargeability surveys are as bright as the ones done at RC and Ascot (and why they weren't done before with the others I don't know).

That’s a nice idea, three or four majors interested should in theory get a better price than just AA - though they might all still low-ball it and we wouldn’t have the security of the Valmin Code process I.e. independent valuation.

Chris, I’m with you, I wonder if CB’s references to “500Mt(+)”, “25Mt for 20 years” (which is of course the same thing) and highlighting Ascot as being “critical” means that we’re probably not at 2Mt from Racecourse alone. We might get there if it extends well to the south but probably not yet. And with assays being generally lower than 0.4%, as you say, that would leave a bit still to be brought into the equation. Not that this should be an issue, though, because there’s plenty of ore there and in any event I’m sure a major would be delighted with something just a tad shy of 2Mt.

So much angst on the board today.....bad days like today always lead to frustrations boiling over. Look, we're all suffering and nobody's happy but let's keep some perspective. AFC isn't the worst fuel cell performer over one month - down 17.1% compared to Ceres 23.4%. It's not the worst over 6m - 22.7% compared to 28.9% (Ballard). It's not the worst over one year - 46.3% compared to Ballard again (69.8%). In fact Ballard, Plug Power (65.5%) and Ceres (49.1%) are all worst performers on share price alone over 12m (admittedly I'm not making allowance for any capital raises here). The point being - Bond can be blamed if you want, and there are clearly things he can do better, but anything vaguely connected to fuel cells is being hammered. I suspect even a few positive announcements from AFC would have limited and temporary impact. Shorts must be closed at some point, and shares must start to look undervalued. I guess it's for each of us to work out where the bottom is and take action accordingly. But please stop the *****ing.

I think that TV segment was about the new huge £250m synchrotron in London, finally going live. There’s been a few misleading articles on that, including one in the Sunday Times that incorrectly said it was the first proton beam therapy machine in the UK (corrected the following week). It got great acclaim. Just wait till they see LIGHT, they’ll wonder why the NHS spent that much when it can now get it so much cheaper!

Predicting share price is a mug’s game, but I and many here are expecting some of those 50 leads mentioned by AB to come good soon and lead to some decent news flow. We could get something on Mace, Julich, Acciona, Altaaqa or a newbie at any time. Thirteen months ago the SP was 36p before it leapt to 85p in just a few months. Ok, that was an irrational rise but to suggest the company is worth little more than thirteen months ago (allowing for a fund raise since) seems mad to me.

Without having watched it again, my take on AB’s video when he announced the ABB S- series sale was not so much that ABB found the L- series “wanting” but that their requirements had changed. No doubt this reflects their own customers to a large extent. I wonder if this is related to how much power each ten foot container can deliver - i.e. maybe the market really needs multiple rapid fast charging sockets for which the L’s may not be ideal? Just guessing.

Decent trading update though if anything I am slightly disappointed by the implied H2 figures - there’s little sign of anything other than trivial revenue from Bango Audiences to date. The business model is validated now, thankfully there’ll be no more nonsense about an inability to make profits. I like the reiterated vision of revenue being in the hundreds of millions. 2022 should be a big year. Will we see a Nasdaq listing? That would supercharge the share price.

Croqman, you’re clearly right that the sector was overly “exuberant” late ‘20-early ‘21. However I’d have thought AFC’s progress since then would be cause for a higher valuation relative to peers than we’re seeing. Hopefully, once the first lumpy sales hit then we’ll see a reappraisal. I guess the potential of being a key player in the enormous data centre, Norwegian maritime and UK and Spanish construction markets is just that right now - potential. Bl**dy big though.

I’m not convinced that any “Plan B” based on selling as soon as 2Mt is confirmed exists, nor should it be. CB has a duty to shareholders that involves balancing their potential returns with the time and cost involved in achieving that - and we all have differing views on the weights that should be put on these two elements. Personally I feel CB would be failing in his duty if he failed to prove up Ascot and Footot much more fully than by a handful of holes, IF it’s pretty clear these are big, potentially as big as Racecourse. Raising £5m to fund Ascot drilling (say) would mean issuing 100m shares - just 10% dilution. And the benefit could be many many multiples of that. 2mt should be seen as a threshold, not a target, IMHO. Others won’t be prepared to wait as long as me but all I’m suggesting is six months’ drilling plus a bit longer for the assays.

Enjoyed the interview. The key question for me, like many here, is how many holes are required at Ascot to hit the sweet spot between getting a sense of size/grade and speed/cost. I’d be unhappy if a system potentially as large as Racecourse were let go at a silly price because it’d be “very” loosely inferred only.

Well Empress’ own RNS from mid- year clearly states (as did XTR’s on the same subject) that the plant will process up to 42k tonnes per month. So 500k tones pa x 2g/t is 1m g, or about 33k ozs pa. Empress gets 2.25%, so about 750ozs. Assuming a generous margin of $1000 per Oz, that’s $750k per year, and repayment of their $2m investment in less than three years. So unless anyone can produce other figures, I’m sticking with my $6m pa to XTR.

Thanks Cyberiachas, unfortunately the Empress docs confirm the plant will only be processing about 40kt per month, so we’re looking at 30k ounces of gold per year only, of which XTR gets 23%. At that rate it’ll take 25 years to get through the resource. Applying a discount rate to XTR’s share reduces the present value of that $100m+ significantly. Perhaps half that? Still, it does definitely underpin the current sp considerably.

Cyberiachas, how have you arrived at the expectation that XTR will benefit from Manica gold production to the tune of "$100m net over the next few years"? Based on the output of the plant that was being built, and all recent estimates that I'ver seen on this board as well as my own calcs, the hoped-for net income to XTR is c$500k per month, or $6m per year. And that would be if everything was up to full speed and operating well at max capacity.

So here's a question to mull over during the festive season....

The Dugbe DFS is due within six months. The metrics in the PEA appear interesting and should be exceeded in the DFS but the initial capex of almost $400m is large. HUM's share of that will be almost $200m. The priority for the cash coming from Yanfolila in the next 18m is to support Kouroussa. So how to finance Dugbe and when?