Member Info for iWantThatOne

Oliversydney, what do you expect CB to say when the company is deep in the modelling, working hard to confirm the size of the resources, possibly having off-the-record discussions with majors but unable to give any hints due to market rules? He has to stay quiet. Anyone who thinks this is because CB has lost faith in his own company or because it’s not worth shouting about is misunderstanding the situation. Or being mischievous.

So despite telling us how the contractor was now fully operational back in Q2 they are still not performing - hmm. HUM’s inability to manage the contractor is woeful.

There is still value here, not least from a takeover and maybe selling the three mines for what each may be worth. A Dugbe sale for peanuts would at least eat into the debt a little bit (please don’t think you can play any role in developing a mine as big as that, Dan Betts). What would Koroussa be worth as a stand-alone mine from mid-2023?

Am I the only one who thought that 2MT was across the whole of the licence? That was reported back quite clearly, I thought. But that’s not to be sniffed at: 1.25Mt for RC (say), with optionality over Ascot and anywhere else that’s contributing to the 2Mt (capex-free after RC).....

So at 272.5p the analyst at Singer thought these shares were a “knockout”. And here we are more than 10% lower. Go figure!

Howezap, yes higher capex can be recovered more quickly from higher volumes of ore going through the plant. Only thing is, based on the last figures we saw, BR’s opex per lb of copper is much higher than Eva’s too. I admit I haven’t studied Eva in detail other than to note their cash costs per tonne seem very low. So I stand by what I said - the higher throughput at RC at higher opex would not compensate for the higher capex, in comparison with Eva. Of course it all depends on updated detailed costings so currently this is all IMHO.

Andrew, your calcs look right but note that the capex for the Harmony project is less than US$600m. For BR Mr Bird has already suggested it’s at least $1bn and likely a lot more. That’ll change the calculation quite significantly. Plus BR’s cash flows will be over a longer period and discounted more on average. Still, it’s a very encouraging comparator.

I don’t share your concerns, Solow. UHB will be holding AVO’s feet to the fire when seeking first patient treatment by H2 next year. The machine and treatment room are in situ so the delays that led to this point don’t apply (though other factors may pop up). There’s plenty other things to do alongside getting the treatment protocols ready, and I don’t suppose the company has been avoiding the manufacturing question - I’m sure we’ll hear something pretty soon. But we don’t want another Thule, where the manufacturing arrangement is cancelled (we assume) because the sales haven’t yet arrived to make it worthwhile.

True but the 25p warrants should fund a reasonable portion of the next year, I think?

Some very strange (IMO) trading activity today - lots more sales than purchases, including three very large 400,000 share trades near the end of the day that look like sales. Why would anyone be doing that? Unless the milestone of first patient treatment looks too far away, perhaps? Or perhaps we’ll see equivalent buys tomorrow, with investors now buying within ISAs whilst selling out in their taxed accounts?

I think it’ll take a little while Jayber - even LTHs may not have seen the news yet: And I don’t think it’s a well known stock - yet. But £124m mcap for a fully working proton therapy machine - just my opinion but that’s crazily low!

Ha ha you beauty! Well done AVO. Come on Mildrew, are you opening the champagne tonight?

Interesting interview. It certainly sounds like 500Mt of ore now, he said it both ways - 20 Mt pa x 25 years and 25x20. Personally I suspect a slightly lower grade than you Andrew so maybe 1.2-1.3Mt but these.are all guesstimates.

Several questions though. Did you get the impression that the infill drilling has been done already? He certainly seemed to indicate that additional drilling has been done to improve the granularity of the model. But now I’m confused about the large anomalies that they’ve decided not to drill - which is he talking about? Ascot? I note there was no mention of it, though he talked about the sale of the whole of BR, so do we assume Ascot will be left as is? He certainly said they could continue to drill the anomalies to prove up the 2Mt but won’t now, which supports the conclusion that RC is << 2Mt.

Overall he certainly sounded quietly confident.

£28m mcap for a company producing good quantities of gold and >>1m tonnes of copper in the ground? You’re having a laugh.

Just logged in again to see if the usual moaners and whingers are still at it. Unfortunately it seems they’re worst than ever. What is it about “2022 will mostly be a year of product development” didn’t you understand? Perhaps you missed the global recession that’s coming? Or the fact that all hydrogen companies are well down. Then it’s “what if the tech doesn’t work?”. Of course it bloody works! Extreme E, Power Tower testing in advance of trials, the early testing of the ABB units. Get a grip, you idiots. The announcements will come soon enough, either stop moaning or sell up and go away.

Great news today! And the revenue contribution will be a significant step towards the “hundreds of millions” of revenue goal. Well done all at BGO.

Hi Howezap, the cut-off certainly does affect the resource estimate. With a 0.3% cut- off, anything below 0.3% is “waste”, anything above is ore. When the cut-off is reduced to 0.15%, the material between 0.15% and 0.3% is now treated as ore, with the amount of waste (and strip ratio) correspondingly reducing.

Going back to the July 2021 model, we originally had 71Mt at 0.44% yielding 0.31Mt of Cu. When the cut-off is reduced to 0.15%, with no other changes, the amount of ore increases from 71Mt to 162Mt, now yielding 0.41Mt of Cu. It’s all there in the RNS. That’s why I think we probably have more than 500Mt of ore - we have one third of that already from the JORC’d resource, with P1 and P2 drilling in addition. Cheers.

Pasofino (and HUM) is valued as it is because nobody is allowing for the possibility of Dugbe being sold. All the market is seeing is a big mine that requires a ton of capex: from where, nobody knows. If and when Dugbe is sold then both Pasofino and HUM should indeed jump up overnight. Unless a load of speculators jump in early, I can’t see Dugbe being the driver of a re-rate here in the short term.

Howezap, I think your argument is flawed. Firstly, it is only the original 71Mt resource (@0.3% cut-off) that has been measured at 0.44%. That gives about 0.3Mt of Cu. Then we already know that dropping from a 0.3% cut-off to 0.15% for that same resource adds an extra 0.1Mt of Cu, to give 0.41Mt. That’s from the published open-pit modelling July 2021. (That resource then averages about 0.295% btw).

Since then, hardly any assays have been around the 0.4% mark. Any significant runs of mineralization have been lower - 0.2%, 0.3%, etc. So it’s simply not possible to get to 0.44% overall for the whole of RC. In fact I’d be very surprised if we weren’t at 0.2-0.25%, allowing for the “averaging down” effect of the lowest grade ore (0.15% etc).

I also wouldn’t be surprised to see the 20Mt x 25 year statement from CB turn out to be 25Mt x 25 - because it’s financially beneficial to crunch through rock at a faster rate. I think it’s quite possible that 625Mt is down there, given the 0.15% cut-off. You are quite right, of course, to say overall tonnage of Cu is the most important thing, provided the low grades don’t make it economically unviable.

Meldrew, Covid started early 2020 and we’ve been reasonably comfortably living with it for almost a year now. The Board clearly did not mean it will take another six months from now!

Howezap, of those choices I’d struggle to say I am even in the “Camp Realistic” at the moment. I say that because I have no clue whatsoever how large the Ascot resource is. Apart from the discovery hole and perhaps one other, the results so far seem rather iffy. Further - whilst Ascot wouldn’t have capital costs to cover there would be plenty of stripping required, and also the joint processing plant would have to be very large because I can see RC fully utilising it for 25 years anyway. (Unless Ascot is left intact, to be mined way into the future when, no doubt, copper will be $20/lb!). So whilst additional Ascot tonnage is very helpful, I’m just not sure that it’s as valuable as if it were all found in RC alone.

Having said all the above, good P3 results from Ascot - perhaps even to the point where it’s a second RC, or smaller version - would make a huge difference. That’s why I believe we need a P3. I’m not too bothered about the other outcrops, though it can’t hurt to sink a few exploratory holes.