Member Info for iWantThatOne

Thanks for your answers, all. FWIW I also think the resource will be economic at a medium-long term copper price and worth well above the current sp, so a clear hold until a buyer emerges.

Ok, so it’d be good to get a sense of how people will feel about the forthcoming Racecourse JORC when it’s revealed. I’m on record as saying I think it’s > 1Mt of Cu, maybe 1.25 Mt but well below 2Mt. If that were the case would you be comfortable? Very unhappy? And would you buy, sell or hold your shares?

I do feel that if Colin Bird were asked why the strategy for Bushranger seems to have changed so much he would have some justification for repeating the famous phrase: “Events, dear boy, events”.

Well folks, as the UK and world heads towards recession we know what this will do to the AFC share price - put a rocket under it! Just like during Covid lockdowns, though not so drastically, money will move out of traditional stocks and into hydrogen.

John, I agree partially with you - up to 1.5Mt at RC only. However that doesn’t make it uneconomic - we know a long life of mine at low grades can work perfectly well (from the original model results). This amount of copper shouldn’t be seen as a negative.

The RNS today didn’t contain compelling grades by any means but the intention to announce a maiden resource at Ascot is interesting - they wouldn’t do that if it contained negligible amounts. And if it can be mined without having to contribute to capital costs other than pre-stripping of waste, then that’s great.

This bloody term sheet has been a disaster. I just don’t accept that it was necessary, and the likely consequences were clear - though worse than I imagined. Existing shareholders diluted way too much, and the chance to participate in the forthcoming capital raise (but to what extent?) will scarcely mitigate.

Solid but unspectacular, I’d say. Revenue up 9% but would have been more if the dollar hadn’t appreciated so much, or if Amazon Prime day hadn’t moved into H2. I suppose the most important bit is that Paul Larbey expects BGO to comfortably meet full year expectations.

Happy with that RNS - good lengths of mineralisation in virgin territory, so all additional. Yes it’s low grade with significant capex but we’ve seen other resources like this sold recently, so I’m sure there is demand. Hopefully the modelling is very well advanced and not just about to start - as Colin says in the RNS! Ascot still proving enigmatic.

I don’t buy Colin’s argument that China is keeping its citizens indoors under the guise of Covid mostly to keep a lid on inflation, but he’s clearly right that fear and caution stalk the market. I think the turn in commodity prices is far off - Goldman Sachs (I think it is) suggests copper will still be under $4/lb in 12-18m. But we can’t buck macro trends - as Colin says, we just need to keep our heads down and prove up Bushranger and see where we are.

The debate about 2Mt is of less importance for me, it’s all about what value the resource has. Look at Caravel’s recent pre-FS - 1.45Mt at 0.24% with a cut-off of 0.10%, with an NPV of A$1.0bn. Very similar to BR in my view. I don’t see why the mining and processing costs etc per tonne will differ significantly for Bushranger, albeit we almost certainly have more stripping as we’ll have a much deeper mine. Therefore a decent NPV is surely there. Let’s arrive at a figure and a break-even price per pound and then see where we are.

Since you ask, Curious, I won’t be selling if the company still prevaricates at the AGM. I teally don’t see what that gains apart from releasing pent up frustration from the last few years. In fact I think it would be madness to pass up the opportunity to finally profit from this technology, even if it slips a bit further - unless people believe it simply will never come to fruition. At not much over £100m market cap a working system would be hugely undervalued, and how many other opportunities offer the chance to increase your return significantly (IMO) within just a few months?

Something I’ve not seen discussed, though I may have missed it......since the first conceptual model in July 2021 the Australian dollar has weakened by about 8% vs the US dollar. That means more A$ for each lb of copper sold. So revenue goes up but costs, which are all in A$ for BR, remain constant. Thanks to that operational leverage, the NPV in A$ goes up significantly. At the same time the break-even point drops - no longer US$5 per lb, say, but maybe $4 (say). No doubt there will be arguments made about long term vs short term FX rates, and of course AUD vs GBP, but it’s a point worth noting.

Why would the market “punish severely”? At RC the boundary has now been established and the modelling can be finalised. Ascot drilling continues - we knew that. Footrot news is ambiguous - modest mineralisation noted but then an allusion to multiple porphyries. A low key RNS for me, a shame Footrot hasn’t blown the doors off right away but otherwise nothing to be depressed about.

I think we LTH need to gang up to swamp the board with positive messages..... the miserable crew have held sway for far too long with their relentlessly negative crap. Any new investor will be scared away by all the self-indulgent, repetitive talking down of their own investments. Come on folks!

Well it does now look like AFC has decoupled slightly from the rest of the hydrogen sector and is languishing at the back of the pack - down more than anyone else over 6m and 12m, though ITM pips AFC over one month by falling 41.1% vs 31.8%. For me this suggests an obvious arbitrage opportunity - either now or soon if it falls further behind. I don't see that AFC's lack of sales at the moment is really any different from the other companies, whose sales also leave a lot to be desired. Not a ramp, just an observation.

I think some people have an exaggerated sense of how long it takes for a buyer to do due diligence and buy a deposit! This is not a multi-billion $ purchase, it’s small beer in the scheme of things. Any longer than 6 weeks scrutinising data would be too long, then you’re either into going through the offer and buyer’s governance process or else a rejection and going through it again with other potential buyers. I’d be very surprised if all this went beyond Q1 at the latest.

Jeez, there are a load of bedwetters out in force today. “Adam Bond hasn’t done this, he hasn’t done that”. What he’s done is develop a much better S-series fuel cell that has rendered null and void the sales that were previously coming to fruition. Julich, Acciona - they’ve all changed their minds and want to wait for the S series. Unfortunate, maybe, but this continual lambasting of Bond is laughable.

And 8p? Really? Based on what, some dubious graph? At 8p the IP will be hugely undervalued but if it does get anywhere near that level there’ll be so much money coming in that the SP will shoot right back up again. AFC is clearly highly correlated with the rest of the hydrogen sector so it’s only going down there if everyone else is.

Why would “tens of millions” of the Koroussa loan have been used to support Yanfolila? Say you have 18k ozs in Q2 with an AISC of $2000 and POG $1800 - that’s $3.6m net loss. Then you have VAT not being recovered. But I can’t see tens of millions there, provided Q3 picks up sharpish.

Just a thought - I presume it’s quite common for large mining companies to buy deposits for mining not now but at some time in the distant future - just like in house construction. We know BR is a sizeable deposit. Even IF of low economic value at today’s spot price (and I’m not saying it is) BR must have a reasonable value with the intent of putting it to one side until the copper price reaches its likely higher permanent price. So even a 1-1.5Mt deposit (say) at $4 per lb has a value that a major mining company would be prepared to pay for. That may be fairly nominal - $50m? (no idea) - but that purchase price is small change for these guys. Those experts out there - am I right?

I don’t share Lucky’s angst over the full results RNS.

For several months now I’ve been saying they don’t know what they’ve got at Ascot - they’ve drilled just eight holes and only found modest amounts of copper - though the geophysics are very encouraging. It’s entirely reasonable to surmise that there may be more deep-lying copper or gold. However right now I’m ascribing no value to Ascot but hope to be pleasantly surprised.

Racecourse - no new news today, all as expected. I don’t think we can read anything into the “global” comment - they’re simply saying it’ll be clear how RC stacks up against other deposits/porphyries around the world once the modelling is complete.

I suspect CB has simply poorly explained why Kalengwa is a no-go - perhaps it has proven to be less economic than hoped for, to the extent that the lack of provision of power is the straw that breaks the camel’s back and means the overall project doesn’t meet threshold return on capital targets. It’s disappointing it hasn’t worked out but there were no guarantees.

I think the news that no placing is imminently required is the biggest take-away from today.

Very positive spin today. “Summer” can surely only include July and August. OK I’ll give them till the Autumnal Equinox. 83 days and counting.