Member Info for iWantThatOne

Guys, you’re missing an extra zero after the decimal point. If the grade is 0.185% then it’s 0.00185. So you’re out by a factor of 10.

Whilst personally I think we may be a little away from 2Mt at the moment I feel pretty sure we must be at something like 1.3Mt minimum. CB has often said we're looking at 500, 600Mt of ore or higher. If we take lowish grades of 0.25% then even at the lowest end we'd be at 1.25Mt, and perhaps more realistically we'd be at 1.5Mt+. Communication of that right now, backed up by an interim model, would allow CB to open meaningful discussions with AA, a) in the hope/expectation that 2Mt will be forthcoming in due course and b) because even if it isn't, that seems a great resource that most majors would be willing to pay for. The interim model may also set a new, higher base level for the share price, possibly after a slight retrace before the market finally realises the value here. That could also help trigger the 8p warrants to pay for further drilling.

My view, FWIW - RC isn’t closed off to the south so it’ll be a while before a final model could be delivered. Ascot needs a whole heap of extra drilling to understand it. I don’t believe we have 2Mt in RC (grades a bit low for that, and I’m not convinced CB has ever said with certainty that we will reach it) but it should still be sizeable. 2Mt might be reached from further extension to the south but I suspect Ascot will be needed. Given the way Ascot seems to be shaping up (vertical gold-rich structures) then it’s quite a different kettle of fish to RC. Complexity is not ideal. But what do I know? This is just my simple sense of things at the moment.

The idea that we’re in a “quiet period” while a sale is being investigated could explain why an RNS for the African Q1 income hasn’t been released. I can’t see any reason to hold that back - I certainly don’t buy the idea that CB is waiting for FB to go live - why not just announce the two separately? Keeping quiet right now even on African assets might suggest the whole company is under consideration - one for the conspiracy theorists.....!

Something I’ve been wondering is whether there is merit in creating a new holding company for the Oz assets, ie an XTR2 that is not a subsidiary of XTR.

XTR would remain owner of the African assets whilst the Oz licenses would be transferred into XTR2. Of course current shareholders of XTR would become the new shareholders of XTR2 too.

That *might* facilitate a nice neat distribution of 100% of the Oz sale proceeds to XTR2 shareholders, possibly with tax advantages (don’t know - just surmising, but that might be the main driver). In that situation there’d be no residual value from the Oz assets remaining for further exploration by XTR. But then why would any be needed if the African assets are generating anywhere between £6m and £12m pa? ( other estimates are available).

Ok so what’s going on here? It’s not the sector - Boku is doing ok. Not the Nasdaq today. Very few trades, no meaningful sizes. Seems to have declined steadily throughout the day. MMs doing someone a massive favour, trying for large buy on the cheap? Or bad news comb tomorrow?

In the last month, all fuel cell companies are down between 32-45%. In one month. AFC is in that range, near the bottom end. Quite ridiculous mark downs across the sector. Those saying this is all about AFC are talking BS and haven't got a leg to stand on.

That confused me too, Andrew. I read it as meaning the resource is larger so the model needs an update - but a re-work of which model? The one they’ve been working on recently (which would be v positive) or just the one from last July when we had the 30min video with Zak (which wouldn’t be news)?

I’m not concerned about where this is heading but I do feel today’s RNS was misguided. They could have left it for weeks or longer and batched it up with other holes - “this lot over here adds to the resource nicely, and this lot here (i.e. today’s) delineates the resource”.

I’m of the opinion that the existence of the Term Sheet is severely harming retail shareholders’ prospects, and that the funding arrangements could easily have been finalised post-DFS with no detriment to the company’s future. BM has rolled over for the large shareholders.

Ballard, Plug all down c30% in the last month. Powercell down 18% today! Can’t really see a reason why, Q1 figures were out but didn’t look crazy. Hard to avoid that kind of sector crash.

Good analysis on Josemaria here yesterday, Andmillsy. Can I just point out that the resource you’ve shown is for Proven + Probable only. In addition there is another 30-40% resource in the Indicated category. The 3.3mt+ of copper you quote is all in the Measured + Indicated categories, I.e. there is more confidence in those deposits than for BR (though some BR will be Indicated). I’d say that could make a reasonable difference when trying to assess relative purchase prices.

Strange downward drift once again in the SP. Oh well, time for another top-up if it goes much further. This share’s price movements are becoming quite predictable.

Sorry if I missed any comment on this but isn’t it likely that the delay in Q1 alluvial reporting is because the RNS will from now on include all Manica income - i.e. including BE and GF for Q1. It’s just possible that the latter two are taking a bit longer. And/or CB wants to wait for the imminent opening of FB.

Absolute rubbish Solow. “Global Proton Therapy Market Set to Grow from S$ 68.1 Billion in 2021 to Surpass US$ 77 Billion by 2027”. That’s from Dec 2021. If you’re so down on AVO what are you doing here?

Positive update! Sounds like there are minimal major technical issues to resolve, so this news represents a further reduction in risk. If summer = August, we’re just 3-4 months away. As I’ve said before, the IP alone must be worth a lot more than the current mcap now.

So at 22-23k ozs (roughly one quarter of annual guidance, at the low end) the AISCs would have been about $1500 - still poor but much closer to what’s expected. Gives just a little glimmer that Q2 should be substantially better. To think this mostly stems from not managing the contractor adequately - a major management failing that DB should own up to.

Does anyone have a view on Pasofino as a better short-term bet than HUM? At $50 per oz post-DFS on the Dugbe M&I resource, Pasofino would get an uprate of c2.5x from current levels.

Ok, so what’s going on? The absence of news on BR is very strange to say the least. We know assays are slowly being returned but nothing for ages. We know drill pad locations have been approved but no formal announcement. We know some more holes were being drilled but no further info given. The timescale for the IP survey is well past.

If I had to guess I’d say the IP survey has caused a rethink on the next holes, and meanwhile the small number of assays is not newsworthy. It’s just so strange to hear nothing when CB is normally so effusive.

Its 23% of operating profit, not revenue......